Indonesia is set to co-found a new cross-border Islamic (sharia-compliant) infrastructure bank together with Turkey and Saudi-based Islamic Development Bank (IDB), a multilateral lender. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said that Indonesia will contribute more than USD $300 million as start-up capital for the establishment of the new bank, named Islamic Investment Infrastructure Bank (IIIB), which aims to boost infrastructure development in various countries.

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In the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (13/04), the Washington-based institution revised down its economic growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2015, down from 5.6 percent in its October 2014 Update. Main reasons for this downgrade is that Indonesia’s export performance remains weak amid the sluggish global economy, including weak demand from China (Indonesia’s largest trading partner). Meanwhile, Indonesia’s domestic consumption is curtailed by high interest rates.

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Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are weakening on Monday’s trading day (13/04). During the first trading session at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index declined 0.65 percent to 5,455.45 points. Meanwhile, the rupiah had depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,973 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index at 1:05 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (13/04). What are the primary factors that influenced these weak performances?

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In the latest edition of the East Asia Pacific Economic Update, released on Monday (13 April 2015), the World Bank revised down its economic growth forecast for developing East Asia & China to 6.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 and 2016 from its previous assumption of 6.9 percent growth (y/y) in 2015 and 6.8 percent (y/y) in 2016. The main reason for this downward revision is the global uncertain economic context, which includes the impact of looming higher US interest rates and the appreciating US dollar.

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The World Bank released its latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly report on 18 March 2015. In this report, entitled ‘High Expectations’, the World Bank states that it praises the early reform progress in several key areas such as fuel subsidies as well as more key reforms that are underway. This raises high expectations about the Indonesian economy in the middle and longer term. However, the government also faces challenges to implement further complex structural reforms amid subdued growth prospects.

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On 18 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as presentations at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, reports from the World Bank, Deutsche Bank, Moody’s and the ADB on the Indonesian economy, Bank Indonesia’s interest rate, and more.

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After the World Bank released a rather gloomy forecast for global economic growth on Tuesday (13/01) while crude oil prices continue to fall, global commodity prices have become under pressure on Wednesday’s trading day. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said that the global economy will grow 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent (y/y). Its growth forecast for economic growth in 2016 was also revised down from 3.5 percent (y/y) to 3.3 percent.

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Despite slowing economic growth in China (the world’s second-largest economy), the World Bank forecasts higher economic growth for emerging markets in 2015 driven by a decline in global oil prices, a stronger US economy, and continued low global interest rates. The World Bank expects to see a 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate in emerging markets this year, up from an estimated 4.4 percent (y/y) in 2014. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow 3 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Coremap, a project supported by the World Bank, aims to revive Indonesia’s coral reefs in an effort to improve the welfare of coastal communities in Indonesia. By rehabilitating coral reefs, the country’s fish population, vital to the livelihoods of local communities, can expand. Moreover, the rehabilitation of coral reefs entails better opportunities in the (eco)tourism sector as it will attract underwater tourism. As such, new small businesses can be established in the coastal areas.

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Today, exactly ten years ago, Indonesia and 13 other countries were struck by a devastating tsunami resulting in the deaths of 230,000 people and displacement of 1.7 million people. In Aceh (the northern tip on the island of Sumatra), the main point of impact in Indonesia, more than 167,000 people died as a result of the tsunami (caused by a submarine earthquake in the Indian Ocean). According to the World Bank, Aceh is now better prepared to face such a natural disaster after a long reconstruction period.

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In a World Bank blog, World Bank economist Alex Sienaert posted an update on the economy of Indonesia. After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the country’s latest GDP growth figures in early February, two important revisions regarding Indonesia’s GDP statistics have been made: (1) BPS has shifted the basis of the computation from the year 2000 to 2010, and (2) it adopted a significantly updated methodology and presentation of the statistics (updating national accounts from the 1993 System of National Accounts [SNA] to SNA 2008).

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Foreign debt of Indonesia accelerated 11.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $294.4 billion in November 2014. This total debt of USD $294.4 billion in November 2014 consists of public foreign debt of USD $133.9 billion and private foreign debt of USD $160.5 billion. The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that public foreign debt rose 8.6 percent (y/y) mainly on a rise in foreign holdings on government debt securities. Meanwhile, the growth pace of private foreign debt slightly eased.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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In order to avoid the middle-income trap and join the ranks of the high income countries by 2030 (reaching a per capita income level of at least USD $12,500), Indonesia needs to raise economic growth beyond the 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) level. If the current gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is maintained (between 5 and 6 percent y/y) then it will take another decade to break from the middle income trap and become a high income country. However, GDP growth in 2014 is projected at a bleak 5.2 percent (y/y).

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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Despite positive stock indices in the USA and Europe at the end of last week as well as mostly positive indices in Asia today (08/12), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Several matters made investors decide to sell their Indonesia shares, including the World Bank’s downward revision of Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015, Japan’s recession, weakening Chinese exports, and the sharply depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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President Joko Widodo’s unexpected visit to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/10) signals that the new president of Indonesia is serious about wiping out severe bureaucracy that causes time-consuming and difficult procedures to obtain permits, licenses and certificates in a bid to ease doing business in Indonesia for both foreign and domestic investors. Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is eager to tackle the country’s ‘red-tape’ problem as it curtails the pace of economic growth in Indonesia.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly cut its outlook for global economic expansion for both 2014 and 2015. The institution decided to lower its forecast due to weaker growth in Japan, Latin America and Europe. According the IMF’s latest estimate, the global economy will grow 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2014, down from its previous estimate of 3.4 percent y/y, and 3.8 percent y/y in 2015 (down from 4.0 percent y/y in its July estimate). This is the third time this year that the IMF has had to cut its global economic growth forecast.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that although the recent weakening trend of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is in line with the performance of other Asian currencies, the central bank is prepared to intervene in the market in an effort to support the currency and keep it in a comfortable range. On Monday (06/10), Bank Indonesia Executive Director Tirta Segara already stated that foreign exchange intervention was conducted in September 2014 in order to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate.

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On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.

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