For the 4th year in a row Indonesian inflation was under control. Based on data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate was 3.13 percent in full-year 2018. By Indonesian standards, that is a low inflation figure. The final figure even fell below the central government’s 3.5 percent (y/y) target that was set in the 2018 state budget and it fell below our (revised) prediction of 3.25 percent (y/y). But it did fall conveniently within the central bank’s wide target range of 2.5 – 4.5 percent (y/y).

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It could be a coincidence but there is a peak in high-profile corruption cases ahead of the 2019 elections. In another article in the October 2018 research report we discuss the cases of the Lippo Group and Sinar Mas Group, two of the biggest conglomerates in Indonesia. It is widely known that big companies have their networks in political circles, such as the House of Representatives (DPR) and at the political top in provinces.

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Nearly one year after US President Donald Trump confirmed the US would recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison followed suit by suggesting that Australia plans to make the same risky move. Morrison said Australia is considering to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move its embassy to the holy city.

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On Monday (08/10) Indonesia Investments released the September 2018 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of September 2018 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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After Ma'ruf Amin, who is Chairman of the Indonesian Ulema Council (in Indonesian: Majelis Ulama Indonesia, or MUI), accepted Indonesian President Joko Widodo's invitation to become the latter's running mate in Indonesia's 2019 presidential election, there occurred some uncertainty about Amin's position within the MUI.

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Incumbent President Joko Widodo is expected to announce his running mate for the 2019 presidential election this evening (Thursday 09/08). All local media are gathered at Plataran Restaurant in Menteng (Central Jakarta) where the leaders of those political parties that support Widodo meet for an announcement. Also present is former chief justice of Indonesia's Constitutional Court Mahfud MD. Thus, it seemed clear who had been selected as Widodo's vice presidential candidate.

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Indonesia Investments received information that presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto has selected Deputy Jakarta Governor Sandiaga Uno to become his vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election. The choice for Uno is allegedly accepted by Subianto's Gerindra party as well as by the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

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On Wednesday (27/06) around 150 million people are estimated to have cast their vote for the local elections in 169 regions across Indonesia (in two Papuan districts elections were delayed due to administrative and security reasons). There have not been any reports of disturbances (including fraud) and we can therefore assume that the elections went peacefully (and fair) across Indonesia.

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While according to the opinion polls incumbent President Joko Widodo has a big lead over his (seemingly only) rival Prabowo Subianto for the 2019 presidential election, he declines to comment on the race. Instead Widodo - often called Jokowi - chooses to remain focused on work as "a lot has not been completed yet".

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Entering the second quarter of 2018 chief executive officers (CEOs) have become less optimistic about the Indonesian economy and politics. This should be no surprise considering there have emerged significant concerns about a looming global trade war (with the USA and China as main actors), while further monetary tightening in the USA has been putting pressure on the Indonesian rupiah.

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Yes, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who recently won the 2019 presidential election and will therefore guide the world’s largest Archipelago in the 2019-2024 period, said the composition of his new cabinet (which is scheduled to be inaugurated in October 2019) has been finalized. But, no, he has not mentioned any names of the future ministers.

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There was a new kid on the block in national politics ahead of Indonesia's 2014 elections. Joko Widodo (often called Jokowi), gained tremendous popularity among Indonesians when he was Governor of Jakarta (2012-2014). This popularity was based on his humble background as well as his humble behavior, his eagerness to reform existing structures and patterns, and his “pro-people” attitude. Previously, Widodo (who is an ex-furniture businessman) had been mayor of Solo (Central Java) from 2005 to 2012. His time as mayor was a success. However, he would really step into the national spotlight once he had won Jakarta’s gubernatorial election in 2012.

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In Transparency International’s ‘Corruption Perceptions Index’ (CPI), Indonesia is rising slowly, yet continuously. In the latest edition, which was released in January 2019, Indonesia ranked 89th with a score of 38 points (the CPI uses a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is fully corrupt and 100 is completely clean).

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On Thursday 17 January 2019 the first debate between the two presidential pairs - (1) Joko Widodo & Ma'ruf Amin and (2) Prabowo Subianto & Sandiaga Uno - took place at Hotel Bidakara in Pancoran (South Jakarta). It is the first one of a total of five planned debates between the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the months ahead of the legislative and presidential elections that are scheduled for 17 April 2019 (although the date of the 5th debate is yet to be determined).

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We have entered 2019, which means we have entered a huge political year with the legislative and presidential elections scheduled for 17 April 2019. Indonesia is a young democracy that is maturing – hence experiences growing pains – and where various sides are engaged in a battle to get a hold of the highest political power in Indonesia.

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Ahead of the legislative and presidential elections (scheduled for April 2019) the Indonesian government is unwilling to impose impopular measures. One of the side-effects is that subsidy spending has gone beyond the target that was set in the 2018 State Budget. Lets take a closer look at spending on energy subsidies in Indonesia so far this year.

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It are challenging times for businessmen and investors in Indonesia. An escalating trade war between the United States and China is felt by emerging markets including Indonesia. For example, the rupiah has weakened to a 20-year low against the US dollar. Meanwhile, Indonesia's legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for April 2019 and the results can have big consequences for the country's investment climate.

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On 23 September 2018 the campaign period officially started for Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election. This period runs up to 13 April 2019 (while the election is scheduled for 17 April 2019). Despite the start of the campaign period it has remained rather calm between the two opposing sides: (1) incumbent President Joko Widodo with Islamic clerk Ma’ruf Amin versus (2) Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto with businessman Sandiaga Uno.

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The local Jakarta administration has officially revoked principle permits for the development of 13 artificial islands (reclaimed islands) in the bay of Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta. For now, the decision means a complete stop to all activities related to the ambitious land reclamation project north of Jakarta.

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It is finally clear which pairs will compete in Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election. On Saturday August 10th, 2018 (only hours before the deadline ended), political parties officially registered their presidential and vice-presidential candidates at the General Elections Commission (in Indonesian: Komisi Pemilihan Umum, or KPU). As was widely assumed, only two pairs will compete in the 2019 presidential election. Thus, there are also two coalitions of political parties.

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