A survey of the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, showed that the foreign business community will not be content if Prabowo Subianto takes over the presidential seat from incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. According to this survey, 56 percent of respondents are planning to sell Indonesian assets if the electorate chooses Subianto as next president in the election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. About 13 percent answered to buy Indonesian assets in the same scenario.

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A survey conducted by Pusat Data Bersatu (PDB) shows that the Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo-Jusuf Kalla pair enjoys more popularity than the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair. Both teams compete to be elected as Indonesia’s new president and vice president by the people (on 9 July 2014). The result of the survey, which was conducted in seven cities, indicates that, if the election would be held today, Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla can rely on 32.2 percent of the vote, whereas the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa team received 26.5 percent of the vote.

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On Monday evening (09/06), the first debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates (joined by their running mates) was held and broadcast live on national television by various Indonesian television stations. This debate is the first in a series of five debates in which both teams - Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Jusuf Kalla vs Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa - are able to share their vision and mission to the Indonesian electorate. The debate immediately became a trending topic on social media.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has appreciated 0.50 percent to IDR 11,779 per US dollar by 16:00pm local Jakarta time on Monday (09/06). This performance is in line with the general trend in Asia where emerging market currencies strengthened against the greenback on today’s trading day. The rupiah is among today’s best-performing emerging currencies as it was boosted by the higher trade surplus of China (one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners) and economic growth in Japan.

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With the presidential election of Indonesia (scheduled for 9 July) becoming a battle between Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, and former army general and Suharto crony Prabowo Subianto, it is worth taking a closer look into the ideas and policies that both candidates would like to implement if elected as the next Indonesian president, as well as their stance on specific economic issues. The viewpoints that are mentioned below are based on the documents that both parties provided to the General Election Commission.

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One day after the official announcement that two pairs will compete in the presidential election (9 July 2014), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate are still in a state of decline. Although yesterday (19/05) the rupiah and IHSG strengthened considerably prior and shortly after Joko "Jokowi" Widodo declared that Jusuf Kalla would be his running mate (the vice-presidential candidate) in the election, markets have been selling Indonesian assets since Monday afternoon.

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After Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo and Jusuf Kalla announced earlier today (19/05) to form a pair in the upcoming Indonesian presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014), supported by a coalition consisting of the PDI-P, NasDem, PKB and Hanura, the other pair also presented itself. Prabowo Subianto officially announced that Hatta Rajasa will be his running mate in the election. This pair is backed by Gerindra, PAN, PPP, PKS and Golkar. At the last moment Golkar, second-largest party in the April legislative election, decided to join this coalition.

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It is becoming more and more likely that the Golkar party (the second-largest political party of Indonesia based on the legislative election that was held in April 2014), will join the coalition that consists of the PDI-P (winner of the legislative election), NasDem and PKB. This coalition has already announced its full support for highly popular Governor of Jakarta Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as the coalition’s presidential nominee for the presidential election (9 July 2014). The running mate of Jokowi, however, remains a question mark.

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Chairul Tanjung, one of the richest businessmen of Indonesia, will replace Hatta Rajasa as Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs after the latter - who is also chairman of the PAN party - stepped down from his post to focus on his vice-presidential bid (as running mate of Prabowo Subianto) in the 2014 presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014). Today (16/05), Indonesian President Yudhoyono inaugurated Tanjung in the state palace. Tanjung only has five months left in office as a new government will be inaugurated in October 2014.

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The Indonesian presidential election, scheduled for 9 July 2014, is most likely to become a battle between Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. Although this had already been expected as both men can rely on popular support (according to various surveys) and have the political backing of important political parties, a number of developments on Tuesday (13/05) seem to confirm this expectation. Moreover, there is more clarity about the vice-presidential candidates that will join the July election.

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Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed 0.31 percent to 5,206.14 points on Thursday's trading (21/08) on speculation that Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will reject defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the official July 2014 presidential result is illegal due to massive violations. Although the Court is still reading out the verdict, it has already indicated that evidence for violations is incomplete and unconvincing. Therefore, a Court decision that calls for revoting has become unlikely.

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When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.

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As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.

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On Tuesday (08/07), both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued where they left off yesterday. Supported by optimistic market participants speculating on a Joko Widodo victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, the rupiah appreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 11,626 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.72 percent to 5,024.71 points, surpassing the psychological level at 5,000 and approaching its record high level at 5,215 (21 March 2013).

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Indonesian Army Chief of Staff Budiman, without choosing a side, hopes to see a clear victory for one of the presidential candidates - Joko Widodo or Prabowo Subianto - in the election that is scheduled for Wednesday (09/07) as a large win will reduce chances of public disorder caused by disappointed supporters. Budiman said that a gap of at least five percent between the two contenders (based on the quick count results which will be released on the day of election) is considered a safer level.

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