On 31 May 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as Indonesia’s GDP growth, a stocks and rupiah update, the IPO of Puradelta Lestari, Indonesia’s participation in a news Islamic infrastructure bank, the role of household consumption in the Indonesian economy, and more.

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Most Asian stock markets are down on Wednesday (27/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). The IHSG was down 0.95 percent to 5,270.22 points by 14:32 pm local Jakarta time. The poor performance of stocks across Asia today followed yesterday’s falling US stock markets. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all declined about 1 percent on US dollar strength after the release of several strong US economic data (supporting a US interest rate hike before the year-end) and heightened concerns about the debt crisis in Greece.

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The Indonesian rupiah started the new trading week on a negative note. By 10:45 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.17 percent to IDR 13,181 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The primary reason for this performance is that the US dollar has strengthened globally after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated that she is convinced that the world will see the first US interest rate hike in almost a decade before the end of the year (provided that US economic data continue to improve).

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Indonesian stocks continued to rise one day after the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced to leave the interest rate policy unchanged and, instead, choosing to loosen its macro-prudential policy by revising the LDR-RR regulation, LTV policy for mortgage loans and down payments on automotive loans, hence increasing liquidity and boosting credit growth in the banking sector. Indonesia's rupiah, however, depreciated sharply after the market opened on Wednesday (20/05) due to the strong US dollar.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) showed that it is committed to its relatively tight monetary stance as it left interest rates unchanged at its May Board of Governor’s Meeting. Despite pressures from the government and business players to cut interest rates (which would boost economic growth), Bank Indonesia maintained its key BI rate at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. In the first quarter of 2015 Indonesia’s economic growth had slowed to a disappointing 4.71 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia’s rupiah continued to weaken on Monday’s trading day (18/05). The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,113 per US dollar by 12:08 pm based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank’s Board of Governor’s Meeting, scheduled for Tuesday (19/05). At this meeting Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will discuss and determine its stance on the country’s interest rate environment. Currently, the key rate (BI rate) is set relatively high at 7.50 percent.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again depreciating. On Tuesday (12/05), the rupiah had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,206 per US dollar by 11:51 am local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The primary reason for this weak performance today is US dollar demand amid heightened concerns about Greece’s debt situation. Talks between the Greek leftist government and its international partners are heading toward a crucial phase. As a result, the greenback is appreciating against almost all Asian currencies.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (08/05) that the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell approximately USD $700 million to USD $110.87 billion at the end of April 2015 (from USD $111.55 billion one month earlier). The decline was due to government foreign debt payments as well as central bank efforts to stabilize the rupiah currency amid the current volatile and uncertain (global and domestic) economic context. In April, the rupiah appreciated 0.8 percent against the US dollar.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah improved on the last trading day of the week supported by moderately rising indices on Wall Street on Thursday (07/05), which was in stark contrast to heavy selling that occurred one day earlier after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s statement that US stock prices may be overvalued. Meanwhile, weak trade data from China could a reason for policymakers to provide more stimulus. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index climbed 0.62 percent to 5,182.21 points on Friday (08/05).

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After seeing the disappointing GDP growth figure of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, investors have become concerned about Indonesia’s economic growth in the remainder of the year. The poor Q1-2015 GDP growth was caused by the country’s weak export performance (due to the sluggish global economy and low commodity prices), Indonesia’s high interest rate environment (curbing people’s purchasing power and business expansion of local companies), and sluggish government spending.

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As financial market turbulence has reached extreme levels over the last several weeks, recent events have severely limited this year’s prospects for economic growth in both developed markets and emerging markets. Of course, it is still too early to accurately assess the true macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, so we are still dealing with broad conjectures more than anything else. But the widespread limitations on that have been placed upon international travelers and the severity of business disruptions that have been seen around the world will almost certainly impact global GDP figures for the next several quarters.

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In February 2020 all eyes were on the novel coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the global financial markets. Especially when the new virus spread across European countries toward the end of the month, market participants started selling their assets, causing huge sell-offs around the globe.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated in August 2019. The currency started the month at the level of IDR 14,026 per US dollar, but ended the month at IDR 14,237 per US dollar (data taken from Bank Indonesia’s benchmark Jisdor rate). In other words, the rupiah weakened 1.50 percent against greenback in August 2019.

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The Indonesian rupiah rate weakened against the US dollar in March 2019. Bank Indonesia’s benchmark JISDOR rate finished the third month of the year at a position of IDR 14,244 per US dollar, down 1.29 percent compared to the level of IDR 14,062 per US dollar that was set at the last trading day of February 2019. Nevertheless, compared to the start of the year, the rupiah has remained in positive territory, having appreciated 1.64 percent against the US greenback in the first quarter of 2019.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate at 6.00 percent at the February policy meeting that was held on 20-21 February 2019. Also the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively.

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The Indonesian rupiah appreciated markedly in January 2019, and reached its strongest level since the end of June last year. The benchmark JISDOR rate of Bank Indonesia ended the first month of 2019 at IDR 14,072 per US dollar, strengthening from the level of IDR 14,481 per US dollar at the last trading day of 2018. Or, in other words, the rupiah managed to appreciate 2.82 percent against the greenback in the first month of 2019.

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In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rates unchanged at the last monetary policy meeting of 2018 (held on 19-20 December 2018). The benchmark BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate was held at 6.00 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 5.25 percent and 6.75 percent, respectively.

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Robust rupiah appreciation in the month of November 2018 has taken many people – such as policymakers, businessmen, and analysts, including us – by surprise.

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It are challenging times for businessmen and investors in Indonesia. An escalating trade war between the United States and China is felt by emerging markets including Indonesia. For example, the rupiah has weakened to a 20-year low against the US dollar. Meanwhile, Indonesia's legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for April 2019 and the results can have big consequences for the country's investment climate.

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Based on the latest reports - and contrary to earlier plans - the Indonesian government will not postpone the development of 15,200 MW of power projects. Earlier the government said it wanted to delay various power projects in an effort to curtail imports, thus improve the country's current account balance and ease heavy pressures on the rupiah exchange rate.

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