Soon-to-be president of Indonesia Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) stated that he intends to cut the large fuel and electricity subsidies once in office. Indonesia’s Revised State Budget of 2015 (RAPBN 2015) allocates IDR 363.5 trillion (about USD $31.2 billion) to energy subsidies. This figure accounts for about 18 percent of total government spending (IDR 2,019.9 trillion) set for 2015. Although the energy subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society, they cause complex problems in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  

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Today (06/08), the first session of defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s legal challenge started. Based on data from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was won by Joko Widodo (Jokowi) with 53.15 percent to 46.85 percent of the votes. However, Subianto claims that the KPU’s outcome was influenced by fraud and other violations, leading to 50 million troubled votes in more than 200,000 Indonesian polling stations, and therefore challenges the result at the Constitutional Court.

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As is known, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto did not accept his defeat in Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election and pledged to challenge the election result in the country’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi). In last month’s presidential race, Subianto was defeated by Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) by 53.15 percent to 46.85 percent. However, the defeated contender claims that there have been many cases of fraud or violations at the polling stations on Election Day (9 July 2014).

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Although the Indonesia stock exchange as well as most businesses are still closed on Friday (01/08) amid Idul Fitri celebrations, trading in the Indonesian rupiah resumed after a four-day holiday. Impacted by developments in the USA, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had depreciated 1.82 percent to IDR 11,791 per US dollar by 12:25 pm local Jakarta time (based on Bloomberg Index). Asian currencies are heading for the largest weekly decline since June 2014 after US economic data indicate improved economic recovery of the USA.

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On 27 July 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve political and economic topics such as the presidential election result, foreign & domestic investment realization, poverty, corporate earnings reports, the latest World Bank report, and more.

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Controversial former army general Prabowo Subianto, who was defeated in Indonesia's 2014 presidential election, is expected to challenge the election result in the Constitutional Court, claiming that the election has been influenced by massive vote fraud. Yesterday (22/07), prior to the official release of the election result by the General Elections Commission (KPU), Subianto already withdrew from the recapitulation process. Rival Joko Widodo (Jokowi) won the election securing 53.15 percent of the votes.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) may reach a new record high level this week after market favourite Joko Widodo - popularly known as Jokowi - was officially announced the winner of the 2014 presidential election by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on Tuesday (22/07). Not unimportantly, the final decision was not accompanied by any riots or social unrest Jakarta or other parts of the Archipelago, thus giving investors some more peace of mind regarding the stability of Indonesian assets.

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On Tuesday evening (22/07), the General Elections Commission (KPU) officially declared Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, the winner of the 2014 presidential election. Jokowi beat Prabowo Subianto, a controversial former army general, by 53.15 to 46.85 percent. Subianto did not witness the announcement. Several hours earlier, when news started to spread about a Jokowi win, Subianto announced to withdraw from the vote-counting process. He will challenge the result in the country's Constitutional Court (the ruling is expected in late August).

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The performance of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks has been impacted by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s withdrawal from the General Elections Commission’s electoral process on Tuesday (22/07). Although the Commission (KPU) has not publicly announced the outcome of the 2014 presidential election yet, Subianto’s response is a clear sign that rival Joko Widodo - as expected - has won the election. Subianto claims that the KPU is corrupt and will challenge the outcome in the Constitutional Court.

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The General Elections Commission (KPU) is expected to release the official result of the 2014 Indonesian presidential election after 16:00 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (22/07/2014). First, the institution will complete the recapitulation of votes in the five remaining Indonesian provinces as well as the votes that have been cast abroad, across 96 countries. Based on the preliminary results of the KPU and various credible quick counts, Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won the election by a five percentage point margin.

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In the past couple of days Indonesian media touched upon the government’s proposal to revive a law that had been removed by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court in 2006. This law makes the act of insulting the Indonesian president an illegal act and can lead to prison sentences and fines. Criticism on the government’s proposal immediately emerged as several legislators and human rights activists fear that freedom of speech will be curtailed in the young democracy. Moreover, it can further erode public support for President Joko Widodo.

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Ahead of the release of Indonesia’s official first quarter GDP growth figure (scheduled to be released in the first week of May), Indonesian stocks fell and the rupiah depreciated (slightly) against the US dollar on the back of weak market sentiments that have plagued Indonesian markets over the past week. Most importantly, weaker-than-expected Q1-2015 corporate earnings reports of listed Indonesian blue chips have made market participants concerned that Indonesia’s economic slowdown has continued into the first quarter of 2015.

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Investment realization in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2015 totaled IDR 124.6 trillion (USD $9.7 billion), up 16.9 percent from the same quarter last year. Domestic direct investment climbed 22.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 42.5 trillion, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 14 percent (y/y) to IDR 82.1 trillion in Q1-2015. These data, released by the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on Tuesday (28/04), brought some positivity in Indonesia after listed companies’ weak Q1-2015 financial results led to concern and capital outflow.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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One of the ambitious targets of the Indonesian government is the realization of the “One Million Houses Program”. Through this program - scheduled to be launched on 30 April 2015 in Central Java by President Joko Widodo - the government aims to provide adequate housing facilities to low income citizens. Over half of these houses will be built using funds from the country’s state budget. State funds will also be used to finance the Housing Loan Liquidity Facility, government-backed mortgages for low-income people.

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Although Indonesia’s economic growth slowed further in 2014, there is optimism that growth will accelerate in 2015 despite sluggish global economic conditions (curbing Indonesia’s export performance) and Bank Indonesia’s relatively high interest rate environment. Indonesia’s central bank has raised its BI rate several times over the past one and a half years in an effort to combat high inflation (caused by fuel price hikes), curb capital outflows ahead of US monetary tightening, limit the current account deficit and support the rupiah.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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The Finance Ministry of Indonesia announced that it plans to inject USD 1.63 billion into state-owned financing company Sarana Multi Infrastruktur and to transform this company into an infrastructure bank in a move to boost infrastructure development across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The central government needs private capital to fund its massive infrastructure program for the next five years as it can only account for 30 percent of required investment. For the remainder it relies on private capital and state-owned enterprises.

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After five foreigners and one Indonesian citizen were executed by firing squad on early Sunday morning (18/01), diplomatic tensions have risen. Despite international appeals from Brazil and the Netherlands, the Indonesian government decided to go-ahead with the execution of six convicted drug traffickers, involving four men (from Brazil, the Netherlands, Malawi and Nigeria), and two women (from Indonesia and Vietnam). Brazil and the Netherlands have recalled their ambassadors from Jakarta.

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In his presentation at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January, Standard Chartered Bank Senior Economist Fauzi Ichsan said that despite the challenges amid global uncertain times, there remains plenty room and opportunity for Indonesia to grow robustly on the long-term. In fact, by 2030 Ichsan believes that Indonesia will be among the world's top ten countries in terms of largest economies. For investors it is important to understand the challenges and key pillars of economic growth.

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