The declining trend of city car sales continues in Indonesia. In the first two months of 2017 sales of city cars fell 41.8 percent to 2,511 units on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. This is not a new phenomenon. Ever since the low cost green car (LCGC) was introduced to the Indonesian market in late-2013, city car sales have been on the decline. In full-year 2016 city car sales had fallen 38.4 percent (y/y). A city car is a small car designed to be used primarily in (con)urban areas.

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In February 2017 domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 9.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 96,722 vehicles (from 88,208 sold vehicles in the same month one year ago), supported by the popularity of the Astra Toyota Calya and Astra Daihatsu Sigra (both are low-cost green cars) as well as strengthening purchasing power in the regions outside Java due to rising commodity prices. Also in the first month of 2017 Indonesian car sales grew on an annual basis, implying there rises optimism about Indonesia's automotive sector after having experienced two bleak years.

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The utilization of Indonesia's installed car production capacity is expected to fall from 58 percent in 2016 to 55 percent in 2017 as the expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity is not in line with growth of domestic car sales and car exports. Indonesia's car production capacity rose 14 percent (y/y) to 2.2 million units in 2017 due to the start of operations at two factories (owned by Mitsubishi and Wuling). However, the actual car production figure of Indonesia is estimated to reach 1.2 million units only in 2017 (up 9 percent from 1.1 million units in the preceding year).

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Astra International, among the biggest diversified conglomerates in Indonesia, plans to distribute a total of IDR 6.8 trillion (approx. USD $511 million) worth of dividend for financial year 2016 to its shareholders, about 45 percent of the company's total net profit (slightly below the 50 percent payout ratio in the preceding year). Astra's 2016 dividend involves final dividend of IDR 113 per share and interim dividend of IDR 55 per share (hence total dividend of IDR 168 per share).

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Passenger car sales in Indonesia are estimated to rise 11.5 percent per year in the 2017-2021 period supported by Indonesia's expanding middle class. This conclusion originates from research that was conducted by London-based BMI Research. Meanwhile, business consulting firm Frost and Sullivan sees Indonesian car sales rise 5 percent (y/y) to 1.11 million vehicles in 2017 supported by the popular low cost green cars and multipurpose vehicles.

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Automotive manufacturer Toyota Motor Corporation already realized 70 percent of its total of IDR 20 trillion (approx. USD $15 billion) worth of investment commitments in Indonesia. Japan-based Toyota will materialize its investment commitments gradually up to 2019. Warih Andang Tjahjono, Vice President Director at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia (TMMI), said his company invested IDR 10 trillion in late-2016, both in the form of a capital injection and for additional production facilities.

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Indonesia's car sales rose 3.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 974,972 vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016, improving from 940,027 sold vehicles in the same period one year ago. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), said this year's rising car sales in Indonesia are primarily supported by the launch of various new vehicles. He added Gaikindo's 2016 car sales target of 1.05 million could still be achieved, provided December's car sales will be more than 75,000 units.

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Car sales in Indonesia rose 4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 91,846 units in October 2016 compared to 88,408 vehicles in the same month one year earlier. Growth is attributed to the stabilizing economy of Indonesia and the launch of several new car models (that managed to entice consumers). New data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) show that Indonesia's car sales totaled 874,703 units in the first ten months of 2016, up 2.5 percent (y/y) from 853,089 cars in the same period one year ago.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 2.4 percent to around 783,000 vehicles in the first nine months of 2016 from 764,000 units sold in the same period one year earlier. Improving car sales this year are attributed to the launch of new low cost green car (LCGC) models - including the Toyota Calya and Daihatsu Sigra - at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2016, held between 11-21 August 2016 near Jakarta. Demand for both models, distributed by the Astra Group, is high, reflected by the two-month waiting list.

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Indonesia’s exports of cars and components reached a value of USD $552.6 million in August 2016, up 50.3 percent (m/m) from USD $368.3 million in the preceding month when many countries celebrated Idul Fitri (marking the end of the holy Ramadan month). According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia exported a total of USD $3.72 billion worth of cars and components in the first eight months of 2016, up 1.5 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), said rising car exports from Indonesia continue the positive performance that was recorded last year.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.

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Indonesian car sales in the first four months of 2013 continued its robust growth. Preliminary data from Agen Pemegang Merek (Brand Holder Agent or APM) indicates that from January to April of 2013 397,991 car units were sold in Indonesia, which constitutes a 17.75 percent increase compared to the first four months of 2012. Toyota retained its position as market leader with a market share of 35.9 percent. However, sales of Honda and Suzuki vehicles are growing fast in Indonesia.

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Astra International, Indonesia's largest listed company by market capitalization, presented its Q1-2013 financial results yesterday. The company, which represents the dominating force in Indonesia's automotive sector, posted a seven percent fall in net earnings (YoY) to IDR 4,310 trillion (USD $444.3 million) amid Indonesia's rising labour costs, weak commodity prices, increased competition in the country's car sector and effects of new minimum down-payment regulations in automotive Shariah-financing.

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The heavily subsidized fuel price of Indonesia is likely to be raised next month according to Indonesian media sources. Various high officials, including Economic minister Hatta Rajasa, discussed the possibility to raise the fuel price from IDR 4,500 (USD $0.46) to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.67) per liter starting from May. This increase will only apply to private passenger cars, and not to motorcycles and public transportation. However, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has not made up his mind yet.

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Indonesia's central government hopes that local governments team up with the private sector to develop the country's infrastructure. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said that there are two ways through which local governments can stimulate its infrastructure development: cut expenses on other fields and use it on infrastructure development instead, or, invite the private sector to participate in public-private partnerships (PPPs).

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