Most Asian stocks declined on Wednesday (28/10) as markets are waiting for results of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting (later today the Fed will release a statement). Although analysts and investors seem confident that the US central bank will delay raising its key Fed Fund Rate (and will not provide a clear signal about the timing of higher rates), markets remain cautious. Moreover, oil prices fell to two-month lows overnight.

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In a new report US-based rating agency Moody's Investors Service says that Indonesian banks are strong enough to cope with ongoing currency volatility and sluggish economic growth. Although sharp rupiah depreciation does imply risks, "Indonesian banks seem manageable", Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Srikanth Vadlamani said, "as over 70 percent of local banks' debt constitutes related-party debt, implying minimal risks to the domestic banking system".

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Most Asian stock indices were in red territory on Tuesday (27/10) ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting (scheduled to start today) and following the sluggish performance of US and European stocks on Monday. Investors seem to engage in profit-taking after global equity markets hit a two-month high on China's interest rates cut, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s plan to add stimulus to boost inflation, and expectation of more stimulus from Japan's central bank as well as a delay in higher US interest rates.

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Most Asian stock indices strengthened on Monday (26/10) as China cut the one-year lending rate by 0.25 percent to 4.35 percent (the sixth interest rate cut within a 12-month period) and cut banks' reserve requirement ratio by 0.50 percent to 17.5 percent. On the one hand this move should boost economic expansion in the world's second-largest economy. On the other hand, however, the move is one the the many signals that the economy of China is weakening further and heading for a 25-year low growth pace in 2015.

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The economic slowdown and looming capital outflows related to higher US interest rates have been the main reasons why it is highly unlikely for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to achieve its revised target of seeing 22 companies conducting an initial public offering (IPO) on the IDX in 2015. So far this year, only 13 companies have listed on the IDX. However, reportedly, there are still about a dozen local companies interested to prepare an IPO in the next two months.

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On 25 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fifth stimulus package, Indonesia's tourism and automotive industries, Bank Indonesia's inflation forecast, a stock & rupiah update, the latest World Bank report, commodity updates, and more.

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In line with other Asian emerging assets, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah strengthened on Friday (23/10). The positive performance is mainly on the back of more stimulus measures by key central banks. Yesterday (22/10), Mario Draghi, Head of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the ECB may increase stimulus measures at the December policy meeting to raise inflation and boost the economy of the Eurozone.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) announced on Thursday (22/10) that foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia climbed 18.1 percent (year-on-year) to IDR 92.5 trillion (approx. USD $6.85 billion) in the third quarter of 2015 from the same quarter a year earlier. The Q3-2015 18.1 percentage point growth was almost the same as the 18.1 percent (y/y) increase in FDI posted in the previous quarter. FDI data from the BKPM does not include investment in the country's banking and oil & gas sectors.

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With the exception of Japan, the majority of stock markets in Asia were under pressure on Wednesday (21/10) on concern about China's economic growth as Japan's exports to China fell 3.5 percent year-on-year in September. Today, it was announced that Japan posted a USD $95 billion trade deficit in September, worse than previously estimated, primarily on weakening exports due to slowing economic growth in China. However, Japanese stocks rose on stimulus hopes.

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The Indonesian rupiah is not having a good day as it was down 1.05 percent to IDR 13,659 per US dollar by 10:45 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index) on Tuesday (20/10), weakening the most in a week. In line with most other emerging market currencies in Asia, the rupiah is falling presumably on concern about weak economic growth in China. Yesterday, Chinese authorities announced the world's second-largest economy expanded 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q3-2015. This result is slightly better than estimates but does also constitute a six-year low, hence negatively affected exports of its trading partners.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.

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Both the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index) and the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate are under pressure this morning as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank's Board of Governor's meeting that is held today (12/12) in Jakarta. Speculation has emerged that Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) one more time in 2013 in order to combat the country's current account deficit as well as mitigate the impact of a possible winding down of QE3.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) was kept at the level of 7.5 percent (in line with market expectation) today (12/12), it was not able to support the country's stock index. Indonesia's IHSG index fell 1.39 percent to 4,212.22 points. The index was negatively impacted by Asian stock indices that were down due to concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. This made investors' positive reaction to the BI rate of temporary nature. Weak openings in Europe increased downward pressure.

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One of the main problems of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) is the profit taking that immediately happens after a day of strong growth. On Wednesday (11/12), the IHSG index was plagued by profit taking since the start of the first trading session. Moreover, the index was impacted by mostly falling Asian stock indices as well as the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate which went above the IDR 12,000 per US dollar level again. The only support the IHSG received was just before its closing when European indices opened up.

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Throughout the morning, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate showed volatile movement on Tuesday (10/12). In the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency was up 0.45 percent to IDR 11,920 per US dollar at 16:20:51 local Jakarta time. The rupiah's performance is volatile because negative sentiments are brought on by improving economic data from the USA, causing a strengthening US dollar, while positive market sentiments are brought on by the new fiscal policies that were announced by the Indonesian government.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) continued yesterday's rise on today's trading day (10/12), supported by indices on Wall Street that climbed due to the lower VIX index (Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index) although Asia's stock indices were mixed, while the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its decline. Indonesia's manufacturing stocks were up along with consumer, automotive and processed foods stocks.

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After appreciating on Monday morning (09/12), the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate started to weaken against the US dollar in the afternoon. At 15:10:29 local Jakarta time, the rupiah stood at IDR 11,970 per US dollar in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a 0.05 percent depreciation from the start of the day. The rupiah exchange rate is fluctuating due to positive sentiments caused by Indonesia's October trade surplus as well as China's low inflation and negative sentiments brought on by the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the November 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Indonesia's Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the government of Indonesia is busy preparing three new policies that aim to restore financial stability as well as attract foreign direct investments. These three new policies involve the higher sales tax on imported luxury cars, a revision of Indonesia's negative investment list, and the higher income tax on imported consumption goods. These three new policies are in addition to the policy package that was introduced by the Indonesian government in August 2013.

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