Indonesia's push for usage of renewable energy sources, particularly geothermal energy, at the expense of usage of fossil fuels (such as oil or coal) has experienced a setback as there has been an impasse between state-owned electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE), a subsidiary of state-owned energy company Pertamina regarding the renewal of their power purchase deal for electricity generated by PGE's Lahendong and Kamojang plants. The existing deal expires at the end of the year.

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Despite winter having arrived, global oil prices are still declining. Today (21/12), Brent crude prices plunged to the lowest level since 2004 on persistent concern about a global supply glut as the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil supplies rose 4.8 million barrels to 490.7 million in the second week of December, while the OPEC's production rate stood at 31.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2015. Meanwhile, oil demand is expected to fall in 2016. For example, oil consumption in the USA is projected to fall to 1.2 million bpd next year, from 1.8 bpd in 2015.

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On 20 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, Indonesia's interest rate environment, the trade balance, the country's energy mix, updates of the performance of listed companies, and more.

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Indonesia will most likely abandon its plans to establish four nuclear plants (with a combined capacity of 6 GW) by 2025. Sudirman Said, Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, recently said there are plenty of alternatives - especially renewable energy - in Indonesia to meet the government's target of 136.7 GW of power capacity by 2025 and 430 GW by the year 2050. Nuclear power is controversial due to health risks, environmental damage and nuclear proliferation (when used as a weapon). The nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 highlighted the risks of tapping nuclear power.

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Per 4 December 2015 Indonesia officially rejoined the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), seven years after the country had voluntarily exited the organization as it had turned in to a net oil importer. On the 168th meeting of the OPEC, held in Vienna (Austria), OPEC President (and Nigeria's Oil Minister) Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu welcomed Indonesia back into the organization. At the meeting Indonesia was represented by Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Sudirman Said.

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The government of Indonesia will tender three geothermal energy projects in October 2015. These three projects are the Way Ratai (South Sumatra), Bukit Kili (West Sumatra), and Marana (Central Sulawesi) fields. Indonesia is estimated to contain about 40 percent of the world’s geothermal reserves and therefore entails great potential for this energy source. However, Southeast Asia’s largest economy only utilizes approximately 4.7 percent (1,403 megawatts) of its total geothermal capacity (29,475 megawatts).

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Through capital injections the Indonesian government aims to enhance the role of various state-owned enterprises (SOEs) within the process of economic development. In the recently unveiled 2016 State Budget draft, which still requires approval from Indonesia’s House of Representatives, the government allocated a total of IDR 48.2 trillion (approx. USD $3.6 billion) to 24 SOEs in five priority sectors: food security, infrastructure & maritime development, energy security, strategic industry development, and national economic autonomy.

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After having delisted its shares from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2007, Mitra Energi Persada relisted 212 billion shares (approximately 11.6 percent of the company’s equity) on the IDX on Monday (04/05). The relisting was a success. Shares of the company, traded under the ticker KOPI, rose almost 50 percent to IDR 590. Mitra Energi Persada was originally established as an e-commerce company but later shifted its business to the energy sector. The company is a trader of natural gas, coal and oil.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia, which is expected to have improved slightly from 3.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to about 3 percent of GDP in 2014, is forecast to continue to improve in 2015 hence placing less pressures on the rupiah exchange rate and the economy in general. A wide current account deficit makes the country vulnerable to capital outflows in times of global shocks (for example looming higher US interest rates) as the deficit signals that Indonesia relies on foreign funding.

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Coal exports from Indonesia are expected to decline in the remainder of 2014 as the Indonesian government implemented a new licensing system for domestic coal miners - the ‘Listed Exporter’ status (Indonesian: Eksportir Terdaftar, ET) - per 1 October 2014 in an effort to optimize monitoring of the coal mining industry (illegal coal shipments from Indonesia form a structural problem). This new legal framework has led to confusion among miners causing that not all miners have been able to obtain the necessary status to resume coal shipments.

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The Indonesian government plans to tender 25 new geothermal development sites with a total combined capacity of 1,225 megawatt (MW). These 25 projects will require a total of USD $4.6 billion worth of investments and help to achieve the government’s target to raise the portion of geothermal energy in the country’s energy mix to 7.1 percent by 2025. These 25 projects are in addition to the 31 geothermal development projects that are currently being constructed and which should be operational by 2020.

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Growth of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia is expected to be significantly weaker in 2015 than initially forecast. Indonesia’s Industry Ministry cut its 2015 forecast for expansion of the country’s manufacturing industry to 6.1 percent (year-on-year) from the previous estimate of 6.8 percent. In tandem with slowing economic growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, manufacturing growth has slowed to 4.99 percent (y/y) in Q3-2014. Moreover, the HSBC/Markit PMI contracted to a record low of 48.0 in November 2014.

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Indonesia is facing the risk of becoming a net importer of energy by 2019 as the nation’s energy demand will reach 6.19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) whereas the domestic energy supply will only reach 6.04 million boepd by that year. Provided that the economy of Indonesia remains expanding at a pace of +5 percent (year-on-year) while investments in energy exploration do not rise accordingly, Southeast Asia’s largest economy will become dependent on foreign energy supplies.

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The new Joko Widodo-led government aims to triple domestic geothermal power production within the next five years in an effort to meet ever-increasing power demand in the world’s fourth-most populous country and to shift to more environment friendly energy sources (rather than the over-reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal). Although Indonesia is estimated to contain the world's largest geothermal energy reserves, the country only uses about four percent of its geothermal capacity potential.

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When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.

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After a long delay, Indonesia will finally start construction of the world's largest geothermal power plant, the USD $1.6 billion Sarulla project, in June 2014. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Chairul Tanjung said earlier this week that the groundbreaking of the Sarulla project will start very soon as the government had settled the financial framework. The project was already initiated in 1990 but shelved due to various issues, including the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed in 2016.

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The sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate in the second half of 2013 in combination with the decline in domestic oil lifting has led to a soaring of fuel subsidy spending in 2014. In the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014), the ceiling of energy subsidy spending for 3-kg LPG and fuels was set at IDR 210.7 billion (USD $18.3 billion). However, in the 2014 Revised State Budget Draft, the government proposes to raise the subsidy ceiling to IDR 285 trillion (USD $24.8 billion), thus swelling IDR 74.3 trillion from the initial ceiling.

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In an attempt to attract investments in Indonesia's geothermal power sector, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to offer higher prices for geothermal-based electricity. Based on a recommendation from the World Bank, the new proposed geothermal-produced electricity price will range between 11.5 and 29 cents per KwH and will be effective until 2025. Currently, state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara pays between 10 and 18.5 cents per KwH to independent geothermal power producers (feed-in tariff).

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Production of coalbed methane (CBM) in Indonesia will most likely not meet the government's target of 500 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in 2015. Coalbed methane, an environmental friendly fuel, is a form of natural gas that occurs in coal beds. Although the production of CBM is a complementary aspect of coal mining, it has only started to gain attention in recent years. CBM reserves in Indonesia, estimated at 453 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are among the world's largest CBM reserves (6 percent of total global CBM reserves).

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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