The upstream oil and gas industry of Indonesia is plagued by companies' lack of interest in exploration amid low crude oil prices, their eagerness to focus on efficiency strategies, and Indonesia's difficult investment climate. At the 41st Indonesian Petroleum Association Convention and Exhibition in the Jakarta Convention Center on Wednesday (17/05) Christina Verchere, President Director of the Indonesia Petroleum Association (IPA), said low oil prices have been the main reason for reduced investment in oil and gas exploration since 2014.

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Stocks are under pressure in Asia on Friday morning (05/05) as metal prices continue to slide, while crude oil prices suffered their lowest close since November 2016 after a near five percent plunge yesterday on concerns of a US oil supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses, hence undermining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s earlier efforts to boost the oil price through production cut agreements (chances of seeing deeper cuts in OPEC nations are slim).

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The government of Indonesia appointed state-owned energy company Pertamina to operate eight oil & gas blocks after contracts with existing operators expire in 2018. Indonesia's new gross profit sharing scheme, which replaced the nation's cost recovery scheme, will be applied to the new contracts in 2018. Under the gross profit sharing scheme the Indonesian government and contractors agree up front on the proportion for splitting gross profit from oil and gas exploration (implying that all exploration and production costs are now borne by the operator).

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The government of Indonesia is confident that the new gross profit sharing mechanism that is set to replace the cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry in early 2017 is a fairer system for both the oil & gas contractor and the government. Earlier this month, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced this change in course. However, the new gross profit sharing mechanism in the oil and gas industry will only be applied to new contracts starting from early 2017.

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Indonesia is on track to achieve its (revised) oil lifting target in 2016 (referring to crude oil that is ready for sale). Two weeks before the end of 2016, Indonesia produced an average of 821,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year so far, slightly above the target of 820,000 bpd that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Initially, the Indonesian government targeted national oil production at 830,000 bpd. However, earlier this year the target was revised down to 820,000 bpd.

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While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s agreed to cut production (a deal that was joined by non-OPEC members, most notably Russia) at the organization's 171st meeting (held in Vienna on Wednesday 30 November), Indonesia decided to temporarily freeze its OPEC membership as it is reluctant to agree to a five percent cut in national crude oil production. Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced this decision.

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Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service believes Indonesia's non-financial companies, specifically those engaged in the commodities sector, will see improving corporate earnings in 2017 due to rising commodity prices and the economic recovery of the USA. In a report released on Monday (21/11), Moody's states that commodity prices are expected to continue their upward movement in 2017. This will trigger investment in the mining, oil & gas and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors.

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The Indonesian government now allows private investors to develop oil refineries in Indonesia, effectively ending state-owned energy Pertamina's (virtual) monopoly. Before this new regulation, private companies had to cooperate with Pertamina to build oil refineries in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The new policy is an effort to boost domestic oil refinery capacity in Indonesia (hence limiting the need for refined fuel imports) and improve the investment climate by opening this industry to the private sector. This sector can also apply for tax incentives.

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For a company it is very difficult to start activities in Indonesia's upstream oil and gas sector. As a result, not unoften, activities related to exploration and production are delayed. This is the major reason why Indonesia's oil production has been declining for the past two decades, while Indonesia's gas production today does not differ much from production one decade ago. Why is it difficult for an oil and gas company to get started in Indonesia?

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Eight commodity prices have been rising steadily so far this year on higher global demand. This rebound is expected to continue into 2017 although it will require a long time to touch the levels that we saw in 2011. The World Bank noted in a report released on 4 October 2016 that the prices of eight commodities - coal, crude oil, crude palm oil, copper, iron ore, tin, nickel and gold - have been rebounding so far this year. Rising commodity prices will support economic growth of Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy is one of the world's largest commodity exporters.

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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Indonesia has the potential to become a global force in the biodiesel industry because of the country’s position as the world’s top producer of crude palm oil (CPO). In 2014, Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to total 30 million tons. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India. As such, this commodity is one of Indonesia's most important foreign exchange earners, apart from coal, in the non-oil and gas sector.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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