The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at Thursday’s Board of Governor’s meeting. Currently, Bank Indonesia’s key interest rate (BI rate) stands at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility at 5.50 percent, and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. The central bank seems committed to this relatively high interest rate environment as the country’s inflation accelerated to 7.15 percent (y/y) in May, while the rupiah touched a 17-year low on 9 June 2015.

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In line with the performance of most other stock indices in Asia today (15/06), Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell over one percent in the first trading session. Primary reasons for this weak performance are concerns about stalled negotiations between Greece and its Eurozone creditors. Negotiations broke down without a deal on the bailout aid causing raising worries about a Greek default on its debt (a payment is due at the end of this month) as well as a Greek exit from the Eurozone (“Grexit”).

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Immediately after the opening of trade on Wednesday (10/06), Indonesian stocks rebounded sharply. Yesterday, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had fallen 2.30 percent due to worries about looming higher US interest rates later this year, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone, heavy rupiah depreciation, and weak domestic macroeconomic data (such as Indonesia’s high inflation, disappointing Q1-2015 economic growth, the still wide current account deficit, and the central bank’s falling forex reserves).

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Indonesian stocks declined more than expected during the first trading session on Tuesday (09/06). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 3.12 percent to 4,858.31 points amid heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike as well as worries about the Greek debt situation in the Eurozone. The performance of other Asian stock indices was mixed on Tuesday morning with Shanghai, Singapore and South Korea showing modest gains, while New Zealand, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan were down marginally.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are experiencing severe pressures at the start of the new trading week. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 1.68 percent to 5,014.99 points (a seven-month low), while the rupiah depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 13,385 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (08/06). As such, the rupiah extended its record-low closing in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are the worst performing Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah continues to be a cause for concern as the currency immediately depreciated heavily after trading opened on Monday (08/06). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah hit a new record-low of IDR 13,382 per US dollar in the post Asian Financial Crisis era at 9:10 am. Due to a lack of domestic and international positive sentiments only central bank intervention can support the country's ailing currency. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks followed suit by declining 0.70 percent shortly after opening.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued to set a new record-low in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 13,290 per US dollar on Friday (05/06), the weakest level since 1998. A number of factors are responsible for this weak performance. These include higher bond yields, US dollar demand due to dividend repatriation and debt repayment, Indonesia’s high inflation, uncertainty about the Greek debt crisis and looming higher US interest rates.

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As the Indonesian rupiah continued to depreciate on Thursday (04/06), touching a 17-year low, a central bank official tried to ease concerns by stating that Bank Indonesia is always in the foreign exchange and bond markets to monitor movements and ease volatility. On Thursday morning the bond yield, which has been rising since Friday (29/05), was 8.198 percent. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's rupiah had depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 13,245 by 11:10 am local Jakarta time.

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In line with other stock indices in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) has been weakening since the start of trading on Wednesday (03/06). Yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street, concern about rising bond yields, worries about the possibility of a default by debt-ridden Greece, and weak macroeconomic data from Indonesia have all contributed to the negative performance of Indonesian stocks so far today. By 11:15 am local time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.42 percent.

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Today, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) reached yet another new record high as most market participants used the current positive market sentiments to maintain their stock portfolios, although part of the investors also took the chance to engage in profit taking. Most Asian stock markets gained significantly which was followed by positive openings of European stock indices. Both developments impacted heavily on the IHSG.

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Apparently, yesterday's decline was only a small stumbling block for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). Indonesia's main indicator rebounded strongly after feeling the effects of stronger American stock indices that were positively influenced by a rise in Housing Index and Consumer Confidence. Moreover, the IHSG accelerated its gain after Asian stock markets and the opening of Europe's stock indices were positive.

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On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was not able to maintain its record breaking upward movement. China's possible decision to limit credit growth in the property sector and the election in Italy contributed significantly to the decline of the IHSG. Moreover, it was influenced by poor openings of European stock markets. Investors thus decided to engage in profit taking, while waiting for further global developments.

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The combination of the downgrade of Britain's government bond rating to AA1, China's plan to limit its property growth, and a decline in the HSBC Manufacturing PMI, was not able to block the growth of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) today. In particular the purchase appetite of foreign investors made the index move to a new record high. Positive openings of European stock markets also provided a boost for the IHSG.

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Despite negative influence of stock markets in America, Europe and China, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) managed to record a gain. During Friday's intraday trade, Indonesia's main indicator moved flat. However, stimulus from indices in Japan, Australia and Singapore, made it rise. Foreigners continued to buy Indonesian assets, while various companies reported good corporate results (such as Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Danamon, Bank Cimb Niaga, Hero Supermarket).

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Today, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) had to give up its upward movement. Indonesia's main indicator, that moved in the red zone during the whole day, was affected by profit taking, and although on previous occasions the index successfully passed beyond the forming of a 'shooting star', today it failed. Its movement further away from the upper bollinger band led to the assumption that the IHSG will test its next support level.

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Although the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was moving in the red zone for a while during today's trading day, in the end it recorded a small gain. Most other Asian stock indices, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai, went up as well. High expectations about continued IHSG-growth, strong corporate results of companies, and continued robust foreign demand for Indonesian stocks pushed the index up.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.

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The upward movement of American and European stock indices yesterday, brought on due to positive internal sentiments in both regions, provided good support for Asian stock markets today. Apart from foreign influences, Asian stock markets were also supported by company reports that showed good corporate results in 2012. As such, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) also joined the green wave of Asian stock markets, and set a new record high.

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