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Despite Indonesian President Joko Widodo having signed a regulation that will lead to a relatively cheap coal price for domestically-sold coal under the domestic market obligation, shares of Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy rose 1.39 percent to IDR 2,190 a piece on Thursday (08/03).
Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed Government Regulation No. 8/2018 on the Implementation of Mineral and Coal Mining Business Activities (Regulation No. 8/2018) on Wednesday March 7th, 2018. This implies that the Indonesian government changed the price mechanism for coal that is sold at home under the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme. Through the DMO, the central government forces local coal mining companies to sell part of their coal production at home.
Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) touched a multi-year high in March 2018. The HBA, which is determined by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on a monthly basis (and which is based on several global and domestic indexes), rose 1.2 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $101.86 per metric ton in March 2018, its highest position since May 2012.
After receiving criticism from various stakeholders, the Indonesian government reportedly decided to postpone the implementation of a new regulation that requires all domestic coal, palm oil and rice exporters to use ships that are owned by local sea shipping companies and requires them to use domestic insurance.
Borneo Olah Sarana Sukses, an Indonesia-based coal mining company, set its share price at IDR 400 a piece (approx. USD $0.03) for the initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The coal miner will offer 400 million shares, or 28.57 percent of the company's total share equity, to the public through the corporate move. As such, the company is set to raise IDR 160 billion (approx. USD $11.8 million).
Indonesian coal mining company Borneo Olah Sarana Sukses will soon conduct its initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The company plans to offer 400 million shares, equivalent to 28.57 percent of its share equity, to the public through the corporate move. Listing on the local exchange is scheduled for 21 February 2018.
Coal demand remains high, particularly due to robust demand from China, the world's largest coal importer. This brings the projection for the full-year 2018 coal price to the range of USD $98.50 - $107.00 per metric ton. So far this year the coal price (ICE NewCastle Coal January 2018) surged around 4 percent, while in full-year 2017 the price had surged 57.09 percent.
Domestic coal demand in Indonesia is estimated - by the Indonesian government - to reach 114.51 million tons in 2018, up around 6 percent from estimated demand in 2017. Bambang Gatot, Director General for Coal and Minerals at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said coal-fired power plants remain the biggest domestic consumers of coal.
Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) - set on a monthly basis by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (and which is based on domestic and international coal indices) - fell 0.8 percent to USD $94.04 per metric ton in December 2017. This decline is attributed to falling coal demand in China where authorities decided to curb coal imports.
Coal imports into China are expected to recover in the last two months of the year and therefore various analysts say the coal price is able to touch beyond USD $97 per ton before the year-end. In October coal imports into China - the world's largest coal importer - had fallen by a whopping 24 percent (m/m) to 21.3 million tons due to the availability of plenty domestic coal supplies.
Latest Columns Coal
On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).
The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.
Mining in Indonesia includes a part or all stages of coal and mineral exploration and exploitation. Minerals are defined by law number 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (“Mining Law”) as inorganic compounds which possess specific characteristics and compositions in the form of ores. Coal is defined as sediment of organic carbon which is naturally formed from plants. Mining in Indonesia does not include any activities related to exploration and exploitation of geothermal, oil and gas and ground water.
Global copper prices can come under pressure as Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) has started to export copper concentrate again this week after a nine-month hiatus caused by the dispute between the Indonesian government and NNT about Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (the “New Mining Law” of Indonesia), which sets high export taxes on unprocessed mineral exports (and stipulates a complete ban by 2017), in an effort to force Indonesian miners to build local processing facilities.
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG - rose 0.17 percent to 4,921.39 points on Tuesday (13/05), impacted by investors' reaction to positive earnings reports of Indonesian coal miners in the first quarter of 2014. Today, foreign investors recorded net buying of IDR 64 billion (USD $5.6 million) and accounted for 31 percent of trading activity. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014 and wait for more clarity about the (vice) presidential candidates that will compete.
Production of coalbed methane (CBM) in Indonesia will most likely not meet the government's target of 500 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in 2015. Coalbed methane, an environmental friendly fuel, is a form of natural gas that occurs in coal beds. Although the production of CBM is a complementary aspect of coal mining, it has only started to gain attention in recent years. CBM reserves in Indonesia, estimated at 453 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are among the world's largest CBM reserves (6 percent of total global CBM reserves).
Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:
Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.
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