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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah started strong on Wednesday (09/09). Immediately after opening the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose over one percent to 4,366 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 14,244 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) as these assets were supported by positive global sentiments after there had occurred a rally in most global equity markets on Tuesday (08/09).
Most Asian stock markets finished lower on Monday (07/09) on persistent concern about the hard landing of China’s economy and the (related) selloff on European and US markets that occurred at the end of last week. Meanwhile, most Asian currencies depreciated (against the US dollar) after a US jobs report (released last Friday) could make the Federal Reserve decide to raise short-term interest rates later this month. All in all, investor sentiment remains fragile.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah had a bad start on Monday morning. By 09.35 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 0.99 percent to 4,371.49 points, while the rupiah had depreciated by 0.45 percent to IDR 14,236 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are slightly down on Friday afternoon (04/09). Similar to yesterday it is a relatively quiet trading today (possibly caused by closed markets in Shanghai hence curtailing the spread of severe volatility). By 15:20 pm local Jakarta time the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 0.48 percent to 4,411.99 points while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 14,180 per US dollar (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index).
Indonesia has cancelled further development of the multi-billion high-speed railway between the capital city of Jakarta and Bandung (West Java) as President Joko Widodo decided that Indonesia does not need a train that can reach speeds of over 300 km per hour on the relatively short route (150 km) between both cities. Besides the short distance, there will also be around 14 stations constructed between both terminal stations, implying that the train needs to hit the brakes before it can reach its maximum speed.
Global markets are again facing rough times after China’s manufacturing activity fell to a three-year low in July 2015, yet another sign that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing faster than earlier estimated (and this surely impacts negatively on the global economy). Concerns about China led to plunging stock indices from Japan to New York on Tuesday (01/09). Moreover, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who is on a visit in Indonesia, said the IMF may soon cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2015 again (from 3.3 percent currently).
In line with nearly all other Asian stock markets, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) plunged 2.15 percent to 4,412.46 points on Tuesday (01/09). After Asian trade had closed European and US indices also plummeted severely. The main reason is today’s announcement that China’s manufacturing fell to a three-year low in August 2015, yet another sign that China’s economic growth is declining faster than estimated. The country’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in August from 50.0 in July (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction).
According to the latest rumours, the government of Indonesia tends to favour China to build the nation's first high-speed railway that will connect the capital city of Jakarta and Bandung in West Java. Over the past weeks, the ‘battle’ between China and Japan over who will be awarded the contract to construct the high-speed and high-profile railway between both cities (worth approx. USD $5 billion) heightened.
Most Asian stock markets are strengthening on Friday after indices on Wall Street rose yesterday on strong US economic growth. The US economy grew 3.7 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 (much higher than the 2.3 percent estimated previously). As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.27 percent while global oil prices rebounded over 10 percent on Thursday (27/08).
In line with major stock indices in Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded directly after the opening of trade on Thursday (27/08). The index surged 2.51 percent to 4,344.11 points. Most indices in Asia were up after the US Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed nearly 4 percent on Wednesday (26/08), effectively ending a six-day losing streak, on heightened expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise its key Fed Fund Rate yet in September. However, markets are still plagued by severe volatility.
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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.
Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.
During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.
For most of this year, the financial media has held a generally positive tone. There have been some exceptions in cases like the Eurozone which is still mired in a deeply divided sovereign debt crisis. But for most of the world, 2015 has been a positive period in terms of general growth in their broad trends. So it might be easy for macro investors to assume that most markets are currently establishing themselves in the bullish direction.
In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.
Indonesia is the eight-largest shareholder within the newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The Indonesian Finance Ministry announced earlier this week that the country will invest USD $672.1 million in the AIIB over the next five years. The AIIB is a new multilateral financial institution (initiated by China) that is to provide funds for infrastructure development projects in the Asia Pacific region. Initially, the AIIB has an authorized capital of USD $50 billion. This is expected to grow to USD $100 billion.
In line with other Asian indices, Indonesian stocks rose on Tuesday (26/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.62 percent to 5,320.90 points. Positive sentiments did not originate from the USA as US stock markets were closed for a holiday yesterday but primarily stemmed from China where the economic planning agency announced to implement several new policies in a bid to boost the sluggish economy. The rupiah, however, depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 13,220 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.
At the start of 2014 Indonesia introduced its long-planned export ban on raw mineral ores in a bid to strengthen the domestic economy by reducing its dependence on raw commodity exports and instead forcing miners to process their raw ores domestically before exporting is allowed. Being an important global supplier of certain ores, this new Indonesian rule (stipulated by Law No.4/2009 on Coal and Mineral Mining) has a considerable impact on global markets and prices, one of which being nickel.
Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.
On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).
