Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (05/08) that the Indonesian economy grew 4.67 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. However, the result was in line with expectation. Most analysts assumed that economic growth would continue to slow as there has been no rebound in global commodity prices, interest rates remained high, people’s purchasing power weakened, government spending remained problematic, companies Q2-2015 earnings reports were not too good, and manufacturing contracted.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see Indonesian inflation in July in the range of 0.46 - 0.60 percent month-on-month (m/m). Inflation in Indonesia always peaks during the months June, July and August due to increased consumer spending in the context of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations as well as the start of the new school season. Earlier this month, Governor Agus Martowadojo said to expect annual inflation to dip below 7 percent in July, from 7.26 percent (y/y) in June.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5 percent (y/y). During a press conference on Tuesday (07/07) in Jakarta, Edimon Ginting, Deputy Country Director for Indonesia of the Philippines-based ADB, said that there are three reasons that explain why the ADB has become less optimistic about Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015. Last year, Indonesia’s economic growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y).

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Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined ahead of the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve which started today (28/04). Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) managed to limit losses. After the 3.49 percent fall yesterday, the IHSG was down 1 percent after the first trading session today. However, near the closure of the market the index improved markedly resulting in a small loss of 0.06 percent only. Due to severe losses over the past couple of trading sessions, some oversold blue chip shares became attractive.

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The World Bank released its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly report on 18 March 2015. In this report, entitled ‘High Expectations’, the World Bank states that it praises the early reform progress in several key areas such as fuel subsidies as well as more key reforms that are underway. This raises high expectations about the Indonesian economy in the middle and longer term. However, the government also faces challenges to implement further complex structural reforms amid subdued growth prospects.

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The Indonesian government has further reformed its decade-old fuel subsidy policy in a move to streamline - and make more structural use of - public spending. The latest change is effective from today (1 January 2015) and thus Indonesia moved a step closer to applying a market-based price mechanism. The government now uses a fixed diesel subsidy of IDR 1,000 (USD $0.08) per liter, while subsidy for low-octane gasoline is scrapped altogether (however the government will account for gasoline distribution costs outside Java, Madura and Bali).

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Soon-to-be president of Indonesia Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) stated that he intends to cut the large fuel and electricity subsidies once in office. Indonesia’s Revised State Budget of 2015 (RAPBN 2015) allocates IDR 363.5 trillion (about USD $31.2 billion) to energy subsidies. This figure accounts for about 18 percent of total government spending (IDR 2,019.9 trillion) set for 2015. Although the energy subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society, they cause complex problems in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  

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Chatib Basri, the Finance Minister of Indonesia, expects Indonesia's economy to expand 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. As such, total gross domestic product (GDP) growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy in 2013 will total between 5.6 to 5.7 percent in 2013. This result will imply that Indonesia's economic expansion in 2013 has slowed down for the second straight year, mainly due to global economic turmoil. In 2011 and 2012, the country's economy expanded by 6.5 percent and 6.2 percent respectively.

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The depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate has large consequences for Indonesia's state budget, in particular fuel subsidy spending, as the government imports a large quantity of its crude oil demand (in US dollars). The weak rupiah, which has depreciated about 25 percent against the US dollar since the start of 2013, results in a ballooning of fuel subsidy spending. In the Revised State Budget of 2013, fuel subsidies were set at IDR 199.9 trillion but after the rupiah's downslide, another IDR 50 trillion is needed to cover the imports.

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Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to move sideways in the first quarter of 2014. Finance Minister Chatib Basri forecasts a growth rate of between 5.7 and 5.8 percent, similar to the growth pace that was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013 (5.78 percent). Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), economic growth in Indonesia has slowed since the second quarter of 2013. In Q2-2013, Indonesia's GDP expanded by 5.89 percent, thereby ending a ten-quarter streak of +6 percentage growth.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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The government of Indonesia proposes to allocate IDR 336.24 trillion (USD $32.6 billion) for subsidy spending in the 2014 state budget draft: IDR 284.7 trillion (USD $27.6 billion) for energy subsidies and IDR 51.6 trillion (USD $5.0 billion) for non-energy subsidies. The proposed amount implies a 3.41 percent fall in total subsidy allocation compared to Indonesia's state budget in 2013. However, despite a reduction, subsidy expenditure is still large at 18.5 percent of total government spending (IDR 1,816.7 trillion).

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Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

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Realization of Indonesia's budget deficit in the first half of 2013 reached IDR 54.5 trillion (USD $5.5 billion) or 0.58 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). The figure is still well below the target that is set in the revised state budget of 2013, namely IDR 224.2 trillion (USD $22.6 billion) or 2.38 percent of GDP. As a percentage of GDP, the outcome of the deficit in the first half of 2013 was lower than that in the first half of 2012. However, if we compare it with the years 2010 and 2011, the budget deficit in the first half of 2013 is high.

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Data released by a department of Indonesia's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's budget deficit amounted to IDR 25.9 trillion (USD $2.64 billion) on 31 May 2013. This figure is equivalent to 16.9 percent of the target that is set in the 2013 State Budget (IDR 153.3 trillion). The IDR 25.9 trillion deficit translates to 0.27 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). The maximum amount of deficit - as stipulated by the State Budget Law of 2013 - that is allowed to be maintained is equivalent to 1.65 percent of GDP.

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The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.

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