The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s inflation figure in December 2013 (month-to-month) will be below 0.5 percent. Up to the third week of December, inflation increased 0.36 percent according to data from Bank Indonesia. Considering the month of December always brings along inflationary pressures due to seasonal celebrations (Christmas and New Year), Bank Indonesia's inflation estimate of below 0.5 percent can be considered rather low.

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The DBS Bank expects that Indonesia's inflation rate will reach 8.2 percent (year-on-year) by the end of 2013, supported by a low monthly inflation rate in the last month of the year. The DBS Bank believes that the pace of inflation in December 2013 will be slightly higher than the country's November inflation (0.12 percent). In the period January to November 2013, inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy has accumulated to 7.79 percent (yoy). The bank also stated that it expects inflation to reach 6.7 percent in full-year 2014.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects a slowdown in GDP growth in major emerging market economies and decline in commodity prices, and more recently, a reversal in push factors tied to a prospective exit from extraordinarily easy global monetary conditions, has put pressure on Indonesia’s balance of payments and heightened its vulnerability to shocks. Domestic policy accommodation and rising energy subsidies have also given rise to increased external and fiscal imbalances.

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On Sunday (15/12), Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. Our weekly newsletter contains the most important news stories on the subject of Indonesia's economy, politics and social issues that were reported in the last seven days. This week's edition includes analyses of Indonesia's benchmark interest rate, current account deficit and geothermal energy development. Visit our Join Us section if you want to sign up for our free newsletter. Our latest newsletter can be viewed here.

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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank Indonesia (BI) signed the third Bilateral Swap Arrangement (BSA) on 12 December 2013. The arrangement is an expansion of the current BSA which almost doubles the size of the facility from USD $12 billion to $22.76 billion. This arrangement also introduces a new feature in the form of a crisis prevention scheme to support potential and/or actual liquidity needs. Both institutions also agreed to establish a cross-border liquidity arrangement to enhance the stability of financial markets.

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In Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors' meeting - held on Thursday (12/12) - it was decided to keep the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Communication Department Difi A. Johansyah said that the current rate of 7.50 percent is in line with the institution's inflation target of 4.5 percent (plus or minus one percent). The lending facility and deposite facility (Fasbi) rates are also maintained at 7.5 percent and 5.75 percent respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that Indonesia’s official reserve assets totaled USD $97.0 billion at the end of November 2013 thus unchanged from the end of the previous month. Bank Indonesia stated that this amount is equivalent to 5.5 months of import or 5.3 months of import and servicing of government external debt. After having grown sharply in recent years, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen from USD $112.8 billion at end-2012 as Bank Indonesia tried to support the depreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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Household consumption in Indonesia has improved in November 2013 according to Bank Indonesia's Consumer Survey. The central bank's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose 4.8 points to 114.3 points. This improvement is attributable to increased available job opportunities and increased purchases of durable goods ahead of Christmas 2013 and New Year. Lastly, Indonesian consumers are more positive about Indonesia's economic condition in the coming six months.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its depreciation on Wednesday (04/12). The central bank's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate fell 1.09 percent to IDR 11,960 per US dollar after absorbing the impact of the currency's weak performance on yesterday's spot market. On Tuesday (03/12), local Indonesian companies were buying US dollars at a more attractive exchange rate after the currency had appreciated previously, thus placing serious downward pressure on the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Inflation in November 2013 continued to show a decelerating trend at 0.12 percent (month-to-month) or 8.37 percent (year-on-year). Although higher compared to October 2013 inflation (0.09 percent), November inflation was lower than its historical pattern in the last five years. The low inflation rate was influenced by deflation in the volatile food group with deflation of 0.57 percent (mtm), a result of the correction in chilli prices, especially in Java and eastern region of Indonesia as well as the decline in the chicken meat price in almost all areas of Indonesia.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.

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Data from the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) show Indonesia's current account deficit widened modestly to USD $2.4 billion (or 1.0 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product, GDP) in the first quarter of 2017. This increase was driven by rising deficits in the oil & gas trade balance and primary income. In the last quarter of 2016 the current account deficit was at (an upward revised) 0.9 percent of GDP. Despite slight widening, Indonesia's current account balance is regarded as being in a healthy state, especially considering the major improvement compared to Q1-2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate policy unchanged at the March 2017 policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations especially after Bank Indonesia officials had stated that they see few room for monetary easing in the foreseeable future considering the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key rate several times this year (which could encourage capital outflows from Indonesia), while inflationary pressures in Indonesia are rising.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate, the BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate (BI-7 day RR Rate), at 4.75 percent at the February 2017 policy meeting as Indonesia's inflation rate is expected to rise amid growing domestic demand and administered price adjustments, while the central bank also tries to mitigate the impact of looming normalization of US interest rates (expected later this year). Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia kept its deposit facility and lending facility rates at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, announced on Friday (10/02) that Indonesia's balance of payments surplus reached USD $4.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 as the capital and financial accounts' surplus managed to (more than) compensate for the USD $1.8 billion current account deficit (or 0.8 percent of the country's gross domestic product/GDP) in the same quarter. Regarding full-year 2016, Indonesia posted a USD $12.1 billion surplus in its balance of payments, while its current account deficit was equivalent to 1.8 percent of GDP.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged at the January 2017 policy meeting on Thursday (19/01). The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the Deposit Facility and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. The decisions of Bank Indonesia are in line with analysts' forecasts. Due to risks of capital outflows Indonesia's central bank had few room to ease monetary policy.

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Stock markets in Asia are mixed, yet tepid on Friday (16/12) after the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate regime for the second time in a decade on Wednesday (14/12). Although the Fed's move was widely anticipated (and therefore already "priced in" to a high degree) it still resulted in some capital outflows from Asia's stock markets on Thursday (13/12). Japan, as usual, is the notable exception as US dollar strength (or yen weakness) makes Japan's export-oriented stocks more attractive.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the December 2016 policy meeting, nearly a day after the US Federal Reserve decided to raise its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to the range 0.50 - 0.75 percent. Moves of both central banks were expected. Monetary tightening in the USA triggers capital outflows from emerging markets (the Indonesian rupiah depreciated around 0.70 percent against the US dollar on Thursday). Therefore, Bank Indonesia had little room to seek monetary easing.

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The Bank of Indonesia recently resorted to a sudden cut in interest rate (by 25 bps to 4.75 percent) at its 20th October 2016 meeting. This followed a 25 bps reduction in September and thus this is the sixth time this year that the Indonesian central bank has elected to loosen monetary policy.

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