Indonesian government officials announced that the recently-unveiled palm oil export levies will be imposed starting from Thursday (16/07). The new rules require that a USD $50 per metric ton levy is imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, and a USD $30 per metric ton levy is imposed on exports of processed palm oil products. These palm oil export levies only need to be paid by exporters when the government’s reference CPO price falls below USD $750 per metric ton, effectively cutting the palm oil export tax to zero.

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Uncertainty remains about the timing of the implementation of Indonesia's new palm oil export levies. In May 2015 Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a new regulation stipulating that a USD $50 (per metric ton) levy is to be imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) levy on processed palm oil product exports. Proceeds from these export levies will be used to fund the Indonesian government’s biodiesel (subsidy) program. However, implementation of the new regulation has been delayed several times.

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Indonesia’s new palm oil export levy is to be implemented in late May 2015. Rida Mulyana, Director General of Renewable Energy at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, stated that President Joko Widodo signed the regulation last night (05/05). The new levy means that a USD $50 (per metric ton) levy is to be imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) exports, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) levy on processed palm oil product exports. Proceeds from these export levies will be used to fund the government’s biodiesel (subsidy) program.

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Being the barometer of the Indonesian economy - due to the company’s presence in various sectors of the economy - the financial performance of Astra International in the first quarter of 2015 provides valuable information about the current condition of the Indonesian economy (ahead of the official release of the country’s Q1-2015 GDP growth). As Astra’s net profit and revenue declined 15.6 percent and 9 percent, respectively, from the same quarter last year, investors’ concern about the country’s Q1-2015 GDP growth figure is justified.

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After having decided to introduce export levies for palm oil, the Indonesian government is considering to impose similar measures on rubber, coffee and other commodities in a move to generate capital to invest in the country’s agriculture industry. Per April 2015, a USD $50 (per metric ton) export levy is imposed on crude palm oil (CPO) shipments, and a USD $30 (per metric ton) export levy on processed palm oil export products. Proceeds from these CPO levies will be allocated to finance the government’s biodiesel program.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) shipments from Malaysia climbed 18 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March as firms rushed to export CPO ahead of the (re)introduction of a 4.5 percent CPO export tax in April. This export tax had been scrapped since September 2014 in an effort to boost global CPO demand and prices. A median suggests that CPO production in Malaysia rose 18 percent (m/m) to 1.32 million tons in March, which would mean that palm oil production in Malaysia rose for the first time in seven months.

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The government of Indonesia plans to adjust its crude palm oil (CPO) export tax policy. Chief Economics Minister Sofyan Djalil said that the government is about to impose a fixed levy of USD $50 per metric ton on CPO exports when CPO prices decline below the government’s threshold of USD $750 per ton, implying that it will become impossible for Indonesian palm oil exporters to ship output without charge. Currently, palm oil exporters can export CPO output duty-free as prices have been below the USD $750 threshold since September 2014.

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It is estimated that Indonesia’s export of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives have fallen in February 2015 due to sluggish demand from India and China, the world’s two largest palm oil importers, while the globe’s soybean output increased (soybean oil is a close substitute to palm oil for food and biodiesel uses). Based on a median of six palm oil growers, analysts and official estimates, Indonesian shipments of palm oil (including palm kernel) fell six percent month-to-month (m/m) to 1.7 million metric tons in February.

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Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose about 15 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.8 million tons in January 2015 from the same month last year. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis Indonesian CPO exports fell 8 percent in the first month of 2015. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said that CPO exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy declined in January as demand from nearly all main CPO export markets, particularly China and India, fell at the year-start.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) believes that it is difficult for Indonesia to achieve the government’s target of collecting USD $36 billion by 2019 through crude palm oil (CPO) exports as several government policies disturb the performance of CPO exports. Moreover, global commodity prices (including palm oil) are still showing a downward trend - hence limiting foreign exchange earnings - as global economic growth remains sluggish. Economic growth of China, a major CPO importer, is expected to slow further this year.

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Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.

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In order to curb imports of oil, the government of Indonesia intends to stimulate the production of crude palm oil-based biofuel by increasing the mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (which is made from palm oil) in biodiesel products from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. Through this policy, the government claims to be able to save up to USD $3 billion as it needs less fuel imports. Fuel imports totaled USD $5.8 billion in the first six months of 2013 and form a major cause for the USD $9.8 billion current account deficit in Q2-2013.

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Indonesia's production of crude palm oil (CPO) in the first six months of 2013 rose 25.64 percent compared to semester I-2012 to 14.7 million tons, which is a little over half of this year's CPO production target. Despite weak global demand for the commodity (accompanied by falling CPO prices), growth was accomplished due to new seeds that became productive and because the total size of Indonesian palm oil estates continues to expand. Productive estates now stand at 9.4 million hectares from 8.7 million hectares last year.

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Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) in June 2013 grew about 29 percent to 1.62 million ton compared to the same month last year. Although production of CPO in Indonesia slowed down in June, higher demand for Indonesia's CPO is met because there are still sufficient amounts of stockpiles. A high official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that stockpiles in 2012 grew to 5 million tons as global demand for the commodity weakened sharply amid international economic turmoil.

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The recovery in global palm oil prices that seemed to have started last spring, has ended. A few months ago, optimism had colored expectations of many analysts as palm oil prices went up about 10 percent between early May and mid-June, after tumbling 30 percent in 2012 (causing that palm oil was one of the worst performing commodities in terms of price growth last year). However, the palm oil price increase earlier this year was merely the result of falling production rates in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers.

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The price of crude palm oil (CPO), which has been under downward pressure for a long time as global turmoil lingers on, started to rebound due to falling stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia. Reserves of the commodity fell because of weather conditions and because of an increase in demand ahead of the Islamic fasting month (Ramadhan). The price of crude palm oil is expected to hit the USD $900 per ton mark in late 2013, up from USD $828-865 per ton in May and June. This price recovery is expected to continue.

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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Last week, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono extended the moratorium on new permits to convert natural forests and peat lands for a further two years. In 2011, Indonesia's government signed the two-year primary forest moratorium that came into effect on 20 May 2011 and expired in May 2013. This moratorium implies a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands in the country. The moratorium particularly aims to limit Indonesia's quickly expanding palm oil industry.

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