The 2020 United States (US) presidential election, held on 3 November 2020, was a fascinating one. The battle between incumbent US President Donald Trump and his rival Joe Biden (the Democratic Party’s candidate) was so close that election night ended without a clear winner. For those who favor one candidate over the other, it was (and is) an emotional roller coaster. For Indonesia Investments, which takes a neutral stance in the election, it is simply a fascinating course of events.

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When looking at the trade data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS) on Monday (16/04) there is something interesting about Indonesia’s steel exports. Indonesia is a relatively small steel producing nation (and actually imports about half of its domestic steel consumption, mostly from China) but its iron & steel exports to the USA soared over 1,500 percent month-on-month (m/m) from USD $2.13 million in February 2018 to USD $35 million in March 2018. Reason behind this surge may very well be the trade war between China and the USA.

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Asian markets were the first to react to American-led strikes on Syria carried out on late Friday evening (13/04). The strikes were an answer to a chemical attack in Douma on April 7, allegedly conducted by the Syrian government under the leadership of President Bashar Assad. The US strike on Syria - supported by France and the United Kingdom - caused US-Russian relations to hit a new low. However, the strike did not lead to direct military confrontations between the USA and Russia and therefore markets are somewhat relieved on Monday.

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Many Asian stocks are in deep red territory dragged down by a 3.49 percent decline of Japan's Nikkei 225 index in the morning of Friday (23/03). The Nikkei 225 is responding to plunging stocks on Wall Street overnight where the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.9 percent, while both the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5 percent, each. All three benchmark US indexes suffered their biggest drops since 8 February 2018.

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Amid mixed markets in Asia, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.95 percent to 6,321.90 points on Thursday (15/03). Asian markets were plagued by the same negative market sentiments that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to suffer their third consecutive daily decline overnight. Investors continue to be alarmed by trade policy changes initiated by the USA and possibly responded by other nations.

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With Donald Trump in office there exists huge volatility in terms of politics, foreign diplomatic relations, and trade-related policies. One day the US is on the brink of a "fire and fury" war with North Korea, then the next day Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agree to meet for talks. One day the US shocks the world by announcing steep steel and aluminum import tariffs, the next day trading partners are invited to negotiate lower tariffs. One day Rex Tillerson is US Secretary of State, the next he is fired by Trump through Twitter.

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On Thursday evening (08/03) Washington time, South Korea's national security adviser Chung Eui-yong announced - at the White House - that North Korea's belligerent leader Kim Jong Un invited US President Donald Trump for talks. Trump accepted the invitation and both parties are expected to meet by May 2018. It would be an unprecedented move as a sitting US president has never met a North Korean leader.

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Most Asian stocks are in the red zone on Wednesday (07/03) after it was reported that Gary Cohn is to resign as adviser to US President Donald Trump. Cohn, who is well-regarded in the business community and markets, opposes Trump's looming protectionist import tariffs (a 25 percent import tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum). Seeing Cohn lose the battle in the White House, markets have become more concerned about the possible outbreak of a global trade war.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under heavy pressure over the past month amid US dollar strength ahead of the March Federal Reserve policy meeting where market participants expect to see another interest rate hike. The rupiah weakened 2.92 percent from IDR 13,402 per US dollar on 1 February 2018 to IDR 13,793 on 1 March 2018. Not only the rupiah but basically currencies have been sliding against the US dollar that touched a six-week high earlier in the week.

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Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Lestari Priansari Marsudi said the Indonesian government imposed zero tariffs for certain Palestinian products entering Indonesia since the start of the year. This policy aims at supporting Palestine economically.

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Indonesian assets were the worst performers in Asia on Thursday's trading day (03/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 1.41 percent to 5,329.50 points, the largest single-day drop in the past two months. The performance of Indonesia was in line with the regional (and global) trend. Over the past couple of days a worldwide selloff occurred as polls indicate that the US presidential race between Hillary Clinton (Democrats) and Donald Trump (Republicans) is tighter than initially assumed.

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