Per 14 November 2013, 24 Indonesian provinces have confirmed their new provincial minimum wage for the year 2014. As Indonesia numbers 34 provinces in total, 10 more provinces are expected to announce their new minimum wages soon. It is interesting to note that of the 24 provinces that have already published the new minimum wage, 11 provinces have set the minimum wage below the assumed need for decent living in the province, which implies that the minimum wage is not enough to finance a person's minimum monthly basic needs.

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Concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing or QE3) in combination with the deteriorating domestic economy of Indonesia has caused Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to plunge 1.95 percent in the first trading session of 13 November 2013. The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 11,600 according to Bloomberg. These developments happen one day after the decision of Indonesia's central bank to raise the BI rate to 7.50 percent.

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The government of Indonesia aims to reduce the country's poverty rate to between 6.5 and 8.0 percent by 2019. The government, through its Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas), is currently busy finalizing the targets of the National Medium-Term Development Plan 2015-2019 (RPJMN 2015-2019). This RPJMN is the third phase of implementation of the National Long-Term Development Plan 2005-2025 (RPJPN 2005-2025) which forms the basis for ministries and government agencies when formulating their policies.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), stated that the country's economy is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2013. Bank Indonesia believes GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 to fall below the growth figure realized in Q3-2013 (5.62 percent). Martowardojo said that the government needs to continue measures to improve the country's exports, while trying to curtail imports of oil and gas as domestic demand for fuels remained high, even after the increase in prices of subsidized fuels in June 2013.

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Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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Indonesia continues to top the ranking of countries with the highest consumer confidence in the third quarter of 2013 although its score fell four points from the second quarter to 120. According to the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, consumers in Indonesia are optimistic due to the general elections in mid-2014 and growth of the country's middle class. However, as inflation surged after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in June, the score fell slightly.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) sees a continued easing trend in inflationary pressures in October 2013. Indonesia's inflation in October 2013 was recorded at 0.09 percent (month-to-month), thus confirming the indication that monthly inflation is back to its normal pattern in the last five years. However, the annual inflation pace is still high at 8.32 percent (yoy). Limited inflation in October was influenced by deflation of the food group component (0.80 percent mtm), although commodity prices rose (especially red chili).

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After two days of demonstrations by tens of thousands of Indonesian workers, the Governor of Jakarta (Joko Widodo) raised the capital's minimum wage to IDR 2.4 million (USD $213) per month. The new minimum wage, proposed by the Jakarta Wage Council, will be implemented in 2014 and constitutes a 10% increase from the current minimum wage of IDR 2.2 million. The workers, however, had demanded for a minimum wage of IDR 3.7 million causing various institutions and analysts to express concerns about the impact on the investment climate.

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Inflation in October 2013 was recorded at 0.09%. This low inflation rate was mainly supported by easing food and clothes prices. The foodstuffs component in the basket recorded deflation of 0.34 percent, while clothes posted deflation of 0.56 percent. These details were presented by Suryamin, Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on Friday (01/11). The 0.09 percent October inflation rate is low compared to past results in the same month with the notable exception of October 2011 when 0.12 percent of deflation was recorded.

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On Monday (28/10), another large-scale demonstration took place in the center of Jakarta, Indonesia's capital city. The workers that participated in the strike demanded a new minimum wage for Jakarta's provincial government due to the country's recent high inflation rate after prices of subsidized fuels were raised in June 2013, thus curbing people's purchasing power. The workers demand for the new minimum wage of IDR 3.7 million (USD $327) per month. However, these developments can hurt the investment climate in Indonesia.

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Less than 24 hours after having raised the overnight deposit facility rate (known as Fasbi) by 25 bps to 4.25 percent, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) also raised its benchmark interest rate (known as the BI rate) by 25 bps to 6.0 percent. Both these policy responses were conducted in order to support the IDR rupiah, which is one of the worst performing Asian currencies against the US dollar in 2013. Indonesia's central bank expects growing inflationary pressures as the Indonesian government intends to cut fuel subsidies this June.

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Despite continued foreign selling of Indonesian stocks on today's trading day (12/06), we see that there is an end in sight to the sell of. During the last three days, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) had fallen considerably. The fall was led by the big cap companies that generally are target of most foreign investment. As stock prices of these companies had experienced a free fall in previous days, it made them attractive for limited buying. However, negative sentiments that have coloured the stock market recently, have not waned yet.

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On the very last trading day of May (31/05), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) closed at 5,068.63 points. During the month, the index showed a volatile performance as it reached its peak at 5,251.29 and its low at 4,907.59 points. Overall, the IHSG continued to rise in May despite various negative sentiments. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of IDR 7.9 trillion (USD $806.12 million). However, optimistic domestic investors kept Indonesia's index in the green zone.

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In the first five months of 2013, Indonesia’s main stock index (IHSG) rose 16.62 percent to a near record high level at 5,068.63 points on Friday (31/05/13). Initially, both analysts and investors were concerned that Indonesia would experience its traditional ‘May Cycle’, the term which refers to the usual fall of Indonesia’s index in the month of May. However, reality proved different as the index recorded a small gain of 7.71 points (0.15 percent) last month.

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Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.

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Throughout the month of May, the level of volatility of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been remarkable and interesting. At the start of the month we were shocked by Standard & Poor's downgrade of Indonesia's credit rating outlook as well as Moody's warning to take similar measures as Indonesia had been slow to deal with its subsidized fuel policy. These issues were able to drag the index down. Moreover, the threat of higher inflation triggers concerns that the index would show its traditional fall in the month of May.

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Although Indonesia’s government stresses the need to relieve pressure on the state budget (by raising the price of subsidized fuel next month), it plans to allocate an additional IDR 16.1 trillion (USD $1.65 billion) to this year’s fuel subsidy budget. The additional allocation, which covers fuel, LPG and vegetable fuels, will raise government expenditure on fuel subsidies to IDR 209.9 trillion (USD $21.50 billion) from the IDR 193.8 trillion drafted in the original 2013 state budget (APBN 2013). Total energy subsidies will grow to IDR 309.9 trillion this year.

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Last week, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved remarkably well. The index managed to set a new record high at 5145.68 points on Friday (17/05/13) as it was pushed up by its strongest pillar of support, the consumer sector. Indonesia's consumer sector rose as much as 8.23 percent last week, while the largest obstacle to growth was the country's mining sector, which experienced a correction of 3.31 percent. What are the underlying reasons of last week's gain towards yet another record high? And is it sustainable?

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Positive American and European stock indices on Tuesday (14/05/13) made a good impact on Asian stock indices on Wednesday (15/05/13), including Indonesia's main index (IHSG) which is heading towards the 5,100 points line. Although many foreign investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets, support from other Asian stock indices kept the IHSG within the green zone. At the end of the trading day, it stood at 5,089.88 points, a 0.16 percent rise.

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One of the sectors that showed exceptional growth in 2012 was Indonesia's property market. On average, net profit of companies engaged in Indonesia's property sector grew 68 percent during the full year. Of the 45 property companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 26 posted net profit growth that exceeded 50 percent. But the success story did not end there. In the first quarter of 2013, the property sectoral index of the IDX continued its fast pace by rising over 41 percent.

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