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Over the past two weeks the Indonesian rupiah depreciated significantly, passing beyond the IDR 13,600 per US dollar level. Also on Monday (12/02) rupiah weakening continued albeit very limited. By 15:25 pm local Jakarta time the currency of Indonesia had weakened 0.05 percent to IDR 13,635 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
There is major concern that Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index will continue to move deeper in red territory on Tuesday (06/02). Yesterday, on the first trading day of the week, the index had already fallen 0.59 percent to 6,589.68 points tracking Wall Street and European markets on Friday that went down amid concerns over sharply rising interest rates (with US 10-year bond yields reaching a four-year high).
The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index - rebounded 0.46 percent to 6,605.63 points on Wednesday (31/01) after the heavy 1.57 percent drop on the preceding day when Asian stock markets were dragged down by Wall Street and rising global bond yields.
Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.002 percent to 6,615.33 points on Thursday (25/01), almost unchanged from Wednesday's close. The performance of stocks was quite volatile across the Asian region. While benchmark indexes in the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea rose sharply, those in Singapore, Thailand, Japan and South Korea saw steep declines. Indonesia's performance was in between the two extremes.
Indonesia's state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) plans to issue rupiah-denominated global bonds (known as 'komodo bonds', 'nasi goreng' bonds or 'rendang' bonds) in the second quarter of 2018. PLN targets to raise up to USD $2 billion through the bond issuance. Proceeds will be used for financing its part in Indonesia's 35,000 MW power development program as well as for debt payments.
Despite rising Asian stocks on Thursday morning (04/01), supported by higher crude oil prices, surging Japanese shares, and US Federal Reserve minutes that show policy makers agree to a "gradual approach" in terms of further monetary tightening, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is expected to remain under pressure today.
Despite generally rising stock markets across Asia - still being supported by upbeat manufacturing data that hint at an upturn in global economic growth this year - Indonesia is bucking the trend, sliding 1.37 percent in the first trading session on Wednesday (03/01).
It was a remarkable first trading day of the year in Indonesia. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index showed a very volatile performance, starting in the red, then rising sharply to +1.32 percent around noon, and then falling to close 0.26 percent in the red zone at 6,339.24 points.
There is no stop to the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index in the last week of 2017. Amid mixed Asian stock markets (and thin trading volumes), Indonesian stocks are persistently touching new record highs. By 11:25 am local Jakarta time on Friday, the last trading day of the year, the Jakarta Composite Index had climbed 0.77 percent to 6,362.69 points on Friday (29/12).
Approaching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting - scheduled for 12-13 December 2017 - the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate remained stable on Monday (11/12). By 15:00 pm local Jakarta time, the rupiah had strengthened 0.01 percent to IDR 13,548 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). However, several analysts warn that the rupiah is likely to depreciate if the US Federal Reserve will indeed raise its benchmark interest rate.
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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue yesterday's rise as investors, particularly domestic investors, engaged in profit taking. Foreign investors, who were net buyers of Indonesian assets, were not able to guide the IHSG to positive territory. Mixed Asian stock indices, responding to weak Chinese data, did not support Indonesia's index. Moreover, market participants expect that the rupiah will continue its weakening trend and have begun speculating whether the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) will be raised again.
Yesterday's rising indices on Wall Street, high expectations of companies' financial reports and positive statements regarding economic growth in China resulted in a good day at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Indonesia's main stock index, the IHSG, rose 1.88 percent to 4,767.16 on Tuesday (23/07), even though technical indicators seemed to predict a weakening of the index. Also the continued fall of the Indonesian rupiah did not turn investors away from the market. In fact, foreign investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks.
As I wrote before, profit taking in combination with mixed movements of global stock indices resulted in the limited movement of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Monday (22/07). The IHSG was corrected 0.96 percent to 4,678.98. All of the sectoral indices weakened, except for the plantation and mining sectors. As there were no positive news publications that would make investors buy assets, they decided to engage in profit taking after the IHSG had risen for five consecutive days.
The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is experiencing one of its worst losing streaks in a decade. On Friday (19/07), the currency weakened to IDR 10,070 against the US dollar, which implies a devaluation of 4.14% in 2013 so far. The central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, does all it can to support the currency: the country's lender of last resort supplies dollars to the market triggering the reduction of foreign reserves from USD $105 million at end-May to $98 million at end-June, and raised its benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) by 50 bps to 6.50%.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) went up 0.89 percent to 4,720.44 on Thursday (18/07). The index was supported by developments in the United States. On Wednesday (17/07), Ben Bernanke spoke to the US Congress and said that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its bond-buying program in 2013 and may gradually withdraw the quantitative easing program in 2014. But only if economic recovery of the US provides the good context. This message supported the IHSG although foreign investors continued to record a net sale.
Amid widespread profit taking, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was able to post another day of limited growth on Tuesday (16/07). Asian stock indices, including the IHSG, were supported by rising American stock indices on Monday (15/07). Investors seem to be confident that Q2-2013 results of various Indonesian companies are positive and therefore engaged in stock trading although foreign investors were still mostly selling their Indonesian assets. At the end of today's trading day, the IHSG rose 0.18 percent to 4,644.04.
After finishing last week with three consecutive days of gains, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) reached up to 4,633.11. However, its movement is still rather volatile. Property, finance and consumption stocks were sold by investors after seeing the benchmark interest rate raised by Bank Indonesia (by 50 bps to 6.50 percent) on Thursday (11/07), while metal stocks formed the main supporter of the index at the end of the week. Trading volume in the regular market hit 5.2 trillion and foreigners recorded net purchases of IDR 288 billion.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was able to continue its rise on Thursday (11/07) despite mixed markets in the United States and Europe, that were waiting for the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, on the previous day. The minutes and Ben Bernanke's speech indicate that the bond-buying program will be continued for a while and this made investors decide to buy Indonesian assets, particularly large cap stocks such as Unilever Indonesia, Bank Mandiri and Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa.
Today, Bank Indonesia surprised many analysts and investors by raising its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent. Indonesia's central bank assessed that this measure is the correct one with regard to supporting the IDR rupiah (which is one of the worst Asian currencies against the US dollar this year) and to fight higher inflation after the government decided to cut fuel subsidies in June. It expects inflation to peak in July at about 2.3 percent (month to month) but to moderate soon afterwards.
Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.
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