After Islamic New Year celebrations, Indonesia’s financial markets reopened on Thursday (15/10). The sharp appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah on Thursday morning is remarkable. By 10:10 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had appreciated 2.36 percent to IDR 13,295 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) hence extending last week’s gains when Indonesia’s currency strengthened around 9 percent against the greenback. Emerging markets assets are still gaining on signs that the Federal Reserve will not raise US interest rates in the short-term.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Wednesday (07/10) that the country's foreign exchange reserves had fallen to USD $101.7 billion at the end of September 2015 (from USD $105.3 billion in the preceding month). The reserve assets declined due to the servicing of government foreign debt and rupiah exchange rate stabilization efforts. Until Friday (02/10), the rupiah was plagued by severe pressure caused by looming higher US interest rates.

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Investors' confidence in Indonesia's rupiah restored over the past three days after markets began to believe that the US Federal Reserve has little scope to raise its key Fed Fund Rate this year (due to weak US non-farm payrolls and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI). Bank Indonesia's role should also be highlighted. Indonesia's central bank intervened heavily (through currency swaps and by using its foreign exchange reserves) to stabilize and keep the currency from weakening toward and beyond the IDR 15,000 per US dollar level. This tells investors that Bank Indonesia will not allow a worse decline.

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In Indonesian media more and more (unofficial) information circulates about the third installment of the government's economic policy package. This third installment, which is expected to be unveiled next week by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, involves lowering prices of gas, diesel and electricity (for industries) to avert more layoffs in Indonesia's manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the government may lower lending rates (by cutting unnecessary costs) in order to boost credit expansion in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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After the government of Indonesia unveiled the second installment of its economic policy package on Tuesday (29/09), the central bank (Bank Indonesia) followed suit by releasing a rupiah exchange rate stabilization package on Wednesday (30/09). Bank Indonesia’s package has three main pillars: (1) safeguarding rupiah rate stability, (2) strengthening rupiah liquidity management, and (3) strengthening foreign exchange supply and demand management.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is set to announce the second installment of a policy package that aims at raising onshore US dollar supplies (and liquidity). As the rupiah has been the second worst-performing Asian emerging market currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit), having depreciated 18.1 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015, Indonesian policymakers are anxious to prop up the ailing currency in order to safeguard the country’s financial stability. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) stood at IDR 14,690 per US dollar on Friday (25/09), a 17-year low.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that inflation will ease below seven percent year-on-year (y/y) in September 2015 on the back of lower prices of raw foods and lower administered prices (including fuel and electricity) in the post the Ramadan and Idul Fitri period. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank expects inflation at around 6.95 percent (y/y) in September.

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In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for a seven consecutive month in September’s Board of Governor’s meeting (17/09) as it aims to stabilize the rupiah amid global volatility caused by looming higher US interest rates and China’s hard landing (as well as yuan depreciation), while combating inflation which stood at 7.18 percent (y/y) in August. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were left unchanged at 5.5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

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With all eyes on the two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, we could almost forget that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will also hold its monthly policy meeting today. Similar to the topic discussed in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (16-17 September), Bank Indonesia may consider raising its key interest rate (BI rate) as a Fed Fund Rate hike would trigger capital outflows, while Indonesia’s inflation rate remains high and the rupiah is fragile.

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For the second time, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its 2016 forecast for economic growth in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Due to persistent low commodity prices and weak export figures, the central bank now estimates that Indonesia’s economy will grow in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y) next year, down from its earlier outlook of 5.3 - 5.7 percent and the initial outlook of 5.4 - 5.8 percent.

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Apparently, market participants were eagerly waiting for positive news regarding stimulus packages that various central banks will apply to boost local economies. Once the news spread, investors hunted for stocks that previously weakened. Moreover, increased manufacturing data from the USA and Europe contributed to positive market sentiments. Lastly, China indicated to maintain its economic pace of 7.5 percent GDP growth this year.

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On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was not able to maintain its record breaking upward movement. China's possible decision to limit credit growth in the property sector and the election in Italy contributed significantly to the decline of the IHSG. Moreover, it was influenced by poor openings of European stock markets. Investors thus decided to engage in profit taking, while waiting for further global developments.

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President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has nominated Agus D.W. Martowardojo, currently serving as Finance minister, to replace Darmin Nasution as governor of Bank Indonesia, Indonesia's central bank. Nasution, who has been governor since September 2010, will see his term end in May this year. To become the next governor, Martowardojo still needs approval of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), and that might be a bottleneck.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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A continued positive movement of the Nikkei index provided good support for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) on Tuesday's trading day. Many Asian stock markets have not opened yet after the Chinese new year and therefore the Nikkei became the reference for the performance of the IHSG. Apart from the influence of the Nikkei, many Indonesian company reports that were published today, had a positive effect on the IHSG, resulting in a new record high.

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It seems that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was blessed by the Chinese new year celebrations as it closed higher on Monday than on the previous trading day. This is a better performance than usual on the days around the new year. If we take a look at the period 2008-2012, the IHSG declined three times on the day before new year, and twice on the day after. This year, the IHSG declined on the day before by -0.26% and increased by 0.27 on the day after.

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Indonesian commercial banks have shown good performance in recent years as economic growth of over six percent fuels loan demand from the people and businesses. Domestic consumption and investment are the two main drivers of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Together, these two components account for almost 90 percent of GDP. As such, lenders are in a comfortable position.

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