In response to the release of Indonesia’s official Q2-2015 GDP growth figure, which puts the country’s economic growth pace at 4.67 percent year-on-year (a six-year low), President Joko Widodo said the economy of Indonesia is bound to improve in the second quarter of the year, particularly from September onwards. Widodo said slowing economic growth was the result of troubled government budget absorption at both the central level and regional level. Moreover, the country has been plagued by external factors.

Read more ›

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (05/08) that the Indonesian economy grew 4.67 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. However, the result was in line with expectation. Most analysts assumed that economic growth would continue to slow as there has been no rebound in global commodity prices, interest rates remained high, people’s purchasing power weakened, government spending remained problematic, companies Q2-2015 earnings reports were not too good, and manufacturing contracted.

Read more ›

Once again, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 13,500 per US dollar level on Wednesday (05/08), touching its weakest level since the Asian Financial Crisis (which began as a financial crisis but would soon develop into a deep economic, political and social crisis in Indonesia) in 1997-1998. For some Indonesian policy makers, business players and investors the current weak rupiah therefore brings back bad memories. However, there are significant changes between conditions now and those in 1997-1998.

Read more ›

There are still persistent external and internal factors that make it difficult for Indonesian stocks to rise. By 12:07 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down 0.25 percent to 4,788.37 points. Meanwhile, the rupiah had appreciated 0.36 percent to IDR 13,462 per US dollar by the same time according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. What are the external (foreign) and internal (domestic) factors that influence the performance of Indonesian assets on today’s trading day (04/08)?

Read more ›

The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.

Read more ›

Although consumer confidence among Indonesian consumers remained relatively high, there has been a decline detected in 2015. Consumer optimism has fallen as Indonesia’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in six years due to worldwide low commodity prices (giving rise to Indonesia’s weak export performance), China's economic slowdown, uneven recoveries in the US and Europe, while spending of the Indonesian government remained weak (amid bureaucratic hurdles and difficult land acquisition for projects).

Read more ›

Again, Indonesia’s rupiah is touching the IDR 13,400 per US dollar psychological boundary. According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,405 per US dollar at 11:22 am local Jakarta time on Thursday (23/07), a level last seen when the country was still plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998. Crossing the psychological boundary could mean Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will intervene again to support the currency in order to safeguard people’s confidence in the currency.

Read more ›

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced that it cut its 2015 and 2016 economic growth forecasts for both China and other developing Asian countries due to the persistent economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic expansion is projected to reach 7 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 6.8 percent (y/y) in 2016. Both these outlooks were down 0.2 percentage point from the ADB’s previous projection. Due to the size of China’s economy, economic slowing will drag down growth in the whole Asian region.

Read more ›

As expected Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its interest rate regime at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (14/07). The key BI rate was kept at 7.50 percent, while the overnight deposit rate (Fasbi) and lending facility rate were left at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia believes that the current interest rate environment is in line with its efforts to bring down inflation while supporting Indonesia’s ailing rupiah ahead of expected further monetary tightening in the USA later this year.

Read more ›

In line with expectation and the historic trend, Indonesia’s car sales rose - on a monthly basis - in June 2015 ahead of the Idul Fitri celebrations (that mark the end of the Islamic holy fasting month). Car sales in Indonesia usually increase ahead of Idul Fitri (also known as Lebaran), a tradition which involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Before the journey to the villages a portion of these travelers are eager to buy a new car, a decision often influenced by promotional campaigns and discount programs.

Read more ›

Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

Read more ›

Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

Read more ›

As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

Read more ›

The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

Read more ›

Analysts expect that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) will end mixed today (20/08) after yesterday's large plunge amid heavy market concerns. Yesterday, the index dropped 5.58 percent to 4,313.52 points, the lowest since October 2011. Indonesia posted a current account deficit in the second quarter of 2013, while Thailand entered into a recession. The MSCI Emerging Market index¹, which includes both countries, fell 1.4 percent to a six-week low. Below a short overview of factors that caused negative sentiments on Indonesia's market.

Read more ›

For several weeks now, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been experiencing a sharp correction. As I wrote in my previous columns, market participants have been waiting for several important macro economic data, to wit Indonesia's economic growth figure for the second quarter of 2013, the July 2013 inflation rate, and the country's trade balance statistics for the first six months of this year. Now all above results have been released, we can analyze further the impact of these macroeconomic results as well as investors' reaction to it.

Read more ›

The government of Indonesia has the ambition to reduce Indonesia's unemployment rate to about 5.7 percent in 2014. This ambition was pronounced by Armida Alisjahbana, the minister of National Development Planning. According to the latest data released by Statistics Indonesia, the country's unemployment rate currently stands at 5.92 percent. The minister stressed that the unemployment target of 6 percent that was set in Indonesia's National Medium Term Development Plan to be reached in 2014, has already been achieved.

Read more ›

The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

Read more ›

Cement sales in Indonesia grew by seven percent to 32.9 million tons in the period January to July 2013. This pace of growth is significantly lower compared to the double-digit cement growth rate last year and thus forms another sign of cooling economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy (cement sales are a good indicator to measure the state of economic growth of a country). A slowdown in domestic cement sales is likely to continue in the second half of 2013, partly due to a decline in infrastructure projects.

Read more ›

Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

Read more ›