After weeks of uncertainty, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced on Monday (17/11) that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) are to be raised by IDR 2,000 (USD $0.16) per liter starting from midnight. Gasoline (premium) is to be raised from IDR 6,500 to IDR 8,500 per liter, while diesel will be raised from IDR 5,500 to IDR 7,500 per liter. Earlier it was speculated that an IDR 3,000 per liter price hike would be announced. However, as global oil prices have declined sharply, this was considered an unnecessary burden for the people.

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After speculation started to rise that Indonesia would perhaps not raise prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) in November as recent declining global oil prices have managed to somewhat relieve the government’s budget deficit, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said over the weekend that the Indonesian government is still eager to raise these prices within a couple of weeks. However, he added that the price hike will be less than IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced today (after the Board of Governors’ meeting) that it keeps the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. The lending facility rate and the deposit rate are maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, said that interest rates were maintained as the country’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.07 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2014.

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Indonesian consumers are concerned about the looming subsidized fuel price hike this month according to the latest survey of Nielsen, a global information and measurement company. Based on the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions (covering the third quarter of 2014), 28% of respondents said that higher prices of subsidized fuels are among their top two main concerns. In the previous survey (which covered Q2-2014), the subsidized fuel price hike was not even mentioned among the top five concerns.

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The central bank of Indonesia is expected to keep its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at the next Board of Governors’ meeting (scheduled for Thursday 13 November 2014) in anticipation of accelerated inflation triggered by higher prices of subsidized fuels. The Indonesian government plans to raise prices of subsidized gasoline and diesel before the end of the month in an attempt to curb the country’s wide current account deficit and reallocate government funds to more structural or productive activities than fuel consumption.

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On 9 November 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014, October inflation, higher subsidized fuel subsidies, Islamic finance, unemployment, the IPO of Blue Bird, a crude palm oil update, Indonesia’s tax system, and more.

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Amid slowing economic growth, Indonesia’s unemployment rate increased slightly in August 2014. On Wednesday (05/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that 7.24 million Indonesians, or 5.94 percent of the country’s labour force, were without a job. In the previous unemployment report (covering conditions in the month February 2014), Indonesia’s unemployment rate stood at 5.70 percent of the country’s labour force (about 7.15 million Indonesians). The government agency releases Indonesia’s unemployment data twice per year.

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Jusuf Kalla, Vice President of Indonesia, confirmed that subsidized fuel prices will be raised this month. Although Kalla declined to announce the specific amount, analysts expect a sharp increase of between IDR 2,000 and 3,000 (roughly USD $0.21) per liter - a price hike of almost 50 percent - to prices of both gasoline and diesel. Currently, the price of premium gasoline is IDR 6,500 (USD $0.54) per liter and diesel IDR 5,500 (USD $0.46). Economists have long requested for higher subsidized fuel prices in Indonesia as these distort the economy.

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On Monday (03/11), several important macroeconomic data were released by statistics Indonesia. Firstly, inflation was relatively high in October at 0.47 percent month-on-month (m/m). Secondly, Indonesia posted another trade deficit in September (USD $270 million). Thirdly, Indonesia's October manufacturing activity showed a contraction (the country’s manufacturing Purchasing Manages' Index fell to a 14-month low of 49.2 in October). Lastly, a total of 791,300 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September.

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On 2 November 2014, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014, an October inflation update, developments in coal mining, Internet connectivity, Soechi Lines’ IPO, Joko Widodo’s new cabinet, and more.

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As Indonesia's inflation rate has eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) in October 2015 from 6.83 percent (y/y) in the previous month, and given that Indonesian inflation will ease more markedly in the last two months of 2015 as the impact of the subsidized fuel price hike in November 2014 will vanish, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) seems to have more scope to cut its current relatively high benchmark interest rate, hence giving rise to accelerated economic activity.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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Indonesia's heavily depreciated rupiah makes it more difficult for Indonesians to study abroad or to send their children to universities abroad without having the financial aid in the form of a scholarship. For those that are thinking of making such a decision, they need to take into account the performance of the Indonesian rupiah as well as the inflation outlook in the country of destination. So far in 2015, the Indonesian rupiah has depreciated 18 percent against the US dollar, 9 percent against the euro, 14 percent against China's yuan, and 2.4 percent against the Australian dollar.

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The central bank of Indonesia announced on Thursday (17/09) that it the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. According to Bank Indonesia (BI) this decision is consistent with its efforts to push inflation towards the target corridor of 4±1 percent in both 2015 and 2016. In addition, the decision is also part of Bank Indonesia’s measures to anticipate possibilities of a Fed Fund Rate (FFR) hike.

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The number of poor people in Indonesia rose. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released today (15/09), there were 28.59 million poor people in Indonesia in March 2015, equivalent to 11.22 percent of the total Indonesian population. In September 2014 Indonesia’s poverty rate stood at 10.96 percent of the Indonesian population, or 27.73 million people. Thus within a time-span of six months, the number of poor Indonesians rose by around 860,000 people. BPS releases data on the country’s poverty level twice per year covering the months March and September.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced today (01/09) that Indonesian inflation has eased slightly to 7.18 percent (y/y) in August 2015, from 7.26 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. On a month-on-month basis, inflation climbed 0.39 percent in August, below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s manufacturing sector continued to contract in August, albeit conditions improved from the preceding month.

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During Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors it was decided on 18th August 2015 to hold the BI Rate at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the Deposit Facility rate at 5.50 percent and the Lending Facility rate at 8.00 percent. The decision is consonant with efforts to control inflation within the target corridor of 4±1 percent in 2015 and 2016. In the short term, Bank Indonesia (BI) is focused on efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid uncertainty in the global economy, by optimizing monetary operations in the rupiah and the foreign exchange market.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) predicts mounting inflationary pressures in the months June and July due to the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities, the possible impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, and the new school year. Bank Indonesia expects to see inflation at 0.66 percent month-to-month (m/m) in June 2015, particularly driven by volatile food prices (a normal phenomenon ahead of Idul Fitri). On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to accelerate to 7.40 percent, from 7.15 percent in May.

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Most stock markets and currencies in Southeast Asia weakened on Friday (29/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and the rupiah. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.40 percent to 5,216.38 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 13,224 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Over the past week, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened primarily due to the Greek debt crisis, looming higher US interest rates and the lack of positive domestic factors.

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Investors are clearly waiting for results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governor’s Meeting, conducted today (19/05). In this monthly policy meeting, Indonesia’s central bank will decide on its monetary approach. For most market participants it is of crucial importance to learn whether Bank Indonesia will adjust its interest rate policy in order to support the country’s economic growth (which slowed to a five-year low in the first quarter of 2015). Ahead of results, scheduled to be released this afternoon, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weaken.

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