On 13 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, income inequality, the budget deficit, IPOs on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, but also political topics such as regional elections.

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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Asian stock indices - including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index which reopened after a market holiday - were mostly in red territory on Thursday (10/12) as investors are cautious ahead of the looming US interest rate hike, expected to be decided upon at the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting (15-16 December), as well as low oil prices and falling US stocks overnight. Moreover, the central bank of China allowed its yuan to depreciate further (to a near four-month low), hence resulting in the resurgence of some fears of a currency war in Asia.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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Today, Indonesian integrated fishery, marine product processing and cold storage company Dua Putra Utama Makmur will be listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), hence becoming the 13th company to have conducted an initial public offering (IPO) on the IDX this year. Previously it was reported that the IPO of Dua Putra Utama Makmur was oversubscribed 1.5 times, reflecting robust demand. Overall, however, the number of IPOs on the IDX has been disappointing in 2015. Next year is expected to be a better year.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia fell slightly in November. According to the latest data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) the reserves stood at USD $100.24 billion at end-November, down from USD $100.7 billion at the end of the preceding month. The reserves fell on foreign exchange receipts, public foreign debt payments and the central bank's efforts to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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Ceramic sales in Indonesia are projected to decline to IDR 25 trillion (approx. USD $1.8 billion) in 2015 from total sales worth IDR 36 trillion last year. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said 2015 is a year full of challenges for the domestic ceramic industry due to Indonesia's slowing economic growth (particularly the slowdown of the nation's property sector), high gas prices, higher minimum wages, and the fragile rupiah (having depreciated around 11 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015).

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China's yuan (also known as renminbi) was included in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) - with a weightage average of 10.91 percent - on Tuesday (01/12), a decision that will take effect on 1 October 2016. Other currencies in the SDR are the US dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen. This move implies that the currency of the world's second-largest economy is increasingly regarded as a global financial instrument and will be increasingly used in transactions across the globe and widely traded on foreign exchange markets.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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RSM Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading audit, tax and financial advisory firms, expects to see more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Indonesia in 2016 due to the improving global and domestic economic conditions, a stable rupiah exchange rate, and Indonesian's growing purchasing power. For foreign investors a M&A deal is one of the strategies to enter Indonesia. Up to early November, the total value of M&A deals in Indonesia in 2015 stood at USD $3.53 billion.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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As companies' financial results of 2013 slowly start to be released, two reports - so far - have raised eyebrows due to significant declines in net profit. These are publicly listed, but majority state-owned, airline Garuda Indonesia and fully state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Both companies felt the impact of the sharply depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. The currency fell over 21 percent against the US dollar in 2013 due to capital outflows amid looming US tapering and current account deficit concerns.

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Domestic sales of motorcycles in Indonesia fell 11 percent to 580,288 units in January 2014. The main reason for this decline in the first month of the year were severe floods brought about by high rainfall amid a peak of the rainy season. These weather conditions disrupted the distribution of motorcycles from factories to dealers. As a result, all motorcycle brands recorded lower sales figures according to data released by the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (Aisi). However, more factors were at play.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the January 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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Despite the release of positive macroeconomic data on Monday (03/02), Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January and put pressure on stocks and currencies in emerging markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's further reduction of its quantitative easing program (to USD $65 billion per month) continues to strengthen the US dollar at the expense of emerging currencies.

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On Wednesday 5 February 2014, Statistics Indonesia (BPS, a non-departmental government institute) is expected to release Indonesia's official GDP growth figure for the year 2013. It is estimated that the outcome will be the lowest GDP growth figure since 2009 when Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.6 percent after feeling the impact of the global financial crisis. In 2013, again, Indonesia felt the negative influence of external troubles. And in combination with domestic factors, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to be around 5.7 percent in 2013.

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In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar on Monday (27/01). The decline of the rupiah was in line with today's trend of weakening Asia Pacific currencies (against the US dollar). Meanwhile, the central bank's mid rate (the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or JISDOR) depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 12,198 per US dollar. Market participants are concerned about Indonesia's January 2014 inflation and further Federal Reserve tapering.

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