Over the past couple of trading days Indonesian stocks and the rupiah have been under pressure due to increasing speculation about a sooner-than-expected Fed Funds Rate hike in the USA. These pressures have caused some volatile behavior in the performance of emerging market stocks and currencies. Today, however, most Asian stocks moved higher with the notable exception of Japanese shares that were plagued by the release of weak April trade data. Meanwhile, the G-7 meeting last weekend failed to result in an agreement on a plan to revive global growth.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) are under pressure on Thursday (19/05) as renewed speculation about a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the USA puts severe pressure on emerging market assets, while the US dollar is appreciating sharply. Based on the minutes of the 26-27 April Federal Reserve meeting, more and more analysts believe that another Fed Fund Rate hike could come as early as June 2016.

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Turnover in Indonesia's food and beverage sector reached IDR 400 trillion (approx. USD $30.3 billion) in the first quarter of 2016, up 7.55 percent from the same period one year earlier. Adhi Lukman, Chairman of the Indonesian Food and Beverage Association (GAPMMI), is content to see the growth pace, particularly because it is supported by rising sales volumes. In Q1-2015 the growth pace in Indonesia's food and beverage industry was higher (at +8.16 percent y/y) but this growth was more supported by higher prices rather than rising sales volumes.

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Most Asian stocks are in the red zone on Monday (09/05) and Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is leading declines. At the end of the first trading session Indonesian shares were down 1.15 percent at 4,767.32 points. Important issues that influence the performance of Asian stock markets are China's April trade data and US April jobs data. Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to rally and the yen finally weakened against the US dollar (hence supporting Japanese stocks).

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Indonesian cosmetic companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange have not yet seen earnings gain momentum in the first quarter of 2016. Martina Berto is the only listed cosmetic producer that managed to post rising net sales and net profit in Q1-2016. Meanwhile, the two other cosmetic firms - Mustika Ratu and Mandom Indonesia - saw their net sales decline in the same period due to weak purchasing power and household consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Moreover, cosmetic firms have been offering discounts in order to raise sales volumes.

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Ahead of central bank meetings in the USA and Japan, and amid a volatile performance of crude oil prices the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 1.33 percent to 4,814.09 points on Tuesday (26/04), leading losses among Asian indices. The Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting, scheduled to start today, is making investors cautious as this meeting may give some clues about the possibility of a June Fed Fund Rate hike. Overall, the performance of Asian stock markets was rather mixed on Tuesday. This performance was also attributed to weak cues from Wall Street and Europe overnight.

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Asian stocks did not have a good start of the week. Most Asian stocks fell on Monday (25/04) in line with retreating oil prices, concerns that the US Federal Reserve may be hinting at further monetary tightening in its upcoming policy meeting, as well as concerns about China's debt and commodities markets. It all resulted in curbed demand for higher-yielding yet riskier Asian assets. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.73 percent to 4,878.86 points, while the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.04 percent to IDR 13,199 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 6.75 percent at the April policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations. During the three policy meetings conducted in the January-March 2016 period Bank Indonesia had already cut its BI rate by a combined 75 basis points as inflation and the current account deficit are under control, while the Indonesian rupiah has been strengthening against the US dollar since the start of 2016. Last week, Bank Indonesia announced it will adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) to replace the existing BI rate as the bank's key monetary tool.

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Stock markets in Asia are plagued by the failure to see an 'oil freeze deal' reached at OPEC's oil talks in Doha over the weekend. Saudi Arabia announced it will not curtail its oil production as long as other oil producing countries do not curtail production as well. It specifically wants its geopolitical rival Iran to join the production freeze. However, Iran decided not to join the meeting and ruled out any output cuts after recently rejoining the international oil market (due to the lifting of sanctions). Iran indicated it is not cut any output before its oil production reaches the pre-sanction level.

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Stocks in Asia were mostly up on Tuesday (12/04) supported by the weaker Japanese yen (retreating after a seven-day rally again the US dollar) and rising commodity prices (with crude oil touching a 2016 high at USD $43 per barrel after the US dollar weakened). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.89 percent to 4,829.57 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.14 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Several analysts claim that the positive performance of Indonesian assets was also due to the government's plan to cut the corporate income tax to 20 percent and raise the non-taxable personal income tax by 50 percent.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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For the second day in a row Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to post a gain. Today, it rose 1.92 percent to 4,103.59 points. This rebound is possibly the result of the higher key interest rate. Yesterday, it was announced that the central bank (Bank Indonesia) scheduled an extra meeting to discuss monetary policy. Immediately speculation emerged that the BI rate might be raised by 50 basis points. And indeed it was raised, much to the liking of many investors and analysts.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Most of us who were hoping for a limited weakening of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) today (27/08) were to be disappointed. Instead of a limited decline, the IHSG fell 3.71 percent to 3,967.84 points. Market participants are concerned about both the global and domestic economy, thus pulling money out from Indonesia. The weakening rupiah and weak stock index openings in Europe (due to tensions in Syria) pushed the IHSG further down into red territory. Foreign investors were again net sellers of Indonesian assets.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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After market participants had time in the weekend to think over the 'rescue packages' of the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) that were released on Friday (23/08), they seemed unconvinced about the short-term impact of the packages. As a result, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 1.18 percent to 4,120.67 points on Monday (26/08), which is the IHSG's lowest level since 7 September 2012. The Indonesian rupiah gained 0.06 percent to IDR 10,841 (Bank Indonesia's mid rate).

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Despite the announcement of an economic policy package aimed at overcoming the impact of global financial turmoil, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to end the week on a positive note, while the value of the rupiah on the spot market depreciated 1.68 percent to IDR 11,058 per US dollar on Friday (23/08) amid a majority of strengthening Asian currencies, including the Indian rupee (0.67 percent) and the Thai baht (0.28 percent). Based on Bank Indonesia's mid rate, the rupiah fell 4.4 percent against the US dollar to IDR 10,848 last week.

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Similar to the Indonesian government, Indonesia's central bank also announced a fiscal policy package to support sustainable nationwide economic growth by curbing inflation, maintaining a more sustainable balance of payments as well as strengthening financial system stability. These additional policies are expected to synergise with the policy package unveiled by the government on Friday (23/08). These measures were taken as both the rupiah and Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) are in a downward spiral.

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The rebound that happened in the first session of Friday's trading day (23/08) gave hope that Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) would end the disastrous week on a positive note. However, in the second session of the day market participants began selling Indonesian assets causing the index to fall again, although the fall was limited. In line with the Asian region, the index lost 0.04 percent to end at 4,169.83 points. Even the highly anticipated 'rescue package' of the Indonesian government was not able to support the index.

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