In the past week, commotion occurred in Indonesia related to the presidential election (which is scheduled for 9 July 2014). This commotion, which involved two 2001 interviews by award-winning American journalist Allan Nairn, a Nazi video, and US ambassador Robert O. Blake Jr, was related to controversial presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, former army general and former son-in-law to Indonesia’s second president Suharto. The 2014 election has become a tight race between Subianto and market favourite Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.

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On Sunday evening (22/06), the third debate between the two presidential candidates of Indonesia - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - took place and was broadcast live on national television by various stations. Through these debates the presidential candidates are able to outline their vision while trying to increase their popularity among the Indonesian electorate (on 9 July 2014 the Indonesian people will vote for their new leader). The theme of this third debate was ‘international politics and national security’.

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A survey of the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, showed that the foreign business community will not be content if Prabowo Subianto takes over the presidential seat from incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. According to this survey, 56 percent of respondents are planning to sell Indonesian assets if the electorate chooses Subianto as next president in the election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. About 13 percent answered to buy Indonesian assets in the same scenario.

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On Monday evening (09/06), the first debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates (joined by their running mates) was held and broadcast live on national television by various Indonesian television stations. This debate is the first in a series of five debates in which both teams - Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Jusuf Kalla vs Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa - are able to share their vision and mission to the Indonesian electorate. The debate immediately became a trending topic on social media.

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The political turmoil that has been plaguing Thailand since 2006 can become an advantage for Indonesia if the country manages to attract investors that were previously engaged in business or exploring business activities in Thailand. Although Indonesian politics are characterized by a certain level of uncertainty as well, particularly ahead of the upcoming July presidential election, the political situation is much more under control in Indonesia. Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are Indonesia's greatest economic rivals in Southeast Asia.

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With the presidential election of Indonesia (scheduled for 9 July) becoming a battle between Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, and former army general and Suharto crony Prabowo Subianto, it is worth taking a closer look into the ideas and policies that both candidates would like to implement if elected as the next Indonesian president, as well as their stance on specific economic issues. The viewpoints that are mentioned below are based on the documents that both parties provided to the General Election Commission.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and the country's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) have strengthened significantly on Wednesday's trading day (14/05). The rupiah appreciated 0.76 percent to IDR 11,450 per US dollar by 15:00 local Jakarta time according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the IHSG gained 1.09 percent to 4,975.13 by the same time. Main reason for this strong performance is the official declaration of the PDI-P to form a coalition with NasDem and PKB.

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The Indonesian presidential election, scheduled for 9 July 2014, is most likely to become a battle between Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. Although this had already been expected as both men can rely on popular support (according to various surveys) and have the political backing of important political parties, a number of developments on Tuesday (13/05) seem to confirm this expectation. Moreover, there is more clarity about the vice-presidential candidates that will join the July election.

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In Indonesian media it was reported today (13/05) that Hatta Rajasa, the current Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, will meet President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono this afternoon. It is speculated that in this meeting Rajasa wil ask permission to resign from his post in order to be able to run as Prabowo Subianto's running mate in the presidential election (9 July 2014). A 2008 law stipulates that ministers need to resign when participating in the election (as presidential or vice-presidential candidate) to avert a possible conflict of interest.

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Only minutes ahead of the deadline on Friday (09/05), the General Election Commission (KPU) released the official results of Indonesia’s 2014 legislative election. As had been expected, the official result is highly similar to the quick count results that had been published on the day of election (09/04). The current main opposition party the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) won the election, securing 18.95 percent of the vote, followed by Golkar (14.75 percent) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) with 11.81 percent.

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It was a very exciting afternoon and evening on Friday (09 August 2018), especially for those who follow contemporary Indonesian politics as well as those who love sinetron (Indonesian soap operas) since there occurred plenty of drama. At the end of the day it became clear that two pairs (consisting of a presidential and vice-presidential candidate) will compete in the 2019 presidential election: (1) Joko Widodo and Ma'ruf Amin versus (2) Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno.

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There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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Chief executive officers (CEOs) in Indonesia have become slightly less optimistic about the Indonesian economy and politics. This makes sense considering the presence of simmering global trade tensions, sharp rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, and Bank Indonesia's recent series of interest rate hikes.

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The local elections that are held tomorrow (Wednesday 27 June 2018) are regarded a run-up to Indonesia's 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Tomorrow's results are a barometer to measure the political mood in the country with regard to next year's elections. After all, residents in the nation's four most populous provinces - West Java, East Java, Central Java, and North Sumatra - will visit the ballot boxes to vote for new governors. In total, 17 governors, 39 mayors and 115 regents will be elected across Indonesia on Wednesday.

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This week two domestic events need to be carefully watched by those who invest in Indonesian assets: (1) the local elections that are scheduled for Wednesday 27 June, and (2) Bank Indonesia's monthly policy meeting that is scheduled for 27-18 June. Lets take a closer look at these events.

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The issue of foreign workers has been the topic of much debate in Indonesian media in recent weeks. Ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections political opponents of Indonesian President Joko Widodo are seemingly using this topic to gain popularity and to incite criticism on the government, or even to incite anxiety in society. Lets take a closer look at what it is about and whether criticism or anxiety is grounded or that we are simply dealing with another hoax.

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Indonesia's 2019 presidential election is likely to become another battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Gerindra party Chairman Prabowo Subianto. Both men had already been engaged in a fierce contest in 2014, one that was only narrowly won by Jokowi. On Wednesday evening (11/04) Subianto formally accepted the mandate of the Gerindra party to compete as presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election (scheduled for 17 April 2019).

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Consumer goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are expected to experience two good years in 2018 and 2019 due to the presence of the "political years" (regional elections in 2018 followed by legislative and presidential elections in 2019). Traditionally, consumption rises amid these "parties of democracy" and therefore those consumer goods companies with strong brands are expected to see rising sales in this period.

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It was a solid year for the Indonesian economy. The macroeconomic fundamentals of the nation have strengthened due to the hard work of the Indonesian government under the leadership of President Joko Widodo. However, there is no room for complacency as there remain major bottlenecks, while legislative and presidential elections - in which voters can approve or disapprove Widodo's performance - are scheduled for 2019.

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Investors will need to keep an eye on Indonesia's political years of 2018 (regional elections) and 2019 (legislative elections) as the outcomes can have a big impact on the investment climate and business climate of Indonesia. Most eyes will be on the legislative and presidential elections of 2019.

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