Stakeholders in Indonesia's property sector may regret to learn that Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) decided to postpone deliberations on the tax amnesty bill until (at least) April 2016. This tax amnesty bill, originally planned to be implemented in early 2016, offers attractive tax rates to those tax evaders who declare untaxed wealth and repatriate their funds to Indonesia. If implemented in early 2016, then the bill was estimated to generate up to USD $4.4 billion in additional tax revenue in 2016. Meanwhile, part of repatriated funds would find their way into the nation's property sector.

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Astra International reported a 25 percent year-on-year (y/y) decline in net profit to IDR 14.4 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion) over 2015. This is the company's lowest net profit figure in the past five years. Main reasons for this weak performance is falling domestic consumption in Indonesia and persistently sliding commodity prices. Astra International, an investment holding company, is among the largest diversified conglomerates in Indonesia and regarded the barometer of the Indonesian economy due to the group's presence in various sectors.

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Indonesia's manufacturing industry was worth IDR 2,097.7 trillion (approx. USD $156 billion) in 2015, contributing 18.1 percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.8 percent of GDP in the preceding year. However, this higher contribution of manufacturing to the economy is mainly caused by the declining roles of oil & gas, commodities, agriculture and mining within the Indonesian economy. These sectors have all seen their roles decline amid persistently low commodity prices.

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Today, Bank Indonesia will start its February two-day policy meeting. Markets are eagerly awaiting whether the central bank of Indonesia will indeed cut its key interest rate (BI rate) again. Last month, it had cut the BI rate by 0.25 percent to 7.25 percent as inflation, the current account deficit and the rupiah rate were all under control. Although the rate cut was welcomed by the business community it was considered not enough to push borrowing costs lower in Southeast Asia's largest economy hence unable to boost economic activity significantly.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are having a great day on Friday (05/02). During the first trading session Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged 2.33 percent to 4,774.68 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 13,577 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:35 pm local Jakarta time. These positive developments are caused by the country's better-than-expected Q4-2015 GDP growth result. This morning it was announced that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.04 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2015.

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On Friday morning (05/02) Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's economy expanded 5.04 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2015, slightly higher than most analysts had been expecting. Full-year 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.79 percent (y/y). Although this figure is in line with expectations (which ranged between 4.70 and 4.80 percent), the growth pace still constitutes a six-year low for Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, BPS also announced it had revised Q3-2015 GDP up from 4.73 (y/y) to 4.74 (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) reported that Indonesian consumers are becoming increasingly optimistic about economic prospects and their personal financial situation this year, evidenced by a 5.1 point rise in Bank Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index to 112.6 points in January 2016. This index is based on a survey, involving 4,600 households in 18 cities across the archipelago (a reading above 100 indicates optimism, while a reading below 100 indicates pessimism).

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As expected, credit growth in Indonesia slowed in 2015 amid the nation's overall economic slowdown. Loan growth was particularly affected by weaker demand for property and working capital loans. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015 is estimated to have slowed to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the country's slowest growth pace since 2009. In its January policy meeting Bank Indonesia decided to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent, a move that should encourage loan growth this year in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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New York-based Moody's Investors Service kept Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at Baa3 (stable outlook), the lowest level within the investment grade rating. Although the rating agency is positive about the strong nature of Indonesia's economy and the prudent fiscal policy that is safeguarded by the Indonesian government and central bank, it sees few room for an upgrade soon (to Baa2) as government revenue is not expected to rise significantly in the period ahead. Moody's released this statement on Thursday (28/01).

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Although oil prices somewhat recovered from 12-year lows on Friday (08/01) on China's rebounding stock market there is concern that Indonesia will not achieve its 2016 oil lifting target as the country's oil producers become less eager to boost production rates amid unattractive oil prices. Yesterday, Brent oil fell to USD $32.16 per barrel - the lowest level since 2004 - after China devalued its yuan and Chinese stocks plunged over 7 percent causing the circuit-breaking mechanism to kick in and even causing a global stock selloff.

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Despite the fact that Indonesia reported the world's third-highest GDP growth in 2012 (behind China's 7.4 percent and Saudi Arabia's 7.1 percent), supported by rising consumption by a burgeoning middle class and significant increased foreign direct investment, the country's performance in terms of competitiveness is disappointing. It is cheaper to import products from countries that contain competitive businesses than to produce them in Indonesia.

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Apparently, market participants were eagerly waiting for positive news regarding stimulus packages that various central banks will apply to boost local economies. Once the news spread, investors hunted for stocks that previously weakened. Moreover, increased manufacturing data from the USA and Europe contributed to positive market sentiments. Lastly, China indicated to maintain its economic pace of 7.5 percent GDP growth this year.

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Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.

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On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) ended lower as widespread profit taking coloured transactions. Other Asian stock indices, such as the Nikkei (Japan) and Hang Seng (Hong Kong), fell hard and impacted on the performance of the IHSG. The publication of Indonesia's 2012 GDP growth also brought negative sentiments as its result (6.2%) was below expectations.

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An official at Indonesia's Finance Ministry announced today that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.23% in 2012, thus failing to meet the government's revised target of 6.3-6.5%. Factors that contributed to Indonesia's lower than expected economic growth last year were weak exports due to poor international trade and non-optimal government spending. On the positive side, all sectors of the Indonesian economy experienced growth.

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Indonesian commercial banks have shown good performance in recent years as economic growth of over six percent fuels loan demand from the people and businesses. Domestic consumption and investment are the two main drivers of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Together, these two components account for almost 90 percent of GDP. As such, lenders are in a comfortable position.

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Both Indonesia's cement production and cement consumption have risen rapidly in recent years. As the country has been showing solid economic growth for a decade - and is forecast to continue this growth -, property and infrastructure projects have grown in number accordingly, thus increasing demand for building materials such as cement. Moreover, the government is committed to enhance the country's much-needed infrastructure development.

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