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For the first time in several years, Indonesia Investments decided that it had to adjust its outlook for Indonesia’s economic growth. Since 2016, Indonesia’s modestly accelerating economic growth rate had been fully in line with our estimates.
On Tuesday (11/06) Indonesia Investments released the May 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of May 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
A survey of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) shows that retail sales have grown strongly in December 2018. The growth pace was recorded at 7.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the last month of 2018, strengthening from an annual growth rate of 3.4 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
On Friday (7/12) Indonesia Investments released the November 2018 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of November 2018 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
At the start of the 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank Group Annual Meetings on Bali (8-14 October 2018), the IMF released the October 2018 edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. The Washington-based institution became less optimistic about the global environment and therefore cut its forecast for global economic growth as well as its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth.
Danareksa, a fully state-owned financial institution in Indonesia, expects Indonesia's economic growth to slow in 2019 to the range of 5.1 - 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) from an estimated growth range of 5.2 - 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2018.
In the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly (June 2018 edition) there are plenty of positive words about the Indonesian economy, such as robust economic growth, low inflation, rising investment, growing government spending, and prudent monetary policy. However, the World Bank also detects some "substantial and mostly external" risks that lurk about. Below is the summary of the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Learning More, Growing Faster".
In a speech in front of the House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the government targets an economic growth rate in the range of 5.4 - 5.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) for 2019. She said this range is a realistic one. Moreover, growth should be inclusive and equal, meaning all people across the nation should see an increase in their welfare. The government will give special focus on the acceleration of growth in eastern Indonesia, border areas, the outermost areas and underdeveloped regions.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia expanded 5.06 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. This figure is in line with our expectations. Over the past two years it had already become clear that the acceleration of economic growth in Indonesia goes at a very slow pace, a trend that can primarily be attributed to subdued household consumption.
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Similar to the Jakarta Great Sale event, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) trades its stocks at low prices as foreign investors have sold large parts of their Indonesian stock assets in recent weeks. Last week, foreign investors sold IDR 4.9 trillion (about USD $492.4 million), meaning that this year's accumulated foreign net buying has evaporated. Will these sales continue? Yes, I think so. Foreigners have invested about IDR 144 trillion in Indonesia's capital markets between 2007 and Q1-2013. As such, there is still plenty to sell.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) moved wildly last week. During the first two days of the week, the index fell to 4,609.95 points, which is considerably below its record high level of 5,214 on 20 May 2013. However, on the last trading day of the week (14/06), a 3.32 percent recovery occurred. Generally, it were domestic market participants that supported the IHSG. Foreign market participants continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. Total foreign selling totaled IDR 9 trillion (USD $910.4 million) last week.
Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.
The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.
Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.
In the revised state budget, Indonesia's government has lowered its forecast for tax revenue in 2013. Originally, the government expected to receive IDR 1,193.0 trillion (USD $122.4 billion) but the figure has been tuned down to IDR 1,139.3 trillion (USD $116.9 billion). Minister of Finance Chatib Basri stated that the forecast for tax revenue has been revised down by IDR 55.1 trillion, while the figure for export duties has been raised by IDR 1.4 trillion. Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013 has been changed to 12.11 percent from 12.87 percent.
Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.
Positive American and European stock indices on Tuesday (14/05/13) made a good impact on Asian stock indices on Wednesday (15/05/13), including Indonesia's main index (IHSG) which is heading towards the 5,100 points line. Although many foreign investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets, support from other Asian stock indices kept the IHSG within the green zone. At the end of the trading day, it stood at 5,089.88 points, a 0.16 percent rise.
Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.
The economy of Indonesia is booming with gross domestic product (GDP) surpassing six percent on an annual basis. And the country's strong economic fundamentals are confirmed by increasing international attention. But within the context of this economic growth it is important to take a look at whether economic growth is shared by all segments of Indonesian society. If, for example, only the higher classes of Indonesia would benefit from the economic boom, it could give rise to social issues in the future.
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