The economy of Indonesia, which has been slowing since 2011, will have difficulty to rebound in 2015 as the central bank’s key interest rate (BI rate) is expected to be raised again to avert capital outflows brought on by higher interest rates in the US and to combat accelerated inflation after domestic subsidized fuel prices have been raised by the new government led by president-elect Joko Widodo (Jokowi). After a GDP growth pace of 6.5 percent (y/y) in 2011, economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy fell to 5.8 percent (y/y) in 2013.

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The most controversial and heatedly debated news story from Indonesia in the past week was parliament’s approval of a new bill that puts an end to direct voting in the regions. This means that it are not the people but instead the regional legislatures that will elect mayors, district heads and governors. Critics say this is a major setback for the democracy process of Indonesia and will make local elections prone to corruption, collusion and nepotism as Indonesia’s legislatures - both at the national and regional level - are believed to be corrupted to a high degree.

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Indonesian stocks and rupiah exchange rate weakened considerably on Friday (26/09) after Indonesian parliament approved a new bill that puts an end to direct local elections. Moreover, market sentiments were negative after stocks on Wall Street plunged on Thursday because of increasing concern about the global economy as well as consumers’ problems with Apple's latest software updates and new product launches (iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus) resulting in a 3.8 percent slide of Apple shares.

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A new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says that the Indonesian economy is expected to slow on weak export performance in 2014 before picking up in 2015 as external demand improves and the new government’s reform agenda takes hold. In an update of its Asian Development Outlook 2014, the ADB trimmed its forecast for 2014 growth in Indonesian gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.3 percent from 5.7 percent expected in April. The ADB expects a growth pace of 5.8 percent in 2015, down from 6.0 percent in April.

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Low cost carrier Indonesia AirAsia, the Indonesian unit of Malaysia's AirAsia, carried 4.08 million air passengers in the first half of 2014, a growth of 12 percent from the same period last year (3.64 million passengers). However, this growth figure failed to achieve the company’s initial target as it had to reduce flights and routes in an effort to cut back on expenses amid high operational costs. Although the firm managed to pass on part of expensive fuel costs to passengers (fuel surcharge), operational costs for specific routes are high.

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 1.26 percent to IDR 11,971 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (15/09). Indonesia’s currency depreciated sharply ahead of the FOMC’s two-day meeting as investors are awaiting for the results on Thursday. As August US retail sales rose at the fastest pace in four months, a winding down of the US bond-buying program and looming US interest rates have resulted in a strong US dollar.

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On 14 September 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such Indonesia’s fuel subsidies, economic growth in 2015, monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, the Anas Urbaningrum corruption case, emerging Indonesian companies on a global scale, and more.

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Indonesia has jumped four places in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2014-2015. In the latest edition Southeast Asia’s largest economy is ranked 34th (from 38th in last year’s edition of the index). Since the 2012-2013 edition, when Indonesia was ranked 50th, the country has risen steadily. The Global Competitiveness Index measures the institutions, policies, as well as factors that set the sustainable current and medium-term levels of economic prosperity among 144 countries around the world.

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Newly elected presidential pair Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and running mate Jusuf Kalla, the pair that will guide Indonesia for the next five years starting from October 2014, propose to raise the target for economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy from 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent in 2015. Furthermore, the pair would like to set a stronger average rupiah rate at IDR 11,600 per US dollar over 2015 (from IDR 11,900 as set in the Revised 2015 State Budget). Several reasons are behind these ambitious targets.

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On 17 August 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the performance of the rupiah exchange rate, plantations, Freeport Indonesia, economic growth, electricity, property, guidelines for the construction of a PT PMA, and more.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rebounded on Tuesday (03/09) amid rising Asian stock indices inflicted by optimism about economic recovery in China and the USA. The IHSG rose 1.53 percent to 4,164.12 points. Agribusiness and mining stocks were the top performers today, while the miscellaneous industry, which fell 0.09 percent, was the only sectoral index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) that was down. The rupiah depreciated against the US dollar as investors are concerned about July's USD $2.3 billion current account deficit.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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Last week Friday (30/08), Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) ended 2.23 percent up to the level of 4,195.09 points, continuing its three-day 'winning streak'. Underlying reasons being the central bank's new policy package (that was released as a response towards the negative impact of global turmoil on Indonesia's financial stability) and the higher benchmark interest rate (BI rate). The BI rate was raised 50 basis points on Thursday (29/08) to 7.0 percent to stabilize the weakening rupiah that fell to IDR 11,000 per US dollar.

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The decision of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00 percent and its deposit facility (Fasbi) by 0.50 percent to 5.25 percent seem to have had a good impact on the value of Indonesia's stocks and the rupiah. Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) rose 2.23 percent to 4,195.09 points on Friday (30/08), implying a three-day winning streak. Since the first trading day of this year, the IHSG is down 3.47 percent.

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For the second day in a row Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was able to post a gain. Today, it rose 1.92 percent to 4,103.59 points. This rebound is possibly the result of the higher key interest rate. Yesterday, it was announced that the central bank (Bank Indonesia) scheduled an extra meeting to discuss monetary policy. Immediately speculation emerged that the BI rate might be raised by 50 basis points. And indeed it was raised, much to the liking of many investors and analysts.

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The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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Although Indonesia is one of the victims of the reversal of investment flows from emerging markets to developed markets, it is still far from a crisis. Global uncertainty regarding the possible ending of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program (QE3) and, to a lesser extent, the possible invasion of the US in Syria have worried investors and resulted in the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Funds are flowing back to western developed countries that have recently been showing signs of continued economic recovery.

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Most of us who were hoping for a limited weakening of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) today (27/08) were to be disappointed. Instead of a limited decline, the IHSG fell 3.71 percent to 3,967.84 points. Market participants are concerned about both the global and domestic economy, thus pulling money out from Indonesia. The weakening rupiah and weak stock index openings in Europe (due to tensions in Syria) pushed the IHSG further down into red territory. Foreign investors were again net sellers of Indonesian assets.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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