Bank UOB Indonesia expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate to a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) this year. Economic acceleration of Indonesia comes despite expected slowing global economic growth. Kevin Lam, President Director at Bank UOB Indonesia, stated infrastructure development and the government's economic policy packages will boost the economy and generate employment thus stimulating household consumption.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2016, down from a revised 5.19 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter but in line with forecasts. BPS Head Suhariyanto said Indonesian economic growth remained subdued amid bleak and uneven growth in major trading partners. Secondly, slowing government spending realization and a cut in spending (to prevent Indonesia's budget deficit from widening too much) affected the GDP growth rate of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) expects Indonesia's motorcycle sales to rebound in 2017. Based on the latest estimates, sales of two-wheelers will rise 10 percent (y/y) to 6.6 million next year from an estimated 6 million vehicles in 2016. This year sales are expected to drop slightly over 7 percent (y/y) compared to 6.48 million sold motorcycles in 2015. AISI Chairman Gunadi Sindhuwinata said there are several reasons that should cause rebounding motorcycle sales next year.

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On 16 October 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy and political-related topics such as the new Energy minister, GDP growth, credit ratings, the food and modern retail sectors, property prices for foreign buyers, cement sales, coal price, car sales, and more.

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Indonesia is expected to end the prolonged economic slowdown, finally, in 2016. Between 2011 and 2015 the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) continued to slide amid sluggish global growth, tumbling commodity prices and domestic changes (higher interest rate environment in 2013-2015 to combat sharply rising inflation as a result of subsidized fuel price reforms). In 2016 this prolonged slowdown will most likely end. Based on the latest forecasts, the Indonesian economy should expand by around 5.0 percent (y/y) this year, up from a growth pace of 4.7 percent in 2015.

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In its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, titled "Reducing Vulnerabilities", the World Bank stated that it projects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017 mainly supported by rising private consumption, a relatively stable rupiah rate, fiscal support (including higher personal income tax threshold), and accelerating government spending. Overall, the World Bank expects growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific to remain resilient over the next three years.

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Regional development bank Asian Development Bank (ADB) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the years 2016 and 2017, although the Manila-based institution emphasizes that Southeast Asia's largest economy remains growing at a healthy pace. In its latest Asian Development Outlook 2016 the ADB cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth to 5.0 percent (y/y) in 2016 (from 5.2 percent previously) and to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2017 (from 5.5 percent previously).

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Although the economy of Indonesia will continue to face challenges in 2017, there are a couple of matters that give rise to optimism about accelerating economic growth. These were the conclusions drawn at the Entrepreneur Networking Forum that was held by Bank Tabungan Negara Pensiunan Nasional in Bandung (West Java) on Wednesday (14/09). Although expectations were recently revised down (due to government budget cuts), Indonesian economic growth is still set to rebound in 2016 after having experienced several years of slowdown.

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On 11 September 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economy-related topics such as Indonesia's stocks and rupiah, looming revisions of the 2009 Mining Law, the G20 summit, GDP growth, the coal mining industry, corruption, the tax amnesty program, and more.

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The central government of Indonesia and Commission XI within Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) agreed to set the nation's economic growth target at 5.1 percent (y/y) in the draft state budget for 2017. This target is 0.2 percentage points below the GDP growth target that was mentioned by Indonesian President Joko Widodo in a speech last month (based on a financial note) and is also below the 5.2 GDP growth target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Less optimistic forecasts are especially caused by a cut in government spending.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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According to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), domestic cement sales have fallen 5.8 percent to 3.3 million tons in August 2013 (from the same month last year). Being an important indicator of economic expansion (as cement sales inform about the development of property and infrastructure projects in the country), these lower cement sales confirm the slowing pace of economic growth in Indonesia. Compared to July 2013, cement sales in Indonesia fell by a massive 32 percent.

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In its most recent report regarding Indonesia's economy, the World Bank states that high logistic costs form a serious impediment to the country's economic growth. The report, titled Annual Logistics Report, is compiled by Bandung Institute of Technology’s Research Center for Logistics and Supply Chains, the Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI), the STC Group, Panteia Research Institute, and the World Bank Indonesia Office. The report provides an analysis and overview of the progress made in tackling the problem of logistics in Indonesia.

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In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.

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Although many global indices were up, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) fell a total of 2.93 percent during last week's trading. One important issue on global indices is the tapering off of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE3). On 17 and 18 September, the next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled, which is expected to discuss the future of QE3. Notably, as the meeting comes closer, most global indices in fact rise. Thus, market players seem to have become less concerned about an end to QE3.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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