Credit rating agency Standards & Poor's (S&P) says Indonesia (and Malaysia) need to increase efforts to build a good track record of timely and reasonable power tariffs adjustments in order to ensure decent returns for investors and recover their costs. Delays in energy price revisions, which are sometimes the result of political strategy, are the key risk that jeopardize the financial stability (and credit profile) of state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). S&P therefore advises the Indonesian government to enhance efforts to ensure a sound regulatory framework (i.e. a transparent tariff rate-setting mechanism).

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On Monday (03/11), several important macroeconomic data were released by statistics Indonesia. Firstly, inflation was relatively high in October at 0.47 percent month-on-month (m/m). Secondly, Indonesia posted another trade deficit in September (USD $270 million). Thirdly, Indonesia's October manufacturing activity showed a contraction (the country’s manufacturing Purchasing Manages' Index fell to a 14-month low of 49.2 in October). Lastly, a total of 791,300 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released various economic data today (01/10) - including inflation, the trade balance and manufacturing activity - that give a good indication about the state of the Indonesian economy. Although not all data was positive, market participants were content, evidenced by an appreciating rupiah exchange rate and rising Indonesian stocks. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.43 percent to IDR 12,135 per US dollar, while the Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.06 percent on Tuesday (01/10).

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Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) passed an important geothermal bill in a plenary session on Tuesday (26/08). This new bill is expected to be a great leap in the development of geothermal power in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Indonesia contains the world's largest geothermal energy reserves. However the country only uses a small fraction of this geothermal potential. Meanwhile, amid robust economic growth, the country is in serious need to provide more electricity and power to its people and businesses.

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Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be present at the official launch of four geothermal power plants (the Ulumbu, Ropa, Ndunga and Mataloko plants) on 11 September 2014 on Flores (East Nusa Tenggara). These plants will supply 20 megawatts of electricity to eight regencies on the island (West Manggarai, Manggarai, East Manggarai, Ngada, Nagekeo, Ende, Sikka and East Flores). Indonesia is estimated to have the world's largest geothermal energy reserves. However, the country only uses a fraction of its geothermal potential.

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Soon-to-be president of Indonesia Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) stated that he intends to cut the large fuel and electricity subsidies once in office. Indonesia’s Revised State Budget of 2015 (RAPBN 2015) allocates IDR 363.5 trillion (about USD $31.2 billion) to energy subsidies. This figure accounts for about 18 percent of total government spending (IDR 2,019.9 trillion) set for 2015. Although the energy subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society, they cause complex problems in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  

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On 17 August 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of the rupiah exchange rate, plantations, Freeport Indonesia, economic growth, electricity, property, guidelines for the construction of a PT PMA, and more.

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Despite having abundant natural resources at its disposal (including coal and gas), Indonesia has difficulty to supply enough electricity to its people and businesses. Robust economic growth over the past decade has given rise to increased domestic demand for electricity but the country has not been able to adequately meet demand resulting in frequent blackouts and in one of the lowest electrification rates (the percentage of Indonesian households connected to the nation's electricity grid) in the region (about 80.4 percent at end-2013).

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Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the state-owned utility company that has a monopoly on the distribution of electricity in Indonesia, recorded a 158 percent growth (year-on-year) in net profit to IDR 12.3 trillion (USD $1.1 billion) in the first half of 2014 due to improved operational efficiency and a foreign-exchange gain of IDR 4.4 trillion (USD $376 million). Meanwhile, the company's revenue increased 24 percent to IDR 145.1 trillion (USD $12.4 billion) as electricity sales increased and PLN received more subsidies from the Indonesian government.

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Indonesian state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) said that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - is expected to nearly double domestic consumption of thermal coal over the next eight years in an attempt to meet the nation's growing electricity demand. Moreover, coal, of which the country has huge reserves at its disposal, is regarded a better fuel source in electricity generation compared to expensive diesel. At present, many power stations in Indonesia are still diesel-powered.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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As companies' financial results of 2013 slowly start to be released, two reports - so far - have raised eyebrows due to significant declines in net profit. These are publicly listed, but majority state-owned, airline Garuda Indonesia and fully state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Both companies felt the impact of the sharply depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. The currency fell over 21 percent against the US dollar in 2013 due to capital outflows amid looming US tapering and current account deficit concerns.

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The government of Indonesia - through its Ministry of National Development Planning (known as Bappenas) - designed three funding scenarios for Indonesia's infrastructure development in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN 2015-2019). The lack of appropriate infrastructure is one of the bottlenecks to Indonesia's development. The scenarios involve the amount of funds and other requirements for infrastructure investment. The three scenarios are divided into a 'full scenario', a 'partial scenario' and a 'baseline scenario'.

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Asep Sugiharta, an official at the Ministry of Forestry, said that a new bill has been submitted to Indonesia's parliament (DPR) which is expected to open up the potential for geothermal power development in Indonesia. Currently, geothermal exploitation is lawfully defined as a 'mining activity' (Law No. 27 2003) and therefore prohibited to be conducted in protected forest and conservation areas (Law No. 41 1999), even though geothermal mining activities have a relatively small impact on the environment (compared to other mining activities).

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Bertrand van Ee, Chairman of International engineering and project management consultancy Royal HaskoningDHV joined the Netherlands Prime Minister Rutte, Minister Ploumen and Minister Dijksma on their trade mission to Indonesia from 20 to 22 November 2013. During this visit, TIRASA and Royal HaskoningDHV signed a Head of Cooperation Agreement with the intention to collaborate in developing a total of 100 MW of small scale hydropower plants in Indonesia in the next 5 years, starting with feasibility studies in the targeted regions.

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State-owned electricity provider Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) stated that consumption of electricity in Indonesia grew 7.2 percent to 90,48 terawatt hour (twh) in the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period last year. Head of PLN's Commercial Division, Benny Marbun, explained that Indonesia's industrial sector particularly consumed more electricity. Although industrial customers of PLN only grew by 4.5 percent in Semester 1-2013 (YoY), industrial electricity consumption grew 8.3 percent (YoY).

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Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.

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The release of Indonesia's April deflation figure (0.10%) and orderly May Day demonstrations provided a good environment for investors to continue purchasing Indonesian stocks (despite uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel policy. Moreover, positive Asian stock indices - in combination with positive European openings on Wednesday - made the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) rise to a new record level of 5,060.92 points on Wednesday (01/05/13), a 0.53 percent gain.

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The heavily subsidized fuel price of Indonesia is likely to be raised next month according to Indonesian media sources. Various high officials, including Economic minister Hatta Rajasa, discussed the possibility to raise the fuel price from IDR 4,500 (USD $0.46) to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.67) per liter starting from May. This increase will only apply to private passenger cars, and not to motorcycles and public transportation. However, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has not made up his mind yet.

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