The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) made a positive surprise move by agreeing to cut crude oil output for the first time in eight years. Reportedly, OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to limit oil production to 32.5 - 33.0 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), down from the current level of 33.5 million bpd. Although a formal agreement is yet to be reached (expected to happen in November) markets warmly welcomed the news: oil jumped 5 percent, while US energy stocks gained overnight. In Asia assets are extending the gains on Thursday (29/09).

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The goverment of Indonesia plans to revise Government Regulation No. 79/2010 scrapping several taxes that have been a burden for those companies that invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry (both the exploration and production phase). The government expects that several new fiscal and non-fiscal incentives will boost investment in this industry starting from 2017. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said it is important for the government to share in the "pain" in order to make oil and gas projects economically viable for investors.

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The government of Indonesia plans to offer the Bontang fuel refinery project to Iran. This refinery, which is targeted to have a processing capacity of 300,000 barrels of oil per day, will be located in Bontang (East Kalimantan). I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja, Director General of Oil & Gas at Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, considers it a positive step to offer the Bontang refinery project to Iran as this nation has showed an interest to develop refineries abroad in a bid to boost its crude exports after international sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

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Indonesia's crude oil production (oil lifting) in full-year 2016 is expected to reach 819,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), slightly below the target that is set in the Revised 2016 State Budget (820,000 bpd). Amien Sunaryadi, Head of the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKKMigas), said oil production realization in Indonesia so far this year stands at 834,000 bpd. However, due to seasonal factors output is set to fall in September. Moreover, amid low oil prices Indonesia somewhat discourages oil exploration and production.

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Crude oil prices are rebounding, climbing nearly 90 percent from 13-year lows at the start of 2016. However, compared to two years ago crude prices are still down 50 percent hence corporate earnings in the oil and gas industry remain subdued, while few investors are enticed to engage in exploration. To deal with low oil prices, oil and gas companies need to become more efficient thus pushing down production costs in order to optimize earnings. Lets take a look at Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned energy company. How much does it cost for Pertamina to produce one barrel of oil?

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Indonesia's upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas said the nation's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2016 reached the average of 835,234 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the target of 830,000 bpd that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This is positive news as it is rare for Indonesia to achieve its crude oil output target. In Q1-2016 the target was met due to the combination of a realistic oil production target and long-awaited crude production growth at Exxon Mobil Corp's Banyu Urip field (part of the Cepu Block in East Java).

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Indonesia's crude oil output was strong in the first quarter of 2016 on the back of higher-than-expected oil production of several oil companies in Indonesia. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas the nation's oil production totaled 833,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the January-March 2016 period, exceeding the oil lifting target that was set in the 2016 State Budget (830,000 bpd). It also means that the globe's low oil prices at the year-start, touching 12-year lows at around USD $27 per barrel, did not make local oil companies cut back on production rates.

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Oil production at the Banyu Urip field, part of the Cepu Block in East Java, has finally reached the level of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 after a long delay. According to Indonesia's oil & gas regulator SKK Migas, production at the field stood at an average of 130,000 bpd in the first month of 2016. The Banyu Urip field, operated by ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd, is expected to reach its top production rate - around 165,000 bpd - in March or April. This would mean that the Banyu Urip field accounts for nearly 20 percent of Indonesia's total oil production.

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The government of Indonesia wants to construct the Bontang oil refinery in East Kalimantan through a private-public partnership (PPP). Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said construction of the Bontang oil refinery is scheduled to commence in 2017. State-owned energy company Pertamina will be in charge of the project and is now searching for investors to participate in the project which is estimated to require a total of USD $14.5 billion in investment.

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Indonesia turned into a net oil importer in 2004 as domestic oil output declined sharply while domestic fuel consumption surged amid the growing economy (hence becoming more and more dependent on oil imports). Prior to 2016, the Indonesian government provided generous energy subsidies (for fuel and electricity), resulting in a deteriorating budget deficit, trade deficit, current account deficit, and pressure on the rupiah. Moreover, government spending on energy consumption limited room for government spending on productive sectors such as infrastructure and social development.

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General Director of Oil and Gas at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Edy Hermantoro said at the 38th IPA Convention and Exhibition on Friday (23/05) that the Indonesian government plans to tender a total of 21 blocks of oil and gas in a first bidding round in 2014. This involves 13 conventional oil and gas blocks and eight non-conventional (shale) oil and gas blocks. The government expects that these oil and gas blocks will add 3.5 billion barrels of oil and 107.7 trillion cubic (tcf) of gas resources.

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Although Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, contains an abundance of commodities and has the world's fourth-largest population, the country's export and import figures are still small compared to the world's leading exporting and importing countries (see table below). There are many - and much smaller - countries that post much more impressive import and export data. In terms of exports, Indonesia is too dependent on commodities (accounting for around 60 percent of all exports) causing problems in times of price downswings.

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Imports of oil will accelerate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020 if fuels continue to be subsidized by the Indonesian government. This development will seriously burden Indonesia's trade balance (and current account). In 2013, Indonesia posted a trade deficit of USD $12.6 billion in the oil & gas sector. Due to improved performance in the non-oil & gas sector, the overall trade deficit was kept at USD $4.06 billion. Besides placing downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, expensive subsidies also burden the state budget.

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Indonesia has the potential to become a global force in the biodiesel industry because of the country’s position as the world’s top producer of crude palm oil (CPO). In 2014, Indonesia’s CPO production is estimated to total 30 million tons. Traditionally, Indonesia exports about 75 percent of its total CPO production, particularly to the giant economies of China and India. As such, this commodity is one of Indonesia's most important foreign exchange earners, apart from coal, in the non-oil and gas sector.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global credit rating agencies, estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will reach USD $27.4 billion, equivalent to 3.1 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. As such, Fitch Ratings' forecast is more pessimistic than forecasts presented by both Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government. Both these institutions expect to curb the current account deficit below the three percent of GDP mark (a sustainable level). Global investors continue to carefully monitor the deficit.

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The government of Indonesia will revise its crude oil production target in 2014 to 820 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous target of 870 thousand bpd. The main reasons for this downgrade are the country's mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration as well as other investments in this sector. Indonesia, once an important oil exporting country and member of the OPEC, has seen its oil output decline drastically over the last decade, thus becoming a net importer as the country's domestic consumption continues to rise.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Usage of biodiesel for transportation in Indonesia is expected to reach 7.2 million kiloliter by 2015, a sharp increase from 600,000 kiloliter in the first nine months of 2013. State-owned Pertamina is expected to supply the extra 6.6 million kiloliter of biodiesel. The reason why the Indonesian government is eager to develop palm-based biofuel for transportation purposes is to reduce the country's reliance on the import of expensive diesel fuel. Imports of fuels and gas are the foremost reason that Indonesia is coping with a wide current account deficit.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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