The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated sharply on Monday (29/09) due to the market’s reaction against parliament’s passing of a bill that ends direct elections in the regions. On Friday (26/09), parliament agreed that mayors, district heads and governors will be elected by local legislatures instead of the people. Critics say this bill is a major setback for democracy and makes the system more vulnerable to corruption. Last Friday, investors had already pulled USD $119 million from Indonesian shares.

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Despite some concern about inflation, the US Federal Reserve stated that it will keep interest rates close to zero. The central bank announced this after the two-day policy meeting (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC). Ahead of the meeting, market participants had increasingly speculated about the chance of sooner-than-expected US interest rate hikes as US economic data has generally been positive (including 4.2 percent GDP growth in the second quarter and weekly jobless claims that declined to near record lows).

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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 1.26 percent to IDR 11,971 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (15/09). Indonesia’s currency depreciated sharply ahead of the FOMC’s two-day meeting as investors are awaiting for the results on Thursday. As August US retail sales rose at the fastest pace in four months, a winding down of the US bond-buying program and looming US interest rates have resulted in a strong US dollar.

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There are mixed opinions about the interest rate policy of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). Tomorrow (11/09), at the Board of Governor’s Meeting, the central bank will decide whether or not to change the country’s interest rates. Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) has been held at 7.50 percent for ten consecutive months. This relatively high figure managed to ease high inflation (which emerged after prices of subsidized fuel prices were raised in June 2013). However, it also further slowed economic growth.

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Although the Indonesia stock exchange as well as most businesses are still closed on Friday (01/08) amid Idul Fitri celebrations, trading in the Indonesian rupiah resumed after a four-day holiday. Impacted by developments in the USA, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 1.82 percent to IDR 11,791 per US dollar by 12:25 pm local Jakarta time (based on Bloomberg Index). Asian currencies are heading for the largest weekly decline since June 2014 after US economic data indicate improved economic recovery of the USA.

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US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2014 expanded 4 percent year-on-year (yoy), thus having nearly doubled from the GDP growth pace in the first quarter (2.1 percent yoy) when the USA was hit by severe winter weather. The US economic growth pace in Q2-2014 also exceeded analysts' forecasts who expected US GDP growth to range between 2 and 2.5 percent. Strong growth was caused by improved US consumer spending (expanding 2.5 percent and contributing over two-thirds to total economic activity in the USA).

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While some investors hope that the European Central Bank will enhance monetary easing by pumping more funds in the economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue monetary tightening. On 29-30 July, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets and probably reduce the bond-buying program (quantitative easing) by another chunk of USD $10 billion to USD $25 billion in August. Since the start of 2014 when the Fed bought USD $85 billion worth of bonds per month, the program has been wound down amid an improving US economy.

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Five emerging markets, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia, have become known to the world in 2013 as the ‘Fragile Five’, a term coined by analysts at Morgan Stanley. This term refers to those five emerging economies that were considered most vulnerable to the winding down of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (bond-buying program) as capital inflows dried up, or, in fact reversed. The five countries were assessed as risky due to their twin fiscal and current-account deficits, slowing economic growth and high inflation.

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The US dollar continues to depreciate against emerging currencies after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, released Wednesday (09/07), suggest that the US central bank will maintain historic low interest rates (0.0 - 0.25 percent) into 2015. The Fed informed that US interest rates hikes will only occur ”a considerable time” after the US asset-buying program (quantitative easing) has ended. Based on the latest minutes, this program is expected to end in October 2014.

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Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde stated on Sunday (06/07) that the institution expects improved global economic growth in the second half of 2014 as well as in 2015 supported by the assumption that China, the world’s second-largest economy, will expand between 7.0 and 7.5 percent in 2014, thus not showing a sharp slowdown. Later this month, the IMF will release its new global economic outlook. Lagarde said that forecasts will be slightly different from forecasts made in the April edition.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repurchase rate, or reverse repo) at 4.75 percent in the remainder of 2017. Priasto Aji, economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), says Bank Indonesia may not need to adjust its key interest rate at all this year even though there is looming further monetary tightening in the USA.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate policy unchanged at the March 2017 policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations especially after Bank Indonesia officials had stated that they see few room for monetary easing in the foreseeable future considering the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key rate several times this year (which could encourage capital outflows from Indonesia), while inflationary pressures in Indonesia are rising.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged at the January 2017 policy meeting on Thursday (19/01). The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. The decisions of Bank Indonesia are in line with analysts' forecasts. Due to risks of capital outflows Indonesia's central bank had few room to ease monetary policy.

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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American multinational finance company Goldman Sachs Group Inc believes Indonesia currently has strong enough economic fundamentals to cope with monetary tightening in the USA. Indonesia is in a better position now compared to 2013 when the taper tantrum (the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program) led to massive capital outflows from emerging markets (and Indonesia was among the biggest victims with the rupiah weakening more than 25 percent against the US dollar in 2013).

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Stock markets in Asia are mixed, yet tepid on Friday (16/12) after the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate regime for the second time in a decade on Wednesday (14/12). Although the Fed's move was widely anticipated (and therefore already "priced in" to a high degree) it still resulted in some capital outflows from Asia's stock markets on Thursday (13/12). Japan, as usual, is the notable exception as US dollar strength (or yen weakness) makes Japan's export-oriented stocks more attractive.

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The Bank of Indonesia recently resorted to a sudden cut in interest rate (by 25 bps to 4.75 percent) at its 20th October 2016 meeting. This followed a 25 bps reduction in September and thus this is the sixth time this year that the Indonesian central bank has elected to loosen monetary policy.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo rate (RR rate) by 25 basis points to 5 percent at the policy meeting that was concluded on Thursday (22/09). The lender of last resort also cut the Deposit and Lending Facility rates¹ by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Given the stable domestic economy, Bank Indonesia is able to allow a loser monetary policy hence providing more room for accelerated economic growth amid a still uncertain global economic context.

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As expected, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell on Friday (01/07) due to profit-taking after an impressive recent (relief) rally that brought the index into bull market territory earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah maintained its momentum, appreciating 0.72 percent to IDR 13,115 per US dollar on the first day of the new month, the currency's strongest level in three and a half months. Most Asian emerging markets have now repaired their earlier Brexit-induced losses.

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