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The Indonesian rupiah continued its remarkable rally on Tuesday (22/12). The currency had appreciated 0.98 percent to IDR 13,672 per US dollar by 11:10 am local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah has recovered from a recent low of IDR 14,123 on Monday 14 December to IDR 13,672 per US dollar, a 3.2 percentage point advance in about one week. There are several matters that explain this remarkable performance.
The Indonesian rupiah is strengthening remarkably against the US dollar on Monday (21/12) despite expectation that the rupiah will become the worst-performing Asian currency in 2016 on capital outflows (amid more US interest rate hikes planned for 2016), Indonesia's falling foreign exchange reserves, and persistent low commodity prices. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the Indonesian rupiah had appreciated 1.13 percent to IDR 13,760 per US dollar by 14:20 pm local Jakarta time on Monday (21/12).
On 20 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as updates on the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah, Indonesia's interest rate environment, the trade balance, the country's energy mix, updates of the performance of listed companies, and more.
Stock indices in Southeast Asia plunged on Friday (18/12), led by benchmark indices in Thailand and Indonesia. These Asian markets followed the global correction that occurred after investors weighed in the possible impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. US and European stocks dropped on Thursday and Friday, while prices of oil and other commodities continued to slide. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.92 percent to 4,468.65 points.
After the rally on Thursday (responding positively to the Federal Reserve's announcement to raise its Fed Fund Rate), Indonesian assets are weakening on Friday (18/12) while most other Asian markets are down. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.20 percent to 4,501.34 points by 09:45 am local Jakarta time, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 14,040 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). As such, Indonesian stocks are following the example of US stocks that plunged overnight.
Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Southeast Asia's largest economy, kept its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the December policy meeting on Thursday (17/12). Meanwhile, the overnight deposit rate facility (Fasbi) was left unchanged at 5.50 percent and the lending facility at 8.00 percent. It was the tenth consecutive month without changing the country's interest rate environment (in February 2015 the central bank cut the BI rate by 0.25 percent).
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah responded highly positive to the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise its key Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday (16/12). Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) soared 1.62 percent to 4,555.96 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.44 percent to IDR 14,009 per US dollar. Not only in Indonesia but also globally stocks thrived on the ending of prolonged uncertainty about the timing of the US interest rate hike.
The US Federal Reserve finally decided to raise the Fed Fund Rate by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting (15-16 December) on a considerable improvement in US labor market conditions (the US unemployment rate having fallen to 5 percent) and US inflation projected to meet the Fed's 2 percent target over the medium term. After this announcement US stocks soared. Emerging markets were not hit by severe capital outflows after the rate hike. Asian stock indices strengthened sharply on Thursday morning (17/12).
In line with expectations and the general trend so far this year, Indonesian car sales fell 4.4 percent to 87,311 units in November 2015. In the January-November 2015 period, the country's total car sales reached 940,317 units, down 16.7 percent from car sales in the same period last year. The main cause of this weak performance is Indonesians' weakened purchasing power amid the country's economic slowdown, high inflation (in the first three quarters of the year), and low commodity prices.
Stock markets in Asia are experiencing rough weather as investors pull funds out of emerging markets. By 11:25 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index had plunged 1.11 percent to 4,344.69 points, while the rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 14,068 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Investors are seeking safe(r) haven assets as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key Fed Fund Rate (for the first time in almost a decade) at its next FOMC meeting (scheduled for 15-16 December).
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Although the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was moving in the red zone for a while during today's trading day, in the end it recorded a small gain. Most other Asian stock indices, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai, went up as well. High expectations about continued IHSG-growth, strong corporate results of companies, and continued robust foreign demand for Indonesian stocks pushed the index up.
Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.
Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.
The upward movement of American and European stock indices yesterday, brought on due to positive internal sentiments in both regions, provided good support for Asian stock markets today. Apart from foreign influences, Asian stock markets were also supported by company reports that showed good corporate results in 2012. As such, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) also joined the green wave of Asian stock markets, and set a new record high.
A continued positive movement of the Nikkei index provided good support for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) on Tuesday's trading day. Many Asian stock markets have not opened yet after the Chinese new year and therefore the Nikkei became the reference for the performance of the IHSG. Apart from the influence of the Nikkei, many Indonesian company reports that were published today, had a positive effect on the IHSG, resulting in a new record high.
It seems that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was blessed by the Chinese new year celebrations as it closed higher on Monday than on the previous trading day. This is a better performance than usual on the days around the new year. If we take a look at the period 2008-2012, the IHSG declined three times on the day before new year, and twice on the day after. This year, the IHSG declined on the day before by -0.26% and increased by 0.27 on the day after.
After rallying for three days to try to end on a new resistance level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to retreat. As we suspected, the index weakened after its record high. Moreover, American and European indices were weak on Thursday, thus influencing the performance of the IHSG on Friday. Lastly, a number of Asian companies reported weak corporate reports that subsequently impacted on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG.
The positive response of Asian stock markets towards manufacture data from Europe, and the rebound of American and European stocks turned the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) back into green territory. Positive market sentiments impacted - as usual - on commodity stocks, particularly mining stocks, and which thus gained the most: Vale Indonesia (INCO), Antam (ANTM), Timah (TINS), and Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI) all increased significantly.
On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) ended lower as widespread profit taking coloured transactions. Other Asian stock indices, such as the Nikkei (Japan) and Hang Seng (Hong Kong), fell hard and impacted on the performance of the IHSG. The publication of Indonesia's 2012 GDP growth also brought negative sentiments as its result (6.2%) was below expectations.
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