Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), set by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, fell 1.69 percent (m/m) to USD $53.51 per metric ton (FOB) in December 2015, touching a new all-time record low since the this reference price was started in January 2009. Supriatna Suhala, Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said the low coal price is caused by the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth.

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Despite winter having arrived, global oil prices are still declining. Today (21/12), Brent crude prices plunged to the lowest level since 2004 on persistent concern about a global supply glut as the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil supplies rose 4.8 million barrels to 490.7 million in the second week of December, while the OPEC's production rate stood at 31.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2015. Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to fall in 2016. For example, oil consumption in the USA is projected to fall to 1.2 million bpd next year, from 1.8 bpd in 2015.

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Indonesia will most likely abandon its plans to establish four nuclear plants (with a combined capacity of 6 GW) by 2025. Sudirman Said, Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, recently said there are plenty of alternatives - especially renewable energy - in Indonesia to meet the government's target of 136.7 GW of power capacity by 2025 and 430 GW by the year 2050. Nuclear power is controversial due to health risks, environmental damage and nuclear proliferation (when used as a weapon). The nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 highlighted the risks of tapping nuclear power.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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Indonesia will fail to achieve its coal production target of 425 million tons in 2015 as the country's coal miners have cut production by an estimated 20 percent. Domestic coal mining firms have cut coal output due to persistent low coal prices resulting in a negative free cash flow for many miners. Global coal prices have declined due to a supply glut and weaker global demand amid sluggish economic growth.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Indonesian coal exports are expected to fall below 300 million tons in 2016 as domestic miners are cutting coal production volumes due to low coal prices. Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (set by the government) fell 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) and now stands at an all-time record low since the start of this reference price in January 2009. Meanwhile, global benchmark coal prices are nearly touching nine-year lows.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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Harum Energy, one of Indonesia’s leading coal mining companies, aims to take advantage of the current weak state of the mining sector by acquiring other coal companies. President Director Ray Antonio Gunara said that Harum Energy, which is part of the Tanito Harum Group, set aside USD $390 million (USD $190 million from internal cash reserves and USD $200 million through a loan) to purchase other coal miners.

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Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the September coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.

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Mining in Indonesia includes a part or all stages of coal and mineral exploration and exploitation. Minerals are defined by law number 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (“Mining Law”) as inorganic compounds which possess specific characteristics and compositions in the form of ores. Coal is defined as sediment of organic carbon which is naturally formed from plants. Mining in Indonesia does not include any activities related to exploration and exploitation of geothermal, oil and gas and ground water.

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Global copper prices can come under pressure as Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) has started to export copper concentrate again this week after a nine-month hiatus caused by the dispute between the Indonesian government and NNT about Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (the “New Mining Law” of Indonesia), which sets high export taxes on unprocessed mineral exports (and stipulates a complete ban by 2017), in an effort to force Indonesian miners to build local processing facilities.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG - rose 0.17 percent to 4,921.39 points on Tuesday (13/05), impacted by investors' reaction to positive earnings reports of Indonesian coal miners in the first quarter of 2014. Today, foreign investors recorded net buying of IDR 64 billion (USD $5.6 million) and accounted for 31 percent of trading activity. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014 and wait for more clarity about the (vice) presidential candidates that will compete.

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Production of coalbed methane (CBM) in Indonesia will most likely not meet the government's target of 500 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in 2015. Coalbed methane, an environmental friendly fuel, is a form of natural gas that occurs in coal beds. Although the production of CBM is a complementary aspect of coal mining, it has only started to gain attention in recent years. CBM reserves in Indonesia, estimated at 453 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are among the world's largest CBM reserves (6 percent of total global CBM reserves).

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.

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