According to Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati the economy of Indonesia will grow 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016, slightly below the target that was set by the central government in the 2016 State Budget (5.2 percent y/y). This slightly less rosy view is caused by the decision to cut government spending by IDR 137.6 trillion (approx. USD $10.4 billion) this year in order to combat a widening budget deficit (that is mainly caused by weaker-than-targeted tax revenue). A cut in state spending means that the government has less funds to boost economic growth.

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At the latest policy meeting, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) not only adopted a new benchmark monetary tool (the BI seven-day reverse repo rate) but also announced that it cut its forecast for economic growth in 2016. Earlier, Bank Indonesia estimated Indonesia's GDP growth in full-year 2016 in the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y). However, it slightly cut its projection to the range of 4.9 - 5.3 percent (y/y) due to the government's decision to curtail expenditure by IDR 133.8 trillion (approx. USD $10.1 billion).

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After six years of steady decline, the Indonesian rupiah is likely to have appreciated against the US dollar at the end of 2016. So far this year, the currency of Indonesia has appreciated 4.8 percent to IDR 13,126 against the greenback (Bloomberg Dollar Index) supported by capital inflows, particularly into government bonds and stocks as well as the delay in further monetary tightening in the USA. Although the rupiah should depreciate a bit as we go towards the end of the year, it is set to finish the year at a stronger level than it started.

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On 7 August 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's Q2-2016 GDP growth result, July inflation and manufacturing, the tax amnesty program, coal mining, monetary and fiscal policies, the tobacco industry, and much more.

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There is plenty of room for optimism about the direction of Indonesia's economic growth this year. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Friday (05/08) that the economy of Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded by 5.18 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, a figure that exceeded all expectations and forms a remarkable jump from the 4.66 percent (y/y) GDP growth figure in Q2-2015 and 4.91 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016. As a result, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is currently near record levels.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.18 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, beating analysts' forecasts and accelerating strongly from the (downward revised) 4.91 percent (y/y) GDP growth pace that was recorded in the preceding quarter. Data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), released this morning (05/08), also show that on a quarterly non-seasonally adjusted basis, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 4.02 percent in Q2-2016.

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In today's cabinet reshuffle (27/07) economist Sri Mulyani Indrawati was appointed as Indonesia's new finance minister, replacing Bambang Brodjonegoro. One day earlier, when few were aware about this surprise move, Sri Mulyani spoke briefly to reporters - in her position as managing director and chief operating officer of the World Bank - about the Indonesian and global economy. She sees two matters that negatively affect Indonesia's economic growth: slowing economic growth in China and the Brexit issue.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth to reach between 4.9 and 5.0 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2016, only rising slightly from GDP growth realization of 4.92 percent in the first quarter. Growth is forecast to remain subdued as Indonesia's household consumption has not improved markedly yet (reflected by low demand for credit). Meanwhile, the global economic context remains plagued by uncertainties, particularly ongoing concern about the economies of the USA, China and Europe.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2016 to improve slightly to 4.9 - 5.0 percent (y/y) compared to the 4.92 percent (y/y) GDP growth realization in the first quarter of the year. Regarding growth in full-year 2016, Bank Indonesia remains optimistic that a 5.4 percent growth pace can be achieved supported by a looser monetary policy (that should boost demand for credit). Bank Indonesia cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percentage point to 6.50 percent in the June policy meeting.

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The World Bank released the June 2016 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report on Monday (20/06). Recently, the Washington-based institution took a rigorous step by downgrading its 2016 global economic growth forecast from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y). This is a significant downgrade that was primarily due to the weak performance of commodity exporters. Despite this downgrade the World Bank still sees a resilient Indonesian economy, reflected by a GDP growth forecast of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017.

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As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Analysts expect that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) will end mixed today (20/08) after yesterday's large plunge amid heavy market concerns. Yesterday, the index dropped 5.58 percent to 4,313.52 points, the lowest since October 2011. Indonesia posted a current account deficit in the second quarter of 2013, while Thailand entered into a recession. The MSCI Emerging Market index¹, which includes both countries, fell 1.4 percent to a six-week low. Below a short overview of factors that caused negative sentiments on Indonesia's market.

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For several weeks now, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been experiencing a sharp correction. As I wrote in my previous columns, market participants have been waiting for several important macro economic data, to wit Indonesia's economic growth figure for the second quarter of 2013, the July 2013 inflation rate, and the country's trade balance statistics for the first six months of this year. Now all above results have been released, we can analyze further the impact of these macroeconomic results as well as investors' reaction to it.

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The government of Indonesia has the ambition to reduce Indonesia's unemployment rate to about 5.7 percent in 2014. This ambition was pronounced by Armida Alisjahbana, the minister of National Development Planning. According to the latest data released by Statistics Indonesia, the country's unemployment rate currently stands at 5.92 percent. The minister stressed that the unemployment target of 6 percent that was set in Indonesia's National Medium Term Development Plan to be reached in 2014, has already been achieved.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

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Cement sales in Indonesia grew by seven percent to 32.9 million tons in the period January to July 2013. This pace of growth is significantly lower compared to the double-digit cement growth rate last year and thus forms another sign of cooling economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy (cement sales are a good indicator to measure the state of economic growth of a country). A slowdown in domestic cement sales is likely to continue in the second half of 2013, partly due to a decline in infrastructure projects.

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Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

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Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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Growth of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Indonesia has continued to slow down in the first six months of 2013. In the first quarter of 2013, GFCF rose 5.78 percent but in the second quarter the pace fell to 4.67 percent. These results are much lower than last year's quarterly growth rates as can be seen in the table below. In fact, the growth rate in Q2-2013 constitutes the lowest growth rate in the last 13 quarters. In Q2-2013, all sectors experienced weakening investments except for domestic machinery and equipment.

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