The latest survey of Bank Indonesia shows that consumer confidence in Indonesia has fallen in June 2015 on fears of shrinking job availability as well as declining income and business activity. Last month, the central bank’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.5 points to 111.3. This year so far, Indonesian consumer confidence only rose in May. In other months the index fell. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index is based on samples of 4,600 households in 18 major cities in Indonesia (100 separates optimism from pessimism).

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On 1 July 2015, Bank Indonesia’s BI Regulation No. 17/3/PBI/2015 regarding the Mandatory Use of the Rupiah in Indonesia came into effect. This BI Regulation, signed on 31 March 2015, restricts the use of foreign currencies in transactions conducted in Indonesia with the aim to deepen the domestic rupiah market, stabilize the rupiah (which has been depreciating against the US dollar), and foster economic expansion. A previous law (Law No. 7/2011) allowed for involved contract parties to agree using another currency (than the rupiah) for payments.

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Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist at the Standard Chartered Bank, expects Indonesia’s rupiah to have depreciated to IDR 13,900 per US dollar by the end of the year from IDR 13,339 currently (29/06) due to the impact of the bullish US dollar ahead of monetary tightening in the USA and the looming Greek exit from the Eurozone. Actually, this is a conservative prognosis. In case Indonesia’s central bank does not raise its benchmark interest rate (BI rate), currently at 7.50 percent, pressures on the rupiah may increase in fact increase further.

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Although Indonesia is considered as one of the Asian economies that is particularly vulnerable to a Greek exit from the euro (‘Grexit’), Indonesian stocks and the rupiah did not decline as heavily as other emerging market assets on Monday’s trading day (29/06), the first trading day after the collapse of talks between debt-ridden Greece and its international creditors. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.82 percent to 4,882.59 points while the rupiah depreciated 0.24 percent to IDR 13,339 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Indonesian stocks are expected to feel heavy downward pressure on Monday (29/06) due to stalled talks between debt-ridden Greece and its international creditors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) still needs to open but other Asian markets immediately plunged after opening. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.28 percent as the yen appreciates (investors are chasing safe haven assets), while South Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the euro is depreciating heavily in Asian trading.

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Most stock indices across the world continued to fall on Friday (26/06) on heightened concern that debt-ridden Greece will fail to reach an agreement with its international creditors. The deal is necessary for Greece to obtain bailout funds in order to avoid a default on its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due on 30 June 2015. A default could mean a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone and jeopardizes stability of the whole financial system of the region. Talks between both sides will continue into the weekend.

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As Greece and its international creditors have failed to reach an agreement (yet) regarding the disbursement of crucial bailout funds for the debt payment of debt-ridden Greece to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) later this month, most Asian stocks fell on Thursday (25/06) in cautious trading. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to 4,920.04 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.20 percent to IDR 13,328 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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On Tuesday (23/06) Asian stock indices extended gains on optimism that debt-ridden Greece will not default and stays within the Eurozone. Although Eurozone leaders reminded that there is still work to be done before an agreement can be reached between Greece and its creditors, markets are confident that the deal is only a matter of time. However, similar to yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index did not follow this global positivity and instead declined 0.44 percent to 4,937.65 points.

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Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Indonesian stocks rebounded on Tuesday (16/06). The country’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.72 percent to 4,872.60 points supported by foreign net buying and rebounding from yesterday’s 13-month low position. Middle and longer term investors now have great opportunity to find stocks at bargain prices (particularly those stocks that are not too exposed to the weakening rupiah). However, trading volume was low at about 60 percent of the past 30-day average thus indicating that market participants remain wary.

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Analysts expect that Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) will end mixed today (20/08) after yesterday's large plunge amid heavy market concerns. Yesterday, the index dropped 5.58 percent to 4,313.52 points, the lowest since October 2011. Indonesia posted a current account deficit in the second quarter of 2013, while Thailand entered into a recession. The MSCI Emerging Market index¹, which includes both countries, fell 1.4 percent to a six-week low. Below a short overview of factors that caused negative sentiments on Indonesia's market.

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After two days of growth, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) became victim of profit taking on Thursday (15/08). Particularly domestic investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets. Falling indices on Wall Street on Wednesday (14/08) in combination with global uncertainty about the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program made a negative impact on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG. Indonesia's central bank's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% was well-received by most investors.

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

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After Wall Street turned back into the green zone on Tuesday (13/08) and was accompanied by continued rising stock indices in Europe, it provided good support for Asian stock indices on Wednesday (14/08), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Indonesian mining commodities and plantation stocks fell but these losses were offset by rising big cap stocks (particularly finance stocks) and speculation that Indonesia's central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 6.50 percent.

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Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2013 was significantly higher than analysts had previously estimated. The country’s July inflation figure accelerated to 3.29 percent. On year-on-year basis, it now stands at 8.61 percent, the highest inflation rate since many years. Particularly food commodity and transportation prices rose steeply. The main reason for Indonesia's high inflation is the reduction in fuel subsidies. In late June, the government increased the prices of subsidized fuels in order to relieve the ballooning budget deficit.

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As I stated before, mixed sentiments continue to influence the performance of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). During Thursday's trading day (01/08), the index moved sideways. News that the Federal Reserve intends to continue its bond-buying program made a good impact. However, this positive sentiment was offset by the release of Indonesia's high July inflation rate as well as the country's continued trade deficit. At the end of the day, the IHSG managed to post a gain as it received support from rising stock indices in Asia.

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Despite being up at the start of the trading day, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was under pressure for the remainder of Wednesday (31/07) due to investors' appetite for profit taking. Indonesian company reports (Semester I-2013) were mixed and, in combination with other mixed Asian indices, it made many investors wait and see for the meeting of the Federal Reserve first. Asian indices suffered because of Malaysia's and India's downgrade by Fitch Ratings. This triggered speculation whether Indonesia's outlook will be cut as well.

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Last week (22-26 July 2013), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) ended 1.39 percent down at 4,658.87. The daily value of transactions on the regular market narrowed to an average of IDR 3 trillion (USD $300 million) from IDR 3.84 trillion in the previous week. Foreigners still recorded net sales amounting to IDR 92.9 billion (USD $9.3 million). Lack of positive sentiments, financial results of companies that were below expectation and the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar resulted in the decline of the index.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) continued its weakening trend this week. The index fell 0.93 percent to 4,674.12 on Thursday (25/07). This downward movement today was in line with most other Asian stock indices. All sectoral indices of the IHSG weakened, except for the miscellaneous industry. Indonesian blue chips, in particular, were under pressure. Unilever Indonesia fell 3.38 percent and Bank Mandiri lost 3.37 percent. Trade was relatively quiet with value of transactions at IDR 4.5 trillion (USD $441.2 million).

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