Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects headline inflation to reach 2.79 percent (y/y) in full-year 2015, below the central bank's target range of between 3 and 5 percent. Inflation has been low in Indonesia this year, accumulating to 2.16 percent in the first ten months of 2015, and Bank Indonesia estimates that the pace of inflation will remain controlled in the last two months of 2015.

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Indonesian assets produced a strong finish on Friday (20/11). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah both strengthened considerably on increased certainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, while China announced it implemented more measures to encourage economic growth, giving rise to a stronger yuan (supporting stronger emerging currencies in Asia). Indonesian stocks rose 0.94 percent to 4,561.33 points, while the rupiah appreciated 1.10 percent to IDR 13,623 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Total outstanding foreign debt of Indonesia fell to USD $302.4 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2015, down USD $2.1 billion from the end of the preceding quarter. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said both public and private external debt declined in Q3-2015 as both sectors were reluctant to take up new (overseas) debt amid global uncertainties, Indonesia's sluggish economic growth, and the fragile rupiah (ahead of looming capital outflows brought about by higher US interest rates).

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Stock indices in Asia were mixed on Wednesday (18/11), while most emerging market currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Indonesian rupiah was under pressure - touching a six week low - after the central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut the primary minimum statutory reserves from 8.00 percent to 7.50 percent (effective per 1 December 2015), hence providing local financial institutions approximately USD $1.8 billion more in liquidity. However, it may not be enough to trigger an increase in lending as banks are more focused on lending quality than quantity.

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In line with other Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded sharply on Tuesday (17/11), boosted by the performance on Wall Street overnight where the major indices rose more than one percent. Positive sentiments are caused by a big jump in oil prices, while worries about the negative impact of the terrorist attack in Paris proved unfounded. By 11:55 am local Jakarta time, the Jakarta Composite Index was up 1.59 percent to 4,512.64 points. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 0.12 percent to IDR 13,732 per US dollar by the same time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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On the first trading day after the terrorist attacks in Paris (leaving 129 people dead and hundreds injured), stocks declined in Asia as investors are cautious. Although markets had one weekend to digest the news, it is still expected that the tragedy in Paris will cause a sharp yet short-term impact on global equity markets. Apart from terrorism, volatile oil prices as well as concern about China's economy and uncertainty about the timing of a US interest rate hike continue to plague markets.

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Across the world, stock indices plunged on persistent concern about lower commodity prices (especially as crude oil dived to a two-month low and may start to flirt with the USD $40 per barrel level again), concern about slowing credit growth in China, while markets are also bracing for a possible US interest rate hike in December (a move that will particularly trigger capital outflows from riskier emerging market assets). This month markets are under severe selling pressure after experiencing a rally in October.

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Asian shares are facing pressures on Friday (13/11) due to lower oil prices and increasing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points in December. Resource stocks are dragging down stock indices in Australia, Hong Kong and China by more than one percent. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, however, is bucking the trend in Asia, having risen 0.51 percent to 4,485.12 points by 10:20 am local Jakarta time amid red indices in Asia. Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening against Asian currencies but not as sharply as initially predicted.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rebounded on Tuesday (03/09) amid rising Asian stock indices inflicted by optimism about economic recovery in China and the USA. The IHSG rose 1.53 percent to 4,164.12 points. Agribusiness and mining stocks were the top performers today, while the miscellaneous industry, which fell 0.09 percent, was the only sectoral index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) that was down. The rupiah depreciated against the US dollar as investors are concerned about July's USD $2.3 billion current account deficit.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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Last week Friday (30/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) ended 2.23 percent up to the level of 4,195.09 points, continuing its three-day 'winning streak'. Underlying reasons being the central bank's new policy package (that was released as a response towards the negative impact of global turmoil on Indonesia's financial stability) and the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate). The BI rate was raised 50 basis points on Thursday (29/08) to 7.0 percent to stabilize the weakening rupiah that fell to IDR 11,000 per US dollar.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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For the second day in a row Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to post a gain. Today, it rose 1.92 percent to 4,103.59 points. This rebound is possibly the result of the higher key interest rate. Yesterday, it was announced that the central bank (Bank Indonesia) scheduled an extra meeting to discuss monetary policy. Immediately speculation emerged that the BI rate might be raised by 50 basis points. And indeed it was raised, much to the liking of many investors and analysts.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Most of us who were hoping for a limited weakening of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) today (27/08) were to be disappointed. Instead of a limited decline, the IHSG fell 3.71 percent to 3,967.84 points. Market participants are concerned about both the global and domestic economy, thus pulling money out from Indonesia. The weakening rupiah and weak stock index openings in Europe (due to tensions in Syria) pushed the IHSG further down into red territory. Foreign investors were again net sellers of Indonesian assets.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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