Finance minister Chatib Basri said that the Indonesian government should revise its outlook for GDP growth in 2014 from 6.4% (mentioned in the 2014 State Budget) to about 6.0%. A more realistic outlook, which is in line with the current global and domestic financial context, is needed. Global uncertainty due to the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program has resulted in capital outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia. Various countries, developed and emerging ones, have lowered outlooks for 2014 GDP growth.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that Indonesia's inflation rate in August will reach about 1.3 percent (month to month), implying that the annual inflation rate will exceed 8.9 percent (year on year) in the same month. Prices of several commodities and horticultural products are still not showing a decrease in prices. These products include beef, chicken meat and onions. Thus, Bank Indonesia requests that the central and regional governments take great care in safeguarding the country's food supplies.

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The macroeconomic assumptions that have been formulated in the 2014 State Budget Draft by the government of Indonesia are not considered too realistic by several analysts. Although it is understood that one should set a high standard in order to maximize efforts, analysts feel that - given the current problematic economic context in Asian emerging economies as well as global economic turmoil - the government is far too optimistic, particularly because the government will have to devote part of its attention to the elections in mid-2014.

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According to a Bank Indonesia report that was released on Monday (19/08), consumer confidence in Indonesia has weakened after the government decided to raise prices of subsidized fuels in June 2013. The country's consumer confidence index fell 8.7 points to 108¹ in July from 117 points in June. Higher fuel prices led to higher transportation costs that subsequently made many retailers increase prices of products, thus impacting on Indonesian households' purchasing power. In July, the annual inflation rate accelerated to 8.61 percent.

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Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, decided today (15/08) to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent. In recent days, heavy speculation emerged about whether Bank Indonesia would raise the BI rate for the third consecutive time in three months as the country is plagued by higher inflation (8.61 percent year-on-year in July 2013) and a weakening rupiah. Reluctance to raise the interest rate again seems to indicate that the Bank gives priority to economic growth, which has slid to a three-year low at 5.81 percent in Q2-2013.

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Indonesia's central bank expects that the country's monthly inflation rate will ease to below one percent in August. However, in order to meet this expectation the bank stresses that there needs to be an improvement in the food product supply through imports and good distribution practice. The latter, particularly, is problematic due to Indonesia's lack of quality and quantity in infrastructure. In July, monthly inflation rose 3.29 percent due to the start of the new school year and impact of higher subsidized fuel prices.

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Although it was clear that Indonesia would see a high inflation rate in July 2013 as the impact of higher fuel prices would kick in, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) was surprised to see the figure go up to 3.29 percent. Currently, Indonesia's annual inflation rate stands at 8.61 percent. Bank Indonesia's governor Agus Martowardojo said that this rate is far outside the central bank's target range and announced that the institution expects annual inflation to stay above 8%  throughout 2013, higher than its previous assumption of 7.8% at end-2013.

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Today (02/08), Indonesia's bureau for statistics announced that economic growth of Indonesia in the second quarter of 2013 reached 5.81 percent (YoY), which is the lowest growth rate since Q3-2010 and also lower than most analysts as well as the Indonesian government expected. The GDP figure reflects Indonesia's cooling economy. For the fourth consecutive quarter, the rate has weakened as the country has been under pressure: high inflation, a widening trade deficit and a weakening rupiah.

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The Indonesian government assumes that the recently increased prices of subsidized fuels will translate into lower oil imports from the third quarter of 2013. Lower oil imports will result in lower demand for foreign currencies and, as such, will support Indonesia's currency, the rupiah. The value of the IDR rupiah is also influenced by market participants' expectation of inflation. Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) projects inflation to rise to 2.77 percent in July, and to slow down to 1 percent in both August and September.

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According to Finance minister Chatib Basri, the Indonesian government expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to have grown by 6.1 percent in the first six months of 2013. This forecast falls short of the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth assumption in the state budget (APBN). Basri stated that the lower outcome is due to global factors, such as slowing economic growth in China and India. But the government's assumption is more optimistic than the forecast of the central bank, which expects growth between 5.1 and 5.9 percent.

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The rate of inflation in March 2014 demonstrated that the ongoing downward trend persists. In the reporting month of March 2014, inflation was recorded at 0.08 percent (month-to-month) or 7.32 percent (year-on-year), down from the rates recorded in the previous two months at 1.07 percent (mtm) or 8.22 percent (yoy) in January and 0.26 percent (mtm) or 7.75 percent (yoy) in February. The declining inflation trend is further evidenced by a lower rate recorded in March 2014 than the historical average over the past six years at 0.24 percent (mtm).

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At 15:00 local Jakarta time on Tuesday (01/04), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate as well as the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) have shown a positive performance so far. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.64 percent to IDR 11,288 per US dollar, while the IHSG climbed 2.15 percent to 4,871.38. A number of internal and external factors contributed to this remarkable performance today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 11,447 per US dollar on Thursday (27/03) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The currency's strong performance in February and the first half of March, supported by Indonesia's easing current account deficit and inflation, has met resistance due to global concern about the aggressive US Federal Reserve monetary tightening (winding down its quantitative easing program by another chunk of USD $10 billion as well as possible US interest rate hikes in 2015 and 2016).

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On Wednesday (26/03), most emerging Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar as the region's shares hit a two-week high on upbeat US economic data in combination with reduced concern over the crisis in Crimea (Ukraine). However, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was one of the exceptions to this trend on today's trading day. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.16 percent to IDR 11,412 at 16:15 local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan recovered some of its earlier losses.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, said that its latest annual survey on economic prospects and the business climate in Indonesia indicates an optimistic view. Respondents in the survey, mostly CEOs and Division Heads at financial institutions, companies, government and media, were asked 11 questions about the Indonesian economy, reformation and prospects for the next five years. Andrew Steel, Managing Director Head of Asia Pacific Corporate Ratings Group, presented results of the survey.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.

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A shock wave went through Indonesia's financial markets on Friday (14/03) after 15:00 local Jakarta time, when it became known that Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is joining the presidential race for the July 2014 election. Moreover, he can count on full support from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), one of Indonesia's largest political parties, led by chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. Few people doubt that Jokowi - current Governor of Jakarta - will be elected as the next president of Indonesia.

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After months of uncertainty and speculation, Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) has finally declared to run for the Indonesian presidency in the presidential election scheduled for 9 July 2014. Jokowi is backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), one of the largest political parties in Indonesia, led by chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri. On Friday (14/03), Megawati released a statement in which she announced to fully support Jokowi in the upcoming elections.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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