Rubber prices tumbled about 2 percent in early trading on Friday (21/07) after surging 4 percent in the previous trading session. The price of rubber for December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), tumbled 1.99 percent (or 4.30 points) to 211.90 yen per kilogram at 07:40 am local Jakarta time. Ahead of this tumble, there occurred a rubber price rally as most farmers held back their rubber stock sales following expectations of higher prices.

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The Indonesian government is having problems curbing the nation's coal output, especially now coal prices are at a much more attractive level compared to one year ago. Therefore, the government may consider implementing disincentives or even sanctions in order to keep coal production under control and push it down to (an annual) 400 million metric tons by 2019.

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Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) rose 4.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $78.95 per metric ton in July 2017. The HBA price, set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry each month, is based on (1) the Platts Kalimantan (5,900 kcal/kg GAR assessment), (2) the Argus-Indonesia Coal Index 1 (6,500 kcal/kg GAR), (3) the Newcastle Export Index - formerly the Barlow-Jonker index (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) - and (4) the globalCOAL Newcastle (6,000 kcal/kg NAR) index.

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While Indonesian authorities try to curtail the nation's coal production in order to safeguard plenty of supplies for future use (particularly to fuel Indonesia's coal-fired power plants), it is difficult for local coal miners to resist producing and exporting more coal now coal prices are still about 50 percent higher compared to the situation one year ago.

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The coal price is expected to rise in the remainder of this year as China seems eager to limit domestic coal output, while global coal demand is predicted to rise in the second half of 2017. After a steep decline in May, coal prices have been recovering in June. So far this month, coal prices rallied around 10 percent to slightly above USD $80 per ton (Newcastle index, July contracts).

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Fully state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), which holds a monopoly on electricity distribution in Indonesia, will soon acquire coal mining concessions in order to safeguard its future coal supplies and have a stronger position when negotiating coal prices with traders. PLN's power plants are estimated to require slightly more than 88 million tons in 2017, hence being the country's largest coal consumer.

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Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.

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Alfa Energi Investama, an Indonesia-based coal miner, will offer 300 million shares (equivalent to 23 percent of the company's enlarged shares) to the public in its initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange at a price range of IDR 400 - 500 a piece. Lautandhana Securindo has been appointed as lead underwriter.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was slightly in green territory shortly after opening on Wednesday (10/05), seemingly recovering from yesterday's losses when market participants were alarmed by the controversial two-year prison sentence for former Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama ("Ahok") that was handed by the North Jakarta District Court as the defendant was found guilty of blasphemy. Another matter that impacted negatively on Indonesian stocks was the big drop in global coal prices.

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Good news for Indonesian coal producers. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) continued to rise. The May 2017 HBA was set at USD $83.81 per metric ton, up 1.6 percent from the price that was set in the preceding month. The HBA, which is based on a selection of domestic and international coal indices, is set on a monthly basis by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.

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Mining in Indonesia includes a part or all stages of coal and mineral exploration and exploitation. Minerals are defined by law number 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (“Mining Law”) as inorganic compounds which possess specific characteristics and compositions in the form of ores. Coal is defined as sediment of organic carbon which is naturally formed from plants. Mining in Indonesia does not include any activities related to exploration and exploitation of geothermal, oil and gas and ground water.

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Global copper prices can come under pressure as Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) has started to export copper concentrate again this week after a nine-month hiatus caused by the dispute between the Indonesian government and NNT about Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (the “New Mining Law” of Indonesia), which sets high export taxes on unprocessed mineral exports (and stipulates a complete ban by 2017), in an effort to force Indonesian miners to build local processing facilities.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia - known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG - rose 0.17 percent to 4,921.39 points on Tuesday (13/05), impacted by investors' reaction to positive earnings reports of Indonesian coal miners in the first quarter of 2014. Today, foreign investors recorded net buying of IDR 64 billion (USD $5.6 million) and accounted for 31 percent of trading activity. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014 and wait for more clarity about the (vice) presidential candidates that will compete.

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Production of coalbed methane (CBM) in Indonesia will most likely not meet the government's target of 500 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in 2015. Coalbed methane, an environmental friendly fuel, is a form of natural gas that occurs in coal beds. Although the production of CBM is a complementary aspect of coal mining, it has only started to gain attention in recent years. CBM reserves in Indonesia, estimated at 453 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are among the world's largest CBM reserves (6 percent of total global CBM reserves).

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:

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Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.

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