On Monday (20/10), Indonesia raised IDR 21.2 trillion (about USD $1.8 billion) from the sale of rupiah-denominated retail bonds (Obligasi Negara Ritel Indonesia, abbreviated ORI). This is not only the country’s largest ORI-bond sale ever, but also the largest bond sale in 2014 so far. ORI, which is usually issued once per year, is a bond that is issued specifically to Indonesian retail investors/individuals. The ORI series ORI011 was offered in the period 1-16 October 2014 with a coupon rate of 8.5 percent and a tenor of three years.

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Indonesian stocks, bonds and the rupiah exchange rate performed well ahead of - and during - the inauguration of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday morning (20 October 2014). At 10:45 am local Jakarta time, when Jokowi was making his speech in front of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the Jakarta Composite Index had surged 1.36 percent to 5,097.25 points, while the rupiah had appreciated 0.78 percent to IDR 12,015 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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On 19 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, foreign direct investments, an update on the coal mining sector, tax, the cement industry, palm oil, steel industry, and more.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate strengthened considerably on Friday (17/10) due to speculation that president-elect Joko Widodo will raise prices of subsidized fuels soon after his inauguration as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday 20 October 2014. Furthermore, a meeting between Widodo and powerful opposition leader Prabowo Subianto on Friday morning also managed to ease concerns about political stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Lastly, rising indices on Wall Street added positive market sentiments.

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On 12 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such an outlook for GDP growth, the benchmark interest rate, the equity market, car sales, the coffee industry, the Giant Sea Wall Jakarta, and more.

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Executive director of equity research at JP Morgan Securities Indonesia Aditya Srinath painted a positive picture about the equity market in Indonesia despite the lingering risks emerging from domestic political instability and looming capital outflows due to higher US interest rates in the second quarter of 2015. Srinath stated that Indonesia’s economic resilience so far as well as falling domestic interest rates among Indonesian financial institutions are positive signs for the equity market.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks weakened sharply on Wednesday (08/10) due to internal and external factors. Externally, weakening stock indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (07/10) have a severe negative impact on the performance of Asian stocks today. Wall Street was down on the IMF’s downward revised outlook for global GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, as well as on Germany’s industrial production, which fell the most in five years in August 2014.

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Although domestic car sales in Indonesia have again exceeded the psychological level of 100,000 vehicles per month, sales have fallen 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 101,801 units in September 2014. In September last year, car sales were heavily supported by the newly-introduced low cost green car (LCGC). Domestic car sales constitute an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and domestic consumption. Domestic consumption accounts for 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia.

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On 5 October 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such September inflation, August trade balance, the IPO of Blue Bird, a rupiah and stock update, a new plantations bill, political developments, and more.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated sharply on Monday (29/09) due to the market’s reaction against parliament’s passing of a bill that ends direct elections in the regions. On Friday (26/09), parliament agreed that mayors, district heads and governors will be elected by local legislatures instead of the people. Critics say this bill is a major setback for democracy and makes the system more vulnerable to corruption. Last Friday, investors had already pulled USD $119 million from Indonesian shares.

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Today, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the Board of Governors’ meeting. The lending facility rate and deposit facility rate were maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. An assessment of the economy in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015 indicated that such policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to keep inflation within the target of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to help reduce the current account deficit to a sustainable level.

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Indonesian retail sales surged 14 percent in November 2013 from one year earlier (the highest growth rate since July 2013). On a month-to-month basis, Indonesia's retail sales increased 1.5 percent from October 2013. These findings were the result of a survey conducted by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), which surveyed 650 retailers in 10 Indonesian cities. The bank's survey also indicated that Indonesian retailers may increase prices of their products in 2014 in order to compensate for the depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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As expected, the Jakarta Composite Index (abbreviated IHSG) continued its downward trend amid falling global indices. From the start of Tuesday's trading day (07/01), the IHSG had to face pressures resulting in foreign net selling. Apart from the weakening rupiah exchange rate, negative market sentiments were caused by the Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase & Co that both downgraded emerging market economies. This led to a correction on Asian stock markets.

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Domestic sales of motorcycles in Indonesia are expected to have fallen by 20 percent to 550,000 in December 2013 compared to the previous month (688,527). According to the Chairman of the commercial department of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI), Sigit Kumala, this decline is not the result of slowing demand for motorcycles but due to the limited amount of working days amid the Christmas and New Year holidays. This then led to less production and distribution of motorcycles to Indonesian dealers.

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From the start of today's trading day (06/01), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency fell 0.48 percent to IDR 12,238 per US dollar at 13:00 local Jakarta time. This declining trend is in line with the majority of other Asian Pacific currencies. With the exception of the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, the US dollar appreciated against all Asia Pacific currencies in the morning of Monday (06/01).

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Again positive news for Indonesia's trade balance. Last week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the largest economy of Southeast Asia posted a USD $776.8 million trade surplus in November 2013 (the largest monthly trade surplus since March 2012). After the (revised) USD $24 million trade surplus in October 2013, November was the second straight month in which the country posted a surplus. This development is important to gain investors' confidence as Indonesia's current account deficit has been a major cause for concern.

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On Friday (03/01), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended 1.61 percent down to 4,257.66 points amid a majority of global indices declining after having experienced a short (window dressing-inspired) rally at the end of the year. The IHSG, which was not affected by the window dressing phenomenon, was dragged down after experiencing a four-day rally in the last week of 2013. Positive US employment data were unable to support global indices.

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Garuda Indonesia, the country's top-class airline, is planning to conduct a rights issue in the first quarter of 2014. Through this corporate action, which has already been approved by the shareholders, the state-controlled company aims to raise IDR 2 trillion (USD $162.6 million). For 2014, the airline plans to allocate IDR 4 trillion in capital expenditure (capex) for business expansion. About half of this amount should originate from funds generated through the rights issue.

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As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.

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On Wednesday (18/12), the Federal Reserve announced to slightly scale back its quantitative easing program starting from January 2014. The reduction of the bond-buying program involves USD $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities and USD $5 billion of US treasury securities. Thus, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of USD $75 billion worth of bonds per month instead of the current pace of USD $85 billion. For the moment, this policy change has an euphoric effect on global stock markets.

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