The Indonesian government released the 12th economic policy package on Thursday (28/04). This latest edition focuses on enhancing the ease of doing business for the small and mid-sized companies in Indonesia in a bid to attract more investment, hence giving a boost to economic growth. In the 12th package the government announces it has cut a number of procedures and permits, as well as costs, required for the development of a business. Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution unveiled the package on Thursday in Jakarta's Presidential Palace.

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Indonesia's state bonds are expected to remain a popular investment instrument in the second quarter of 2016 - perhaps even the most popular instrument - due to stable and more attractive yields compared to other investment instruments. Although the Indonesian rupiah and the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) have both strengthened markedly over the past week (particularly supported by higher crude oil prices), the global economy remains plagued by uncertainties (China's economic slowdown and possible higher borrowing costs in the USA). Analysts say that in this context investor appetite for Indonesian bonds increases.

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In rupiah terms, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 365.9 trillion in 2015, according to the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The BKPM, the central government's investment services agency, said FDI was strong in the fourth quarter of 2015 - rising 26 percent (y/y) - on the back of the government's recently unveiled series of economic stimulus packages.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment services agency, targets to see a 15 percent growth to IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43 billion) in investment realization in 2016 supported by an improving investment climate in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Franky Sibarani, Head of the BKPM, said the government is particularly eager to see sharp growth in investment realization in the country's manufacturing sector, in infrastructure, services and trade, and in the raw resources industry.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment service agency, said foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to account for 65 percent - or IDR 386.6 trillion (approx. USD $28.2 billion) - of total direct investment in Indonesia in 2016. The BKPM sees domestic direct investment realization next year at IDR 208.4 trillion. As such, in total, direct investment realization in Indonesia is estimated at IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43.4 billion) in 2016.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning that Indonesia's official third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.73 percent (y/y), slightly below analysts' consensus at 4.80 percent (y/y). However, Indonesia's economic expansion improved from the six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in the preceding quarter. Still, growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy remains sluggish amid low commodity prices, weak global demand, weaker household consumption, the high interest rate environment, and stagnating investment.

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The amount of empty office space in Jakarta's central business district (CBD) has grown as supply outpaces demand, while business activity in Indonesia has slowed amid the ongoing economic slowdown of Southeast Asia's largest economy. Since 2011 Indonesia's GDP growth has been slowing due to sluggish global growth and low commodity prices. According to information from Savills Consultants Indonesia, unit of London-listed global real estate service provider Savills Plc, the office space vacancy rate in Jakarta grew from 4.8 percent in 2014 to 8.4 percent in mid-2015.

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Today, the Indonesian government announced it extended a tax incentive for “pioneering” industries. This term refers to those industries that are considered key industries that cause a multiplier effect in the Indonesian economy (hence boosting economic) and provide employment opportunities for the local population. Examples of such industries are oil refinery, infrastructure, maritime transport, telecommunications, downstream metal production and agriculture processing. The extended incentive is effective per 16 August 2015.

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On the sidelines of the 24th World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that - despite global challenges - the government maintains its economic growth target of 5.7 percent (y/y) in 2015. However, he added that it will require great effort to achieve this target. One key strategy to achieve the target is to attract foreign investment through several policies including tax incentives and by easing the country’s bureaucratic hurdles for investment permits.

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Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s remains the only credit rating agency among the big three to maintain its BB+/stable rating on Indonesia’s sovereign credit (which is one notch below investment grade). Both Fitch Ratings (BBB-/stable) and Moody’s Investor Service (Baa3/stable) had already brought Indonesia back to investment grade in 2011 and 2012. Standard & Poor’s has been reluctant to raise Indonesia’s status as it wants to see more results from the country’s economic policy reforms.

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According to the latest data from Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), investment realization (consisting of both foreign and domestic direct investment) in Indonesia grew 10.7 percent (y/y) to IDR 155.3 trillion in the third quarter of 2016. Cumulatively, investment realization in Indonesia stands at 453.4 trillion in the first nine months of 2016, achieving about 76 percent of the full-year target (IDR 594.8 trillion). Most likely, the BKPM's full-year target will be achieved.

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According to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the government agency that provides investment services and forms the primary interface between the Indonesian government and businesses, it has assisted 59 companies through the three-hour licensing service that was started on 11 January 2016. Originally, this service was only available to big investors who either invest at least IDR 100 billion (approx. USD $7.5 million) or generate 1,000 new job positions for Indonesian workers. However, a Presidential Instruction also opened this special service to investment in four infrastructure-related sectors.

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In the first three policy meetings of 2016, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI rate gradually yet aggressively from 7.50 percent to 6.75 percent as inflation, the rupiah rate and Indonesia's current account deficit were regarded as 'under control'. At the same time, Indonesia's lender of last resort acknowledged the BI rate has failed to influence borrowing costs and market liquidity effectively and therefore decided to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark starting from August 2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).

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It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.

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For some Indonesian investors, trends in the precious metals markets might seem difficult to understand. This is often because changing valuations are often based on external events that are not directly related to the Indonesian economy. But when we look at the global factors that typically create rising and falling price moves in the precious metals, it becomes easier to find ways of positioning investments for what is likely to come next.

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In order to improve communication and avoid language barriers, the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) plans to open a special service desk for Chinese investors. BKPM, the investment services agency of the Indonesian government, sees language barriers between Chinese investors and Indonesians as a major obstacle; one that blocks foreign direct investment from China into Indonesia. The new desk, specifically for investment from China or Hong Kong, should improve communication hence improving realization of China's investment plans.

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The World Investment Report 2015 states that inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia grew 20 percent (y/y) to USD $23 billion in 2014. As such FDI growth in Indonesia outpaced FDI growth recorded in Singapore (+4 percent y/y to USD $68 billion) and Vietnam (+3 percent to USD $9.2 billion), causing optimism that Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - will continue to form a lucrative investment destination in the Asian continent for foreign investors in the years ahead.

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Indonesia is not the easiest place to invest for foreign investors. This is reflected by the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 index in which Indonesia ranks 120th. In a business forum, held last week in Beijing, Chinese businessmen expressed a number of matters that blocked or seriously delayed their investments in Indonesia. For Indonesia (both domestic and foreign) investment realization, particularly in infrastructure, is important as investments is considered the main driver for the country’s economic growth in 2016.

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