Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (known as the BI rate) at 7.50 percent in today's Board of Governor's meeting (09/01). The institution decided not to change its interest rate because it estimates that the inflation target for 2014 is not in jeopardy (4.5 percent) while Indonesia's economic growth prospects for 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged. Also the overnight lending facility as well as deposit facility rate (Fasbi) were kept at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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On Thursday (09/01), the US dollar appreciated after the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting as well as positive US employment data. The minutes show that Federal Reserve policy makers are confident that the economy is strong enough to start scaling back its quantitative easing program, although the minutes do not provide a clear schedule about the tapering. Yesterday (08/01), it was also released that private-sector payrolls increased by 238,000 positions in December 2013.

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Today (08/01), Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced that Indonesia’s official reserve assets stood at USD $99.4 billion at the end of December 2013, implying an USD $2.4 billion growth from the foreign exchange reserves at the end of the previous month (USD $97.0 billion). According to Bank Indonesia, these assets cover 5.6 months of imports or 5.4 months of imports and servicing of government external debt (well above the international standards of reserve adequacy).

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is moving sideways on Wednesday's trading day (08/01). At 13:00 local Jakarta time, the rupiah was down 0.02 percent to IDR 12,240 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This morning the US dollar slightly depreciated against most Asian currencies after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said to plan to upgrade its forecast for global economic growth as the US economy improves. Yesterday, Indonesia held Asia's largest US dollar-denominated bonds since 1998.

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In line with most other Asia-Pacific currencies, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its depreciating trend against the US dollar on Tuesday morning (07/01). Market participants tend to avoid the rupiah and prefer to wait & see for international data first. For example, today's release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This will inform about the stance of Federal Reserve officials on the winding down of the quantitative easing program (planned for this January).

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Supported by legislative and presidential elections, car sales in Indonesia are expected to grow between five and ten percent to 1.30 million total vehicles in 2014. These elections are estimated to boost the domestic money flow due to increased economic activity in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Consumption goods such as cars and food & beverage products are expected to feel the impact of this development and may offset the negative impact brought on by the weak rupiah, high inflation and the high interest rate environment.

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On Thursday (02/01), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the December 2013 inflation figure of Indonesia as well as the calender inflation rate for full-year 2013. Higher food prices and house prices were the main contributors to the 0.55 percent inflation rate in December 2013. Seasonal celebrations, like Christmas and New Year, always translate into higher inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Higher fuel prices were the main contributor to the 8.38 percent inflation rate in full-year 2013.

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In order to support Indonesia's sharply depreciated rupiah exchange rate, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia or BI) improved provisions for Hedge Swap Transactions through Bank Indonesia Regulation No.15/17/PBI/2013 (which takes effect as of 3 February 2014). Through this arrangement, Indonesian banks can sell their US dollars to BI at the current spot rate and promise to buy the amount at a later date on an agreed rate. This protects banks against fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate.

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Ahead of the new year, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continues its downward trend on Monday (30/12). Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) fell to IDR 12,270 per US dollar from IDR 12,260 on the previous trading day. Due to the improving US economy, the US dollar keeps appreciating against the majority of emerging currencies. At most local Indonesian banks, the rupiah is traded significantly above the psychological level of IDR 12,000 per US dollar.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Monday (23/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg's Dollar Index showed a depreciating rupiah. The JISDOR, which was launched by Bank Indonesia in May to manage exchange rate fluctuations, fell 0.01 percent to IDR 12,246 per US dollar, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a 0.29 percent decline of the rupiah to IDR 12,250 per US dollar at 14:10:09 afternoon, local Jakarta time.

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On Tuesday's trading day, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was not able to maintain its record breaking upward movement. China's possible decision to limit credit growth in the property sector and the election in Italy contributed significantly to the decline of the IHSG. Moreover, it was influenced by poor openings of European stock markets. Investors thus decided to engage in profit taking, while waiting for further global developments.

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The combination of the downgrade of Britain's government bond rating to AA1, China's plan to limit its property growth, and a decline in the HSBC Manufacturing PMI, was not able to block the growth of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) today. In particular the purchase appetite of foreign investors made the index move to a new record high. Positive openings of European stock markets also provided a boost for the IHSG.

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Despite negative influence of stock markets in America, Europe and China, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) managed to record a gain. During Friday's intraday trade, Indonesia's main indicator moved flat. However, stimulus from indices in Japan, Australia and Singapore, made it rise. Foreigners continued to buy Indonesian assets, while various companies reported good corporate results (such as Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Danamon, Bank Cimb Niaga, Hero Supermarket).

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Today, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) had to give up its upward movement. Indonesia's main indicator, that moved in the red zone during the whole day, was affected by profit taking, and although on previous occasions the index successfully passed beyond the forming of a 'shooting star', today it failed. Its movement further away from the upper bollinger band led to the assumption that the IHSG will test its next support level.

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Although the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was moving in the red zone for a while during today's trading day, in the end it recorded a small gain. Most other Asian stock indices, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai, went up as well. High expectations about continued IHSG-growth, strong corporate results of companies, and continued robust foreign demand for Indonesian stocks pushed the index up.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.

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The upward movement of American and European stock indices yesterday, brought on due to positive internal sentiments in both regions, provided good support for Asian stock markets today. Apart from foreign influences, Asian stock markets were also supported by company reports that showed good corporate results in 2012. As such, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) also joined the green wave of Asian stock markets, and set a new record high.

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A continued positive movement of the Nikkei index provided good support for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) on Tuesday's trading day. Many Asian stock markets have not opened yet after the Chinese new year and therefore the Nikkei became the reference for the performance of the IHSG. Apart from the influence of the Nikkei, many Indonesian company reports that were published today, had a positive effect on the IHSG, resulting in a new record high.

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It seems that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was blessed by the Chinese new year celebrations as it closed higher on Monday than on the previous trading day. This is a better performance than usual on the days around the new year. If we take a look at the period 2008-2012, the IHSG declined three times on the day before new year, and twice on the day after. This year, the IHSG declined on the day before by -0.26% and increased by 0.27 on the day after.

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