The Indonesian rupiah has been appreciated significantly over the past two days versus the US dollar. By 12:00 noon local Jakarta time on Wednesday (07/12), Indonesia's currency had strengthened 0.29 percent to IDR 13,331 per US dollar (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index). Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) appreciated 0.51 percent to IDR 13,336 per US dollar today. Lets zoom in on this performance.

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Contrary to most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index opened in the green zone on Monday morning (05/12). While, most markets are plagued by the outcome of Italy's referendum on Sunday (and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announcing his resignation), Indonesian stocks still seem to continue with the relief rally after the peaceful anti-Ahok demonstration on Friday (02/12). However, rupiah weakness, particularly as the US Federal Reserve may raise rates can limit the rise of local stocks.

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While most Asian stock indices were in the red zone on Friday (02/12), Indonesian stocks bucked the trend. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.91 percent to 5,245.96 points, while the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,512 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). While global investors were cautious ahead of the new US payroll data (to be released later on Friday), domestic investors poured money into Indonesian stocks. What explains this performance today?

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Indonesia's manufacturing sector continued to contract in November 2016 (the second straight month of contraction), albeit at a slower pace. Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to a reading of 49.7 points last month from 48.7 points in October 2016 (a reading above 50.0 signals expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). Contraction in November was largely blamed on subdued demand and floods in parts of Indonesia.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are under pressure on Thursday (24/11). Amid rising expectation of a Fed Funds Rate hike before the year-end, the US dollar rose to a 13 year-high implying all emerging market currencies are sliding. The Indonesian rupiah, one of the more vulnerable emerging market currencies, had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,542 per US dollar by 10:20 am local Jakarta time. Meanwhile, the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 0.85 percent to 5,167.87 points by the same time.

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There is plenty of news that is impacting on Asia's financial markets this morning: a big earthquake (as well as tsunami alert) occurred in Japan's Fukushima, the crude oil price surged to a three-week high, US stocks touched record high levels overnight, while Indonesian authorities officially banned another "anti-Ahok protest" rally. Most Asian stocks are rising on Tuesday morning (22/11) although Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index started in the red. However, the index quickly entered green territory some time later. Meanwhile, the rupiah remains under pressure. Lets take a closer look.

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Indonesian stocks continued to decline on Tuesday (15/11), for the third consecutive day. After a promising start - Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rose about 1 percent in today's first trading session - the index finished the day down 0.73 percent to 5,078.50 points. Key matters that cause this selloff are the US dollar approaching a 14-year high as well as expectation of rising inflation in the USA now Donald Trump has been elected next US president. This cocktail gives rise to capital outflows from emerging markets to the USA.

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Donald Trump becoming US president causes investors to re-evaluate emerging market assets, and Indonesia is among the biggest victims. Trump is eager to make the USA "great again", partly by using the protectionist approach. Considering Trump may be supported by the Republican-controlled US Congress, investors see a real chance for realization of Trump's plans (which include infrastructure development, tax cuts, as well as the exiting of free trade and environment deals). This has a big impact on emerging markets.

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Emerging markets in Asia, including Indonesia, are plagued by sharply depreciating currencies on Friday morning (11/11). Demand for the US dollar is high on the "Trump effect". With a Republican-controlled US Congress and pragmatic businessman Donald Trump in the White House, markets have become positive about US economic growth in the years ahead. Meanwhile, it feeds the likelihood of faster and more frequent Fed Funds rate hikes during Trump's administration. The Indonesian rupiah was down 5.53 percent to IDR 13,865 per US dollar by 09:18 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Not only were we surprised by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, but also by markets' positive reaction to Trump's win on Tuesday. It shows that most analysts' opinions and opinion polls fail to reflect reality accurately (similar to the Brexit case earlier this year). Today (10/11) the turnaround continued in Asia, extending the performance of European and US stocks overnight. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index opened 0.79 percent higher on Thursday morning (10/11), while the rupiah has not really moved yet.

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Today (18/03), the World Bank released the March 2014 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled Investment in Flux. The report discusses key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these developments in a longer-term and global context. Secondly, it provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, as well as analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. Click here for further information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia.

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A shock wave went through Indonesia's financial markets on Friday (14/03) after 15:00 local Jakarta time, when it became known that Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) is joining the presidential race for the July 2014 election. Moreover, he can count on full support from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), one of Indonesia's largest political parties, led by chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. Few people doubt that Jokowi - current Governor of Jakarta - will be elected as the next president of Indonesia.

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After months of uncertainty and speculation, Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) has finally declared to run for the Indonesian presidency in the presidential election scheduled for 9 July 2014. Jokowi is backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), one of the largest political parties in Indonesia, led by chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri. On Friday (14/03), Megawati released a statement in which she announced to fully support Jokowi in the upcoming elections.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the February 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On the last day of the week (07/03), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell 0.04 percent to 4,685.89 points as market participants engaged in profit taking (cashing in on the recent strong performance of the IHSG) amid resurging concerns about the situation in Ukraine. On the other hand, losses were limited as investors are upbeat about the improved outlook for the global economy. US data were good as the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in three months.

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Although the gap on 4,575-4,579 was closed, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was given limited room to go up further as the performance of global stock indices did not support a bigger rebound. On the contrary, despite the 0.37 percent rise of the IHSG to 4,601.28 points on Tuesday (04/03), there are still pressures that may push the index down in the days ahead. Amid the political conflict in the Ukraine, Wall Street fell on Monday (03/03), which led to profit taking in the first trading session.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated (0.15 percent) to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Thursday (27/02), 15:00 local Jakarta time, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo stated yesterday to expect the currency to stabilize near current levels in line with its economic fundamentals ahead of looming further Federal Reserve tapering. Analysts estimate that Indonesia's trade balance might deteriorate in January 2014 as the impact of the mineral-ore export ban kicks in.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is optimistic that the country's currency will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2014. Executive Director at the Economic and Monetary Policy Department of Bank Indonesia Juda Agung said that there are two factors that impact positively on the performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate: the improved global economy and strengthening domestic economic fundamentals. However, Agung declined to estimate the value of the rupiah by the end of Q1-2014.

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Foreign confidence in Indonesia's capital markets seems to be growing further after foreign investors continued to expand their stock portfolios last week. In February 2014 (up to Friday 21/02), foreigners purchased IDR 36.0 trillion (USD $3.1 billion) worth of stocks and sold IDR 29.3 trillion (USD $2.5 billion), resulting in net foreign buying of 6.7 trillion (USD $570.2 million) in the first three weeks of February 2014. When foreign net buying of January 2014 is added, total net foreign buying reached IDR 9.0 trillion (USD $766.0 million).

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