The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s meeting. Currently, Bank Indonesia’s key interest rate (BI rate) stands at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. The central bank seems committed to this relatively high interest rate environment as the country’s inflation accelerated to 7.15 percent (y/y) in May, while the rupiah touched a 17-year low on 9 June 2015.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesian stocks declined more than expected during the first trading session on Tuesday (09/06). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 3.12 percent to 4,858.31 points amid heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike as well as worries about the Greek debt situation in the Eurozone. The performance of other Asian stock indices was mixed on Tuesday morning with Shanghai, Singapore and South Korea showing modest gains, while New Zealand, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan were down marginally.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are experiencing severe pressures at the start of the new trading week. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 1.68 percent to 5,014.99 points (a seven-month low), while the rupiah depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 13,385 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (08/06). As such, the rupiah extended its record-low closing in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are the worst performing Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to be a cause for concern as the currency immediately depreciated heavily after trading opened on Monday (08/06). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah hit a new record-low of IDR 13,382 per US dollar in the post Asian Financial Crisis era at 9:10 am. Due to a lack of domestic and international positive sentiments only central bank intervention can support the country's ailing currency. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks followed suit by declining 0.70 percent shortly after opening.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued to set a new record-low in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 13,290 per US dollar on Friday (05/06), the weakest level since 1998. A number of factors are responsible for this weak performance. These include higher bond yields, US dollar demand due to dividend repatriation and debt repayment, Indonesia’s high inflation, uncertainty about the Greek debt crisis and looming higher US interest rates.

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As the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Thursday (04/06), touching a 17-year low, a central bank official tried to ease concerns by stating that Bank Indonesia is always in the foreign exchange and bond markets to monitor movements and ease volatility. On Thursday morning the bond yield, which has been rising since Friday (29/05), was 8.198 percent. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah had depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 13,245 by 11:10 am local Jakarta time.

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In line with other stock indices in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) has been weakening since the start of trading on Wednesday (03/06). Yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street, concern about rising bond yields, worries about the possibility of a default by debt-ridden Greece, and weak macroeconomic data from Indonesia have all contributed to the negative performance of Indonesian stocks so far today. By 11:15 am local time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.42 percent.

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Rising global stock indices at the end of last week continued to impact positively on Asian stock indices on Monday (21/10), including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Moreover, speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its quantitative easing program until early next year also brought along positive market sentiments. This is expected to result in the inflow of US dollars into emerging markets. On Monday, the IHSG rose 0.70 percent to 4,578.18 despite continued foreign selling and rupiah depreciation.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia, gained 0.61 percent and ended on 4,546.57 on Friday (18/10). Stock trade showed a consolidating trend with the value of transactions in the regular market amounting to IDR 4.39 trillion (USD $388.5 million). Considering the full trading week, the IHSG gained 0.60 percent with an average daily transaction value of IDR 4.18 trillion. This value is below the previous week's average of IDR 4,36 trillion.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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According to Ferry Salanto, Associate Research Director at Colliers International Indonesia, the weakening rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar in recent months has resulted in an increase of property sales in Indonesia, particularly apartments. Salanto says it is not just an investment for the buyer but also a matter of security. Property is currently a better and safer alternative to the holding of rupiahs. In the third quarter of 2013, property sales increased despite the higher benchmark interest rate and the tightening property credit environment.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rebounded on Thursday's trading day (17/10), supported by good news from the United States where finally an agreement was reached regarding the US debt ceiling. This agreement brought positive market sentiments on Asian stock markets, including the IHSG which rose 0.59% to 4,518.93 points. Moreover, Indonesia's minister of Economy Hatta Rajasa stated that Indonesia had not been significantly impacted by the US shutdown issue and this statement also managed to ease investors' concerns.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was down 0.61 percent to 4,492.26 on its first trading day after the Idul Adha celebrations (when Muslims remember that Abraham was willing to sacrifice his son to God). The main reason why the IHSG was down on Wednesday (16/10) was due to continued uncertainty about the US debt ceiling issue, while the deadline (17/10) is closing in. Fitch Ratings put US Treasury bonds on Rating Watch Negative, which might be a first step before a downgrade.

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On 12 October 2013 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors from Korea and Indonesia agreed to establish a bilateral KRW/IDR swap arrangement in the near future. The size of the swap arrangement is up to KRW 10.7 trillion/IDR 115 trillion (equivalent to USD $10 billion). The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by agreement by both sides. This Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) aims to promote bilateral trade and further strengthen financial cooperation, an objective of mutual interest to both countries.

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Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors decided to hold the BI Rate at a level of 7.25 percent, with rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility held respectively at 7.25 percent and 5.50 percent. Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and further synergise the monetary and macroprudential policy mix in order to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, that rupiah exchange rate stability is maintained according to its fundamentals and the current account deficit is reduced to a sustainable level.

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Although part of the market players on Indonesia's Stock Exchange (IDX) engaged in profit taking after Indonesia's benchmark index (IHSG) climbed for two consecutive days, the index still posted growth of 0.71 percent to 4,418.64 points on Thursday (03/10). Factors that contributed to today's gain were the depreciating US dollar as no solution has been found yet concerning the shutdown, generally rising Asian stock indices and the positive message that is conveyed in the APEC meeting in Bali.

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Despite some appetite for profit taking, the key stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) was able to rise 0.96 percent to 4,387.60 points on Wednesday (02/10). The index was supported by the appreciating rupiah, a few rising Asian stock indices and foreign net stock purchases. The Indonesian rupiah rose against the US dollar as the latter was impacted upon by the debt ceiling and shutdown issue in the USA. Asian stock indices were mixed. Concerns about the shutdown were offset by rising Asian currencies against the US dollar.

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