In line with expectation, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent for a seven consecutive month in September’s Board of Governor’s meeting (17/09) as it aims to stabilize the rupiah amid global volatility caused by looming higher US interest rates and China’s hard landing (as well as yuan depreciation), while combating inflation which stood at 7.18 percent (y/y) in August. The overnight deposit facility rate and lending facility rate were left unchanged at 5.5 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

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Morgan Stanley Investment Management, a leading global investment firm, said it now considers Indonesia’s rupiah and Malaysia ringgit as the most attractive emerging-market currencies. Both currencies have been the worst-performing Asian currencies against the US dollar this year amid looming tighter monetary policy in the USA, low commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown (as well as a political scandal in Malaysia). The ringgit has depreciated 21 percent, while the rupiah has weakened 16.2 percent against the US dollar since the start of the year. Both currencies are touching 17-year lows.

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With all eyes on the two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, we could almost forget that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will also hold its monthly policy meeting today. Similar to the topic discussed in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (16-17 September), Bank Indonesia may consider raising its key interest rate (BI rate) as a Fed Fund Rate hike would trigger capital outflows, while Indonesia’s inflation rate remains high and the rupiah is fragile.

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Contrary to mostly rising Asian and global stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 0.34 percent to 4,332.51 points on Wednesday (16/09) as the rupiah continues to slide against the US dollar causing concern about corporate earnings of listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and eroding the value of Indonesian assets purchased by foreign investors. Outside Indonesia most markets were up as investors are in anticipation of a crucial two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting (16-17 September).

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Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the two-day policy meeting which starts today (16/09), the US dollar continues to appreciate against most currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah, as investors remain cautious ahead of a possible US interest rate hike. By 09:36 am local Jakarta time, the rupiah had depreciated 0.29 percent to IDR 14,450 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a fresh 17-year low.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are having a tough day as investors are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting (16-17 September), while Indonesia’s August 2015 trade surplus was slightly below analysts’ expectations. By 14:40 pm local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had weakened 1.17 percent to 4,339.07 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 14,401 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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While most Asian stock indices were mixed, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.69 percent to 4,390.37 points on Monday (14/09) with foreign investors recording a net buy of IDR 91.2 billion (approx. USD $6.5 million). Meanwhile, ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve meeting, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 14,333 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Based on data from the Inter Dealer Market Association, Indonesia’s ten-year sovereign bond yield climbed 31 basis points since 4 September 2015 to 9.24 percent, its highest level since 2010, on Friday morning (11/09) amid concern about the ailing rupiah. The rupiah has been under pressure as emerging market currencies have become unattractive ahead of a looming US interest rate hike and China’s recent decision to devalue its yuan (triggering concern about a currency war among Asia’s emerging currencies).

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According to credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Indonesian companies will have difficulty to pay their (growing) overseas debt in case the rupiah will touch IDR 15,000 per US dollar. Particularly as most Indonesian companies have to face declining profit and revenue growth due to curbed domestic demand amid Indonesia’s economic slowdown.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah started weak on Thursday morning (10/09), the day after the Indonesian government unveiled its first economic policy package. In line with the trend in the whole region this morning, most (emerging market) assets in Asia are declining on weak Chinese and Japanese economic data. These weak data cause heightened concern about sluggish global economic growth.

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In its most recent report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Indonesia to continue its robust economic growth. Last year, the economy of Indonesia expanded 6.23 percent, and according to the ADB this figure will rise to 6.4 percent in 2013 and 6.6 percent in 2014. However, since the start of April there have been some issues that are causing Indonesia's stock indices to go down. Although believed to be only temporary, it is worth taking a closer look.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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Last week Friday, American stock markets were not able to maintain a positive trend due to Nonfarm Payrolls that increased below expectation. Moreover, concerns about a spreading bird flu epidemic in China in combination with increased political tensions in Korea impacted on Monday's trading day (8 April 2013) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The index had to absorb a sell-off, thus closing lower to 4,897.52, an 0.58 percent decline.

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The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) experienced a mixed week. At the start of the week, the index rose, but towards the end of the week it weakened, although ending in the green on Friday. Recently, the IHSG has hit record levels, and this makes market participants worried that the index might fall in case there emerge negative market sentiments. These concerns are what made the index turn away from the next psychological boundary: 5,000 points.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Despite positive results of monthly US Factory Orders and Economic Optimism, it did not support Asian stock markets up to the end of Wednesday's trading day. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), on the other hand, maintained its upward movement to reach 4,981.47, a 0.49 percent gain. Matters that supported the IHSG's performance to yet another new record high level, were well-received 2012 company reports as well as expected dividend payouts.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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With a number of important global stock exchanges still closed due to Easter, it seemed that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) lacked a reference point to which it could cling. It is also likely that market participants have already consumed most of the 2012 corporate company reports and are therefore not waiting for new data of listed companies. Moreover, today's announcement of the relative high inflation rate of March did not support the IHSG either.

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Yesterday, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institution, released Indonesia's export and import numbers of February 2013. Indonesia's imports reached US $15.32 billion, while its exports stood at US $14.99 billion. It has thus resulted in the continuation of a trade deficit (US $327.4 million). For Indonesia, which always reported trade surpluses until last year, it is a worrying scenario as the trade deficit and higher inflation put pressure on the IDR rupiah.

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Current Finance minister Agus Martowardojo is approved by Indonesia's Parliament (DPR) to replace Darmin Nasution as governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) in May 2013. Martowardojo, who has been active in banking for over two decades and had a successful term as head of state-controlled Bank Mandiri, was finance minister since May 2010 after taking over from Sri Mulyani, who was pressured out of Indonesian politics.

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