Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks weakened sharply on Wednesday (08/10) due to internal and external factors. Externally, weakening stock indices on Wall Street on Tuesday (07/10) have a severe negative impact on the performance of Asian stocks today. Wall Street was down on the IMF’s downward revised outlook for global GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, as well as on Germany’s industrial production, which fell the most in five years in August 2014.

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After a long plenary session of the People’s Consultative Assembly (or MPR), Zulkifli Hasan has been elected as the Speaker of the MPR for the period 2014-2019. Zulkifli Hasan, a former Indonesian Forestry Minister, is backed by the Merah-Putih coalition and thus his election constitutes another blow for president-elect Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi). The Merah-Putih coalition is a coalition of six political parties that support vindictive defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.

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Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced to issue a presidential decree to override parliament’s approval of the controversial regional elections law. This new bill passed the House of Representatives (DPR) on Friday last week. Immediately institutions and people objected to the bill - which abolishes direct elections for regional leaders (leaving it to regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors) - as it is considered a step back for the country’s young democracy and reduces transparency.

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Incumbent Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) announced on Tuesday (30/09) that he prepares a plan to undermine the new bill - accepted by Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) - that blocks direct elections for regional leaders (leaving it to regional legislatures to elect mayors, district heads and governors). Many institutions and people have objected against the new bill as it is regarded a setback for the democratization process in Indonesia. SBY also immediately expressed its concern about the passing of the new bill.

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On 24 August 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic topics such as the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, revisions to coal export regulations and franchise businesses, poverty, the telecommunication sector, Prabowo Subianto’s legal challenge, and more.

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It took about six hours for Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) to read out the lengthy 300-page verdict in the case that was filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to large-scale violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the Constitutional Court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.

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The security status in Jakarta has been raised one day ahead of the ruling of Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) as the Jakarta administration anticipates public protests. The Constitutional Court will decide on defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claims that the election result of Indonesia’s July presidential election was influenced by massive fraud and violations (in both the voting and counting process). According to the official result Joko Widodo won with 53.15 percent of the votes.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate was relatively stagnant on Friday (15/08). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency of Southeast Asia’s largest economy had depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 11,680 per US dollar at 15:40 pm local Jakarta time. At the start of the day, the rupiah depreciated as market players were waiting for incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s state speech ahead of the country’s Independence Day on 17 August. Afterwards, the rupiah gained in line with the performance of other Asian currencies.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.86 percent to IDR 11,678 per US dollar on Monday (11/08) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah was supported by internal and external factors. On the internal side, the rupiah strengthened as the Constitutional Court is expected to dismiss defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s appeal. Former army general Subianto challenged the official election result, claiming that massive violations occurred at polling stations and during the counting process.

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Today (06/08), the first session of defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s legal challenge started. Based on data from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was won by Joko Widodo (Jokowi) with 53.15 percent to 46.85 percent of the votes. However, Subianto claims that the KPU’s outcome was influenced by fraud and other violations, leading to 50 million troubled votes in more than 200,000 Indonesian polling stations, and therefore challenges the result at the Constitutional Court.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.

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As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.

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On Tuesday (08/07), both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued where they left off yesterday. Supported by optimistic market participants speculating on a Joko Widodo victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, the rupiah appreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 11,626 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.72 percent to 5,024.71 points, surpassing the psychological level at 5,000 and approaching its record high level at 5,215 (21 March 2013).

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Indonesian Army Chief of Staff Budiman, without choosing a side, hopes to see a clear victory for one of the presidential candidates - Joko Widodo or Prabowo Subianto - in the election that is scheduled for Wednesday (09/07) as a large win will reduce chances of public disorder caused by disappointed supporters. Budiman said that a gap of at least five percent between the two contenders (based on the quick count results which will be released on the day of election) is considered a safer level.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply on Monday (07/07) due to the strong performance of presidential candidate Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the presidential debate with rival candidate Prabowo Subianto last Saturday evening. Indonesian media declared Jokowi the winner of the debate because of his confident, eloquent and well-structured performance. This debate, in which the candidates were joined by their running mates, was the fifth and final one ahead of the presidential election on Wednesday 9 July.

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The result of Indonesia’s presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014), which has become a tight race between Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo (Jokowi), will for sure have a large impact on foreign investors’ confidence in Indonesian politics and the economy. A few weeks ago, a survey of Deutsche Bank showed that a majority of respondents (consisting of foreign investors) intend to sell their Indonesian assets if controversial candidate Prabowo Subianto will be elected. What are foreigners’ perceptions of a Subianto win?

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