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Latest Reports Prabowo Subianto
Today, Wednesday 17 April 2019, the Indonesian people vote for the country's presidential and legislative elections. While the legislative elections are not less important, most eyes are set on the presidential election; a battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo and challenger Prabowo Subianto.
It could be a coincidence but there is a peak in high-profile corruption cases ahead of the 2019 elections. In another article in the October 2018 research report we discuss the cases of the Lippo Group and Sinar Mas Group, two of the biggest conglomerates in Indonesia. It is widely known that big companies have their networks in political circles, such as the House of Representatives (DPR) and at the political top in provinces.
Indonesia Investments received information that presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto has selected Deputy Jakarta Governor Sandiaga Uno to become his vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election. The choice for Uno is allegedly accepted by Subianto's Gerindra party as well as by the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
While according to the opinion polls incumbent President Joko Widodo has a big lead over his (seemingly only) rival Prabowo Subianto for the 2019 presidential election, he declines to comment on the race. Instead Widodo - often called Jokowi - chooses to remain focused on work as "a lot has not been completed yet".
Business and politics are highly related to each other and therefore it is worthwhile to take a look at chief executive officers' (CEOs) confidence in Indonesia's national politics as well as their expectations for Indonesia's future political conditions. Local media company Kontan recently issued its latest Kontan CEO Confidence Index (KCCI).
Tensions within Indonesian parliament may have eased after the two opposing coalitions signed a limited power-sharing pact on Monday (17/11) after weeks of negotiations. This pact is expected to reinforce investor confidence in Indonesian politics amid improved political certainty. Previously, parliament was divided into two rival coalitions: the Awesome Indonesia Coalition (Koalisi Indonesia Hebat), which backs Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and the Red-White Coalition (Koalisi Merah-Putih), which is led by Prabowo Subianto.
Today (Monday 20 October 2014) Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, will be inaugurated as the seventh President of the Republic of Indonesia, effectively ending the decade-long leadership of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The inauguration will take place in Jakarta’s DPR/MPR building, the seat of government for the Indonesian legislative, while most of the celebrations will take place around Monas (National Monument) in Central Jakarta. Jokowi is likened by many due to his humble background and his reform-mindedness.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate strengthened considerably on Friday (17/10) due to speculation that president-elect Joko Widodo will raise prices of subsidized fuels soon after his inauguration as Indonesia’s seventh President on Monday 20 October 2014. Furthermore, a meeting between Widodo and powerful opposition leader Prabowo Subianto on Friday morning also managed to ease concerns about political stability in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Lastly, rising indices on Wall Street added positive market sentiments.
Political uncertainties in Indonesia brought on by the rivalry between president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and defeated candidate Prabowo Subianto may have eased somewhat as both men met on Friday morning (17/10) in Jakarta. After the meeting Subianto stated that he fully supports the Jokowi-led government, while Jokowi stated that he is open to receive criticism from opposition in the House of Representatives (DPR). Jokowi will be inaugurated on 20 October 2014 as Indonesia’s seventh president.
The government of Indonesia eyes to raise up to IDR 8 trillion (USD $667 million) in a bond auction set for Tuesday (14/10). The proceeds of this bond issuance will be used to finance the country’s state budget deficit in 2014. The Finance Ministry said that the Indonesian government will offer six series of bonds, with maturities ranging between 2015 and 2044. For analysts this issuance is an important test to measure investors’ confidence (particularly foreign investors) in Indonesia’s debt markets.
Latest Columns Prabowo Subianto
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have rebounded on Friday due to several internal and external factors. During the first trading session on Friday (17/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) surged 0.94 percent to 4,998.14 points. Meanwhile, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 12,228 per US dollar by 12:30 pm local Jakarta time. Why do Indonesian stocks and the rupiah perform well on Friday?
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) took another dive on Wednesday (08/10). The decline was not only caused by the negative influence of declining stock indices in the USA and Europe on the previous day, triggered by the downgraded global economic growth forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also because the market responded negatively to the voting result for the post of speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR).
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.
Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.
More and more concerns have arisen recently regarding the democratic future of Indonesia. In fact, some media have reported that an impeachment of president-elect Joko Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, could become a reality as opposition in parliament - led by controversial and vindictive former army general Prabowo Subianto - is large. The Merah-Putih coalition, referring to the coalition of political parties that supported Subianto in the presidential election (which he narrowly lost to Widodo) will control 353 of the 560 seats in parliament.
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 0.14 percent to 5,198.90 points on the last trading day of the week, the first day of decline in five trading days, as investors engaged in profit taking after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court confirmed the official election result of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that announced Joko Widodo as winner of the July 2014 presidential election. Next week investors may continue profit taking as the index is still overbought.
It took almost six hours for the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) to read out 300 pages of a lengthy 4,392-page verdict in the case filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to widespread violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.
At 14:00 pm local Jakarta time zone, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) is expected to announce its decision on Prabowo Subianto’s election result challenge. The defeated presidential candidate filed a court case claiming that massive fraud and violations took place amid the voting and counting processes in the context of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election, won by Joko Widodo (securing 53.15 percent of the votes). Although the court’s decision is final and legally binding, Subianto not expected to surrender yet.
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed 0.31 percent to 5,206.14 points on Thursday's trading (21/08) on speculation that Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will reject defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the official July 2014 presidential result is illegal due to massive violations. Although the Court is still reading out the verdict, it has already indicated that evidence for violations is incomplete and unconvincing. Therefore, a Court decision that calls for revoting has become unlikely.
When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.
