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Asian stocks and emerging market currencies continue to be under pressure on Thursday morning (28/06) amid uncertainty regarding US authorities' stance on Chinese investment in US tech companies, ongoing concerns over the impact of simmering global trade woes on economic growth, and rising crude oil prices. However, as we approach the lunch break there are some signs of a rebound in Asian markets.
While Asian markets are mixed on Wednesday morning (20/06), Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2 percent (to a four-week low) in the first five minutes after trading resumed after the long Eid al-Fitr holiday. Indeed a lot happened on the global stage since Indonesian markets closed on Friday 8 June 2018 that has not been absorbed by Indonesian assets. Therefore, today it is catch-up day for investors.
In line with expectations the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate - the BI seven-day reverse repo rate - by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in an unscheduled meeting on Wednesday (30/05). In combination with the scheduled monthly policy meeting on 16-17 May 2018, Bank Indonesia raised the benchmark interest rate by a total of 0.50 percent this month.
While most Asian shares are in red territory amid some risk aversion, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is skyrocketing on Thursday (24/05). In the first trading session of the day the benchmark index of Indonesia soared 2.39 percent to 5,930.13 points as foreigners are back to enjoy bargain hunting (before the start of trading today, the Jakarta Composite Index had weakened nearly 9 percent since the year-start).
While most Asian stocks (as well as US and European stock futures) are in green territory on Monday (21/05) on the back of easing concerns about a potential global trade war (led by the US and China), Indonesian assets remain under pressure. Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US-China trade war is "on hold" following both sides' agreement to suspend any tariff threats for now. This has a positive impact on global markets.
In a speech in front of the House of Representatives (DPR) Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the government targets an economic growth rate in the range of 5.4 - 5.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) for 2019. She said this range is a realistic one. Moreover, growth should be inclusive and equal, meaning all people across the nation should see an increase in their welfare. The government will give special focus on the acceleration of growth in eastern Indonesia, border areas, the outermost areas and underdeveloped regions.
Despite the interest rate hike, pressures on the Indonesian assets remained high on Friday (18/05) as the US dollar and US bond yields hold firm near their recent highs. By the end of the trading day the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.70 percent to IDR 14,156 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), touching lows we have not seen since late 2015.
In line with our expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50 percent at the monetary policy meeting in May 2018 that was concluded today (17/05). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, added that the deposit facility and lending facility were raised to 3.75 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively.
Indonesian assets remain under pressure as the US 10-year treasury yield rose to 3.095 percent, touching a near seven-year peak. As a result the US dollar is at a five-month high. While the US dollar rally stalled last week after the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation (April data), the greenback's performance was lifted this week on the back of strong US consumer spending figures. It is having a big impact in Asia.
The Indonesian rupiah and benchmark Jakarta Composite Index are again under pressure on Tuesday (15/05) as the 10-year US treasury yield is again touching 3 percent, while tensions in the Middle East increase and uncertainty about US-China trade relations persist ahead of a meeting between US and Chinese officials in Washington later this week where trade talks resume. Meanwhile, crude oil prices recovered to around USD $71 per barrel, approaching a 3.5 years high, on the back of reduced supply as OPEC reported that the global oil glut has been virtually eliminated.
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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) extended its downward movement on Monday (23/09) as investors continued to look for profits after the index had risen sharply following the announcement that the US quantitative easing program will not be ended yet. Pressures on the IHSG were intensified by the depreciating rupiah and the weakening of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (which was partly brought on by a typhoon). Despite foreign investors being net buyers of Indonesian stocks, the IHSG fell 0.46 percent to 4,562.86 points.
On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).
Contrary to the expectation of most analysts, the Federal Reserve decided to continue its monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, and retained the low interest rate of 0.25 percent. Although coming as a surprise, the news was well-received by the investor community all around the world, who were eager and confident to purchase stocks. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia, IHSG, felt this impact too and rose 4.65 percent to 4,670.73 points.
Market participants are waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which will deal with the future of the quantitative easing program. The wait and see attitude of investors made the benchmark index of Indonesia (IHSG) fall 1.20 percent to 4,463.25 points. Few big cap stocks were able to rise and although some second liners were up, it was not enough to push the IHSG into the green zone. The rupiah continued to weaken and foreign investors were again mostly selling their Indonesian assets.
Investors all around the world are in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision to scale back the monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE3). If indeed scaled back, then another important question remains: how much will the bond-buying program be toned down? Today (18/09), is the last day of the Fed's FOMC meeting in which these decisions are made. The market expects no drastic end to the program, instead a gradual toning down (between USD $10 to $20 billion) is anticipated.
After it was reported that Garuda Indonesia, Indonesia's state-controlled national air carrier, postponed its rights issue, the company stated that it highly doubts an initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary Garuda Maintenance Facility (GMF) AeroAsia on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2013. The reason for this postponement is current lingering uncertainty that plagues emerging markets, including Indonesia, since May 2013. Uncertainty about the future of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program led to a large outflow of foreign funds.
After a strong performance yesterday, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 0.10 percent to 4,517.62 points on Tuesday (17/09). Part of the investor community grabbed their chance to engage in profit taking after yesterday's gain but most investors are careful and reluctant to make any major decision prior to the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (17-18 September). It is expected that after this meeting there will be more clarity about the future of the Fed's quantitative easing program.
Rising indices on Wall Street at the end of last week were a major factor behind rising stock indices in Asia, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), on Monday (16/09). For market players this development was a sign to enter the market. Moreover, expectation has emerged that the Federal Reserve will not take any drastic decisions in the FOMC meeting (on 17-18 September) regarding its quantitative easing program. This expectation has calmed down markets. Indonesia's IHSG rose 3.35 percent to 4,522.54 points.
Last week, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) climbed 7.3 percent to end at 4,375.53 on Friday (13/09). This growth is remarkable as it remains unknown what the Federal Reserve will do with its quantitative easing program (QE3). The next Fed meeting - scheduled for 17-18 September - is expected to provide more clarity regarding this matter. Positive sentiments that lifted the IHSG were Indonesia's slightly increased foreign exchange reserves, its stable rupiah after another BI rate hike, and the Bilateral Swap Deals (BSA) with Japan and China.
Despite concerns that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) would weaken on Thursday's trading day (12/09), the index ended 0.17 percent up to 4,356.61 points. Indices on Wall Street and in Asia impacted positively on the IHSG and kept foreign investors increasing their stock portfolios in Indonesia. Moreover, the Bank Indonesia's decision to raise the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent was generally well-received by investors. Banking stocks helped to support the IHSG.
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