In line with major stock indices in Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded directly after the opening of trade on Thursday (27/08). The index surged 2.51 percent to 4,344.11 points. Most indices in Asia were up after the US Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed nearly 4 percent on Wednesday (26/08), effectively ending a six-day losing streak, on heightened expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise its key Fed Fund Rate yet in September. However, markets are still plagued by severe volatility.

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There are few signs that Indonesian stocks and the rupiah will rebound on Tuesday (25/08). Benchmark stock indices of China and Japan continued to fall directly after opening on Tuesday and are therefore expected to drag down other markets in Asia. Yesterday, major markets in the USA and Europe slumped, while commodity prices hit new lows (oil slid below USD $40 per barrel for the first time since 2009). The rupiah continued to weaken after opening on Tuesday to IDR 14,065 per US dollar by 09:06 am local Jakarta time.

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For the first time since July 1998, when Indonesia was still plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis, the rupiah has fallen beyond the IDR 14,000 per US dollar mark. Many analysts had already predicted over the past couple of months that Indonesia’s currency would weaken beyond this ‘psychological’ level as external pressures are simply too high. Since 2013 the rupiah has weakening (against the US dollar) as the US Federal Reserve started preparing for monetary tightening. The recent devaluation of China’s yuan added more pressure.

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The global selloff hit Asian markets on Monday (24/08). Stock indices and currencies in the Asian region collapsed dramatically on Monday morning. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 4.66 percent to 4,133.33 points by 10:50 am local Jakarta time, while the rupiah had weakened beyond IDR 14,000 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plunged over 8 percent. What is happening to the emerging market assets in Asia today?

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Last week, Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its relatively high interest rate regime as it is committed to support the ailing rupiah and combat high inflation. Another decision that was revealed by Bank Indonesia is the soon-to-be-introduced regulation that limits total (non-collateral) monthly US dollar purchases to USD $25,000 (down from USD $100,000 previously). This regulation will be implemented in a move to thwart speculators that want to take advantage of the weak and volatile rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to flirt with a 17-year low as the currency is getting closer and closer to the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks took another blow as the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 2.39 percent on Friday (21/08). Such turmoil is not only confined to Indonesia but was felt across Asia and the West. Markets were plagued by selloffs in energy shares (due to falling oil prices) and uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates.

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Contrary to the expectation of most analysts, the US Federal Reserve will possibly refrain from raising its key interest rate in September. On Wednesday evening (19/08) the minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting (held in July) were released and they showed that most officials agreed that the US economy is heading for an interest rate hike but is not quite there yet as inflation remains lower than targeted while the current sluggish global economy poses risks and triggers high volatility.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to weaken on Wednesday (19/08) in line with most other Asian stocks and currencies. Investors are cautious ahead of the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, hence moving into safe haven assets. The minutes are to be released early Thursday morning local Indonesian time. Investors will be searching for signs informing about a possible Fed Fund Rate hike in September. If there are such signs, emerging market assets will be under heavy pressure tomorrow.

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Just before the market closed on Tuesday (18/08) the Indonesian rupiah experienced a remarkable recovery, signalling that the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) intervened to support the ailing currency (after Malaysia’s ringgit, the rupiah is the second-worst performing emerging currency in Asia so far this year, weakening 11.2 percent against the US dollar). Today, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah was gradually falling toward IDR 13,860 per US dollar until it suddenly appreciated markedly.

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For the sixth straight month, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate regime unchanged at Tuesday’s Board of Governor’s meeting (18/08) as it aims to guard the rupiah against severe volatility (which occurred after China’s yuan was allowed to devalue, while markets are still preparing for monetary tightening in the USA) and tries to combat inflation.

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Wall Street and European indices being up at the end of last week had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Monday (28/10), despite experiencing a correction during today's trading day. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), Indonesia's benchmark stock index, joined this trend. After making a strong start, it became susceptible to profit taking and thus had a mixed performance although it ended at 4,590.54 points, a 0.21 percent increase. The IHSG was supported by foreign net buying and an appreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Although at the start of the day the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) went into red territory, it rebounded and managed to gain 1.06 percent to 4,594.85 points at the end of Thursdays' trading day (24/10). Factors that positively influenced the IHSG were net foreign buying of Indonesian stocks and a number of corporate earnings reports that met investors' expectation. These included various property companies such as Sentul City and Modernland Realty as well as a number of banks. The rupiah, on the other hand, depreciated again.

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Amid falling Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) managed to gain 33.8 points to 4,546.50 (+0.75 percent) on Wednesday (23/10). The main reason for today's upward movement was large-scale stock purchases by domestic investors, who are more confident now after it has been expected that the Federal Reserve will not tone down its massive bond-buying program (quantitative easing) in the near future. A few blue chips, including Bank Mandiri and Unilever, were popular stocks today.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), was unable to continue its rising trend of the last week on Tuesday's trading day (22/10). Mixed indices in the United States on the previous day in combination with falling indices in Asia impacted negatively on the IHSG. Other factors that contributed to the IHSG's 1.43 percent downslide to 4,512.74 on Tuesday were weak openings of stock indices in Europe as well as continued foreign selling of Indonesian stocks.

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Rising global stock indices at the end of last week continued to impact positively on Asian stock indices on Monday (21/10), including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Moreover, speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its quantitative easing program until early next year also brought along positive market sentiments. This is expected to result in the inflow of US dollars into emerging markets. On Monday, the IHSG rose 0.70 percent to 4,578.18 despite continued foreign selling and rupiah depreciation.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia, gained 0.61 percent and ended on 4,546.57 on Friday (18/10). Stock trade showed a consolidating trend with the value of transactions in the regular market amounting to IDR 4.39 trillion (USD $388.5 million). Considering the full trading week, the IHSG gained 0.60 percent with an average daily transaction value of IDR 4.18 trillion. This value is below the previous week's average of IDR 4,36 trillion.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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According to Ferry Salanto, Associate Research Director at Colliers International Indonesia, the weakening rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar in recent months has resulted in an increase of property sales in Indonesia, particularly apartments. Salanto says it is not just an investment for the buyer but also a matter of security. Property is currently a better and safer alternative to the holding of rupiahs. In the third quarter of 2013, property sales increased despite the higher benchmark interest rate and the tightening property credit environment.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rebounded on Thursday's trading day (17/10), supported by good news from the United States where finally an agreement was reached regarding the US debt ceiling. This agreement brought positive market sentiments on Asian stock markets, including the IHSG which rose 0.59% to 4,518.93 points. Moreover, Indonesia's minister of Economy Hatta Rajasa stated that Indonesia had not been significantly impacted by the US shutdown issue and this statement also managed to ease investors' concerns.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was down 0.61 percent to 4,492.26 on its first trading day after the Idul Adha celebrations (when Muslims remember that Abraham was willing to sacrifice his son to God). The main reason why the IHSG was down on Wednesday (16/10) was due to continued uncertainty about the US debt ceiling issue, while the deadline (17/10) is closing in. Fitch Ratings put US Treasury bonds on Rating Watch Negative, which might be a first step before a downgrade.

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