One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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In line with most Southeast Asian stock markets and currencies, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah were rather flat with a tendency to weaken slightly on Tuesday (17/02). Most investors seem to avoid trading in this short trading week (On Thursday 19 February markets will be closed due to Chinese New Year celebrations). Moreover, market participants in Indonesia are waiting for the central bank’s interest rate decision later today. Lastly, failed talks between Greece and its creditors on Monday dented sentiment across Asia.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is depreciating sharply on Thursday (12/02). By 12:10 pm local Jakarta timezone, the currency had fallen 1.11 percent to IDR 12,865 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Market participants have become increasingly concerned about a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone and react by selling emerging market assets in search of safe havens such as the US dollar. Yesterday (11/02), the Eurozone’s finance ministers could not reach agreement on the Greek debt situation.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) hit a record high on Friday (06/02) on the back of rising palm oil-related stocks (palm oil demand is expected to grow due to the Indonesian government’s proposal to increase biodiesel subsidies) and an improvement in the country’s foreign exchange reserves which shows that economic fundamentals remain strong in current global uncertain times. Corporate earnings results of Indonesian companies also provide positive market sentiments.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate weakened on Friday’s trading day (30/01) in line with the performance of several other Asian currencies. South Korea’s won fell on strengthening expectations of an interest rate cut and Japan’s yen declined on the slowdown of government bond sales. For market participants these were reasons to purchase US dollars at the expense of the rupiah. Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.41 percent to IDR 12,633 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index at 2:35 pm local Jakarta time.

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The Indonesian government, central bank (Bank Indonesia) and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) agreed to revise several macroeconomic targets in the Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P 2015). The revisions include the country’s economic growth (GDP) pace, the average rupiah exchange rate, and inflation target. In essence, the revisions indicate that Indonesian authorities have become less optimistic about the Indonesian economy in 2015 amid external pressures.

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On 25 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the impact of the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program on Indonesia’s stocks and currency, the global challenges that are being faced by Indonesia, an infrastructure update, international relations, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at its Board of Governors’ Meeting on Thursday (15/01). The country’s Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were maintained at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the bank this interest rate environment is sufficient to push inflation, which has accelerated to 8.36 percent year-on-year (y/y) in December due to fuel subsidy reforms, back towards its target of 3 to 5 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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Despite pressures on the rupiah exchange rate amid a bullish US dollar ahead of monetary tightening in the USA, the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, holds a positive view on Indonesian bonds due to Indonesia’s recent fuel subsidy reforms and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. According to the German lender, Indonesian bond yields seem to have decoupled from the currency’s recent depreciating trend although “continued foreign exchange stress could eventually lead to capitulation from bond investors.

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On 11 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, an update on palm oil and coal, Indonesia’s subsidized fuel policy, but also topics such as flight schedule violations and Islamic radicalism.

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The weak stock indices in Europe and USA at the end of last week had a negative impact on stock indices in Asia on Monday (27/05/13), including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG). Investors rushed to reduce their stock portfolios, which resulted in an 1.36 percent fall to 5,085.14 points. At the end of last week, the IHSG had formed a green candlestick but today there were no continued positive signals as the market lacked positive sentiments. But a number of rising Asian indices and the positive openings of European stock indices managed to support the IHSG a bit.

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Various negative sentiments made investors decide to engage in profit taking today (23/05). As Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) had already reached the overbought area, it is highly susceptible of profit taking in case some negative news is released. But this time there were quite a lot of matters that made a negative impact: weak American indices on Wednesday (22/05) responding to the FOMC meeting, a spike in Japan's government bond yields, and Chinese manufacturing data that seems to indicate a contraction.

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Although Indonesia’s government stresses the need to relieve pressure on the state budget (by raising the price of subsidized fuel next month), it plans to allocate an additional IDR 16.1 trillion (USD $1.65 billion) to this year’s fuel subsidy budget. The additional allocation, which covers fuel, LPG and vegetable fuels, will raise government expenditure on fuel subsidies to IDR 209.9 trillion (USD $21.50 billion) from the IDR 193.8 trillion drafted in the original 2013 state budget (APBN 2013). Total energy subsidies will grow to IDR 309.9 trillion this year.

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American stock indices that refrained from staying in the green zone at the end of Monday's trading session (20/05/13) made market participants less enthusiastic to invest in Asian stocks. Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was one of the indices that felt this impact as a lack of positive sentiments blocked it from rising to another record high level. Investors were also concerned about profit taking because the index had reached the overbought level. When European indices opened weak on Tuesday it increased downward pressures on the IHSG.

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Various reasons explain why Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) managed to reach another record high on Monday (20/05/13) at 5,214.98 points, an 1.35 percent gain. Foreigners were back chasing Indonesian stocks (particularly blue chips), Asian indices were up (led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index), the listing of Bank Nationalnobu (NOBU) which gained 14.67 percent on its first trading day, positive European openings, and the positive response towards Indonesia's new Finance minister, Chatib Basri, regarded as an independent policy maker.

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The pace of the upward movement of Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was beyond expectation. While American and European stock indices were weak on Thursday (16/05/13) and Hong Kong's HSI as well as South Korea's KOSPI were closed due to holidays, it did not bring a negative impact on the IHSG. Particularly consumer and coal miner stocks supported the IHSG's rise. At the end of Friday's trading day (17/05/13), the IHSG hit a new record high level: 5,154.68 points, an 1.32 percent increase.

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Positive American and European stock indices on Tuesday (14/05/13) made a good impact on Asian stock indices on Wednesday (15/05/13), including Indonesia's main index (IHSG) which is heading towards the 5,100 points line. Although many foreign investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets, support from other Asian stock indices kept the IHSG within the green zone. At the end of the trading day, it stood at 5,089.88 points, a 0.16 percent rise.

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On Tuesday (14/05/13), Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) rose supported by positive Asian stock indices in the first trading session. But this pillar of support did not last for long as the Asian stock indices weakened afterwards, which impacted on the performance of the IHSG. Pressures of profit taking remained as the IHSG is still near its record high level but foreign investors - being net buyers of Indonesian stocks - helped to offset profit taking, resulting in a 0.54 percent gain to 5,081.94 points.

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After setting a new record last Friday, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) lost its strength on Monday (13/05/13). A number of factors were behind the decline. Foreign investors mostly sold their Indonesian assets as the record high level of the IHSG made it tempting to engage in profit taking. Moreover, the still unclear policy regarding Indonesia's subsidized fuel causes uncertainties. Lastly, Asian stock indices were mixed while European indices opened lower on Monday.

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Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) returned to where it belonged: above the level of 5,000 points. Apparently Moody's threat to downgrade Indonesia's credit rating, as has been done by Standard & Poor's a few days ago, did not leave a big impression on market participants. As a result, the IHSG rose 1.02 percent to 5,042.79 and thus almost repaired the damage done at the end of last week. Other Asian stock indices as well as positive openings in Europe also provided good support today.

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