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Latest Reports Prabowo Subianto
On Tuesday 5 November 2024 Indonesia Investments released the October 2024 edition of its monthly report, titled: "Eight President of Indonesia Enters Office – the Transition in Focus". It presents analyses of political, economic and social matters that were relevant in Indonesian society in October 2024.
On Sunday 20 October 2024, Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated as Indonesia’s eight president for the 2024-2029 period at the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)/House of Representatives (DPR) building in Jakarta.
Based on the quick count results, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will win the 2024 presidential election by a comfortable margin. Not only does he enjoy around 57-59 percent of the national votes, but he also seems to control at least 20 percent of the votes in over 20 provinces. This would mean that a second round is not even necessary. Still, we have to wait for the official result that is scheduled to be released on 20 March 2024.
Today -14 February 2024- a total of 204.8 million Indonesian voters are allowed to visit the ballot boxes to vote for their preferred presidential candidate and political party for the 2024-2029 period. Voting takes place between 07:00 am and 13:00 pm (local time).
In this month’s update, we are only focusing on the latest developments in terms of the upcoming 2024 legislative and presidential elections (that are scheduled for 14 February 2024). And so, for a wider analysis and background of these elections, we refer the reader to our articles published in earlier reports.
Each quarter we present an update on the 2024 legislative and presidential elections of Indonesia. These elections are important as Indonesia is still a young democracy where policies can change rather suddenly and drastically.
While the 2024 general elections of Indonesia (involving both the presidential and legislative elections) are scheduled to be held on 14 February 2024, we expect to see a growing focus on these approaching elections throughout 2023. The reason is that campaigning will kick off before the end of 2023 (namely on 28 November 2023).
Those who closely follow Indonesian media should have noticed that there has been an increase in coverage of the approaching 2024 presidential election. This involves articles and analyses of the electability of certain political persons (including polls and surveys) but also articles that we consider (hidden) marketing.
On Thursday (27.06.2019) Indonesia's Constitutional Court read out its verdict on the subject of alleged election campaign violations in the 2019 presidential election that was held on 17 April 2019. Defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto had filed the legal challenge as he felt the official results (which had been announced by Indonesia's General Elections Commission/KPU) were heavily influenced by widespread fraud and vote-buying.
In the early morning of Tuesday 21 May 2019, Indonesia's General Elections Commission (KPU) declared incumbent President Joko Widodo the winner of Indonesia's 2019 presidential election. Meanwhile, the KPU also stated that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) secured most support among the Indonesian people.
Latest Columns Prabowo Subianto
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have rebounded on Friday due to several internal and external factors. During the first trading session on Friday (17/10), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) surged 0.94 percent to 4,998.14 points. Meanwhile, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.26 percent to IDR 12,228 per US dollar by 12:30 pm local Jakarta time. Why do Indonesian stocks and the rupiah perform well on Friday?
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) took another dive on Wednesday (08/10). The decline was not only caused by the negative influence of declining stock indices in the USA and Europe on the previous day, triggered by the downgraded global economic growth forecast released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but also because the market responded negatively to the voting result for the post of speaker of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR).
Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.
Technically the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) had to rebound after sharp declines during the last couple of trading days making Indonesian stocks relatively cheap. The IHSG was also supported by rising stock indices in Japan and Hong Kong that rose on strong US jobs data (although other Asian markets fell due to concerns about sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the rupiah continued to depreciate as the market is concerned about the political situation in Indonesia.
More and more concerns have arisen recently regarding the democratic future of Indonesia. In fact, some media have reported that an impeachment of president-elect Joko Widodo, who will assume office on 20 October 2014, could become a reality as opposition in parliament - led by controversial and vindictive former army general Prabowo Subianto - is large. The Merah-Putih coalition, referring to the coalition of political parties that supported Subianto in the presidential election (which he narrowly lost to Widodo) will control 353 of the 560 seats in parliament.
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 0.14 percent to 5,198.90 points on the last trading day of the week, the first day of decline in five trading days, as investors engaged in profit taking after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court confirmed the official election result of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that announced Joko Widodo as winner of the July 2014 presidential election. Next week investors may continue profit taking as the index is still overbought.
It took almost six hours for the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) to read out 300 pages of a lengthy 4,392-page verdict in the case filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to widespread violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.
At 14:00 pm local Jakarta time zone, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) is expected to announce its decision on Prabowo Subianto’s election result challenge. The defeated presidential candidate filed a court case claiming that massive fraud and violations took place amid the voting and counting processes in the context of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election, won by Joko Widodo (securing 53.15 percent of the votes). Although the court’s decision is final and legally binding, Subianto not expected to surrender yet.
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed 0.31 percent to 5,206.14 points on Thursday's trading (21/08) on speculation that Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will reject defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the official July 2014 presidential result is illegal due to massive violations. Although the Court is still reading out the verdict, it has already indicated that evidence for violations is incomplete and unconvincing. Therefore, a Court decision that calls for revoting has become unlikely.
When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.
